China looms over Taiwan’s voters in final days of heated election

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Domestic issues such as stagnant wages and a growing wealth divide give candidates plenty to debate ahead of Taiwan’s elections on Saturday, but the long shadow of China and its reaction to the results are never far from voters’ minds.

That shadow is evident in political speeches, voters’ remarks, and the seminars and conferences on the sidelines of the high-stakes political duel that will decide the island democracy’s next president and the makeup of its Legislative Yuan.

Relations with the mainland have been fraught for eight years under outgoing President Tsai Ing-wen, whom Chinese Communist leaders repeatedly accused of harboring dreams of declaring independence.

China is inescapably an issue on the campaign trail.

“Look at Hong Kong! Jimmy Lai is in prison!” former Premier Su Tsen-chang said in a tub-thumping speech to thousands at an evening rally held by Ms. Tsai’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, or DPP. “Look at Xinjiang! One million people are in re-education camps!”

Mr. Su was referring to an imprisoned anti-Beijing media magnate and to the human rights abuses widely alleged in western China’s Muslim province of Xinjiang.

He was not finished.

“You ask us to trust President Xi?” he said about Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has made the eventual absorption of Taiwan under Chinese control a central thrust of his leadership.

“Protect Taiwan! I am in!” the flag-waving crowd roared in an appreciative chant.

In a social media post on Thursday, Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu effectively told the mainland to butt out as the elections near. China’s “repeated interference steals the focus,” Mr. Wu said, and Beijing “should stop messing with other countries’ elections and hold their own.”

The voters’ voice

In this country of more than 23 million, officially recognized by a shrinking number of small countries and blocked from world organizations because of the outsized influence of its giant neighbor and political rival across the Taiwan Strait, the Taiwanese people have a sense of gratitude that the world is paying attention to the elections.

Foreign journalists navigating dense crowds at the DPP rally were given thumbs up, helped over barriers and even thanked simply for being in the city.

Among five rally attendees asked about the biggest electoral issue, one mentioned Taiwan’s international status and another LGBTQ rights. Three mentioned China.

“We have grown up here. We don’t want to be humiliated by others, by China,” said Huang Chin-chen, a 67-year-old retired laborer who was plastering a green DPP sticker on this reporter’s jacket. “We are different. We don’t belong to China.”

The DPP presidential candidate, Lai Ching-te, Ms. Tsai’s vice president, also known as William Lai, is “international and smart,” said Alice Lin, a 34-year-old saleswoman. “People should know how to stand up to China.”

“We don’t want to be a second Hong Kong,” said student Yi Hsing-ling, 21. “My ex-boyfriend is from Hong Kong, so I saw everything that happened there.”

Even supporters of the conservative opposition Kuomintang party, or KMT, which takes a more accommodating line toward relations with Beijing, talk about China’s centrality in the elections — albeit from a different perspective.

“Taiwan is a sovereign, independent nation in reality,” said Jack Chen, a 60-ish activist waving a Taiwanese flag as the local KMT candidate visited Taipei’s Zhongshan District. “We don’t need to call it independent.”

Though the DPP’s Mr. Lai said earlier this week that he favors restarting dialogue with Beijing after years of non-contact, concerns hover about his past talk on the virtues of independence. That step might win Taiwan seats in various international organizations, but it would be the equivalent of waving a massive red flag in front of China.

KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih, a former mayor of New Taipei City, tried to walk a fine line at a session with reporters Thursday. He said he favored building up Taiwan’s armed forces in the face of repeated Chinese provocations but would seek to restart direct talks with Beijing.

“We have to let [China’s leaders] know they have to bear the cost of the war,” Mr. Hou said, but “I want to use dialogue to minimize the risks.”

Many fear a DPP victory could jeopardize extensive trade and investment interests crossing the Taiwan Strait. Mr. Chen said Taiwanese who conduct business in China are now greeted with suspicion back home.

“Now, when a local manager visits China, our country’s security asks him, ‘Why are you going to China?’” he said. “What is that? Anyone can visit anywhere.

“They should not use [talk of] ‘Reds’ to win the election,” he added. “The KMT is the party of white hairs — do you understand?”

It was a wordplay on the KMT’s aging voter base and Mr. Chen’s belief that a KMT win would allow the Taiwanese to grow old in peace.

Anti-China voices

Anti-China voices warn that appearing to kowtow to Beijing’s overt and covert pressure would set off multiple alarms.

They say China’s alleged interference is a warning for the many nations — including Indonesia, South Korea, Britain and the U.S. — scheduled to hold elections this year.

“Of all the countries in Asia, Taiwan is the place to observe,” said a representative of the Kuma Academy, which teaches citizens survival and civic defense, and who spoke anonymously for fear of being targeted. “Taiwan is an open space. We are observing [artificial intelligence] being used to manipulate information on social media.”

Taiwan’s campaign and vote will likely set a precedent.

“This year is a huge election year in the world, and Taiwan is the first,” said Shih Fang-long, a visiting scholar from the London School of Economics. “Our citizens are under threat and confused, our families are divided, our friends are divided. It is very upsetting.”

That is the social cost. A prominent China critic says the political cost is higher.

“China wants to control the government of Taiwan and further weaken the defense of Taiwan,” said Robert Tsao, 76, founder of chipmaker United Microelectronics Corp., who has donated to organizations that teach Taiwanese civil defense. “People ask, ‘Is a rotation [of power] better for a democratic system?’ but two of our three major parties are under the influence of China.”

Taiwan’s fate might not be in its own hands. China’s internal problems, such as faltering growth and falling birthrates, could tempt its leaders to take action against Taiwan to divert attention and unify the populace, said Marco Ho, a co-founder of Kuma Academy.

Noting that Mr. Xi broke the Communist Party precedent to become China’s first three-term leader, Mr. Ho said, “He needs a good reason for breaking tradition. For Xi, it is getting Taiwan.

“If war happens, it will happen not because of what Taiwan does but because of China’s problems.”

The Taiwanese say support from global democracies will be critical to deter Beijing.

“We want peace and harmony with China. We are way too small,” said Ms. Shih. “But if all democracies join us, Taiwan will not be so small.”

Elmer Yuen, a 74-year-old businessman exiled from his native Hong Kong, urged voters to adopt a bolder, more radical stance.

“I tell people the most important thing for Taiwan — and the world — is to get rid of the Chinese Communist Party,” he said. “Taiwan now is like England in World War II. There should be a Churchill. The U.S. will help, but they need someone willing to fight.”

Mr. Yuen has taken on a mission that infuriates Beijing: He seeks to establish a shadow government in London made up of fellow Hong Kong exiles.

Last year, his ex-wife and two children, residents of Hong Kong, were detained and questioned by police in the former British colony over his activism.

Surveying the major party candidates on the ballot Saturday, he laments that no such figure is in sight for Taiwan.

“To be honest, [the DPP’s Mr. Lai] is a good man who will stabilize Taiwan, but he is no Churchill,” Mr. Yuen said. “We need somebody with tremendous courage. … Defense is not the solution. We need to get rid of the CCP.”