ANKENY, Iowa — Former President Donald Trump’s poll numbers in Iowa show him poised to win the first-in-the-nation contest Monday with more than 50% of the Republican vote, which would set a state record and propel him into the critical New Hampshire primary as the unbeatable leader in the presidential race.
The expectations for a landslide victory in Iowa, however, raise the threat that the former president could underperform with voters. That would weaken him ahead of the Jan. 23 primary in New Hampshire, where an ascending Nikki Haley has closed in on his once-gigantic lead.
“In Iowa, it’s all about exceeding expectations,” David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, told The Washington Times. “If voters are expecting Donald Trump to exceed 50% in Iowa, using the polling averages as a guide, and he falls short of that, many will be saying that his support is weaker and more fluid than it appears.”
Mr. Trump and his campaign team, aware of the expectation threat, are warning their base in Iowa not to be complacent.
“We have to treat Monday as though we are 10 points back,” the candidate’s son Donald Trump Jr. told supporters at an event outside Des Moines on Thursday. Do not trust the polls, he said, and fight apathy.
Upending Mr. Trump’s aura of inevitability is the outcome that his top opponents, Ms. Haley, a former South Carolina governor, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, are targeting in the caucuses, where the specialized format for choosing candidates can produce results that defy the polls.
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A lower-than-expected finish for Mr. Trump could revive Mr. DeSantis’ flagging poll numbers and propel Ms. Haley into an even stronger position in New Hampshire. She is in second place in New Hampshire, where one recent poll put her within single digits of catching Mr. Trump.
The former president declared the poll “crooked.”
Ms. Haley would become an even bigger threat to Mr. Trump if she defeats Mr. DeSantis in Iowa. He had been solidly in second place, but Ms. Haley moved slightly ahead.
“If she holds even with DeSantis, let alone better, I think she comes out of here really well,” said Dennis J. Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University.
Mr. DeSantis hasn’t been able to cut into Mr. Trump’s lead in Iowa polling, but his top supporters say he is poised to finish much closer to the former president than the numbers predict.
“There’s a real opportunity for Gov. DeSantis,” Cody Hoefert, a former chair of the Iowa Republican Party and a DeSantis backer, told The Washington Times. “The former president has set expectations so high in Iowa that I think he’s going to struggle to reach them.”
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Mr. Hoefert and other DeSantis supporters say the polls don’t reflect an increase in support for their candidate as voters make up their minds.
“I’ve talked to people embedded with all the campaigns, and they say similar things: that DeSantis is closing and Trump’s lead is not what he thinks it is,” Mr. Hoefert said.
Mr. Trump, aware of the risk of underperforming, has tried to play the expectation game both ways. He recently boasted of his “scary” 35-point lead over Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis while warning his base not to get too complacent on caucus day, which weather forecasters predict could be one of the coldest in decades.
“Forget polls that show we’re 35 points up,” Mr. Trump told Iowa supporters last weekend at a rally in Mason City. “Pretend we’re 1 point down.”
Mr. Trump’s massive advantage over his opponents in Iowa is impossible to ignore.
He could exceed 50% of the vote, which would put him well beyond a 12-point win over his closest opponents, a margin that set a Republican caucus record in 1988 when Sen. Bob Dole won over Pat Robertson and George H.W. Bush with just 35% of the vote.
Winning a majority of caucus voters would solidify Mr. Trump as an unbeatable primary candidate and potentially force out Mr. DeSantis, who is polling fourth in New Hampshire after campaigning almost exclusively in Iowa.
“If Trump wins this going away in Iowa, I think that is probably the beginning of the end,” said Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Faith & Freedom Coalition. “I do believe DeSantis, with all the time he has spent here, the humongous amount of resources he has put into Iowa, if he actually doesn’t win the caucus or come very, very close within 2 or 3%, I don’t see how he goes on to New Hampshire to make his case.”
The Trump campaign isn’t taking any chances. Although Mr. Trump has appeared at fewer events over the past month than his lagging opponents, he is scheduled to attend multiple Iowa rallies through the weekend.
Mr. Paleologos said Mr. Trump could win close to 60% of the caucus vote, but only if he wins a last-minute endorsement from Vivek Ramaswamy, who has a strong base of support among young voters in Iowa and is polling at about 7%.
Mr. Trump has a 73% favorability rating among Iowa voters, he said, and nearly three-quarters of them plan to vote for him.
Getting more than 50% of the vote will be critical for the former president, or the narrative may shift against him.
“Others will say that a majority of Iowa caucus voters voted against Trump,” Mr. Paleologos said. “That puts enormous pressure on the Trump campaign organization to deliver a landslide win.”
• Susan Ferrechio reported from Jacksonville, Florida.
• Susan Ferrechio can be reached at sferrechio@washingtontimes.com.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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