Key U.S. allies in Seoul, Tokyo hit by scandals, plunging polls

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SEOUL, South Korea — Washington has been keen to encourage the new cooperative spirit uniting Seoul and Tokyo, enabling the trilateralism U.S. defense planners have long sought to project in a region overshadowed by China and North Korea.

The voters in two key U.S. allies in East Asia are far less pleased with their leaders as China and North Korea threaten to sorely test President Biden’s high hopes at a precedent-breaking August summit at Camp David.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is reeling from a succession of party scandals, and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is facing fallout from questions over his wife’s behavior. Both have dangerously low approval ratings, but the South Korean leader looks more vulnerable.

Mr. Kishida’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party, or LDP, looks firmly entrenched in power in Tokyo, Japanese political watchers say.

Mr. Yoon’s People Power Party, or PPP, is a minority in the National Assembly, and general elections in April could erode its position further. That could leave the president politically crippled with three years still to serve.

Ratings woes, wife troubles

The conservative Mr. Yoon won the presidential election by less than 1% in 2022. Facing an opposition-controlled house, the president, who had no prior diplomatic or overseas experience, surprised many in Seoul by focusing on foreign affairs early in his term.

His initiatives include patching up decades of historical animosity with former colonial power Japan, creating a nuclear consultative group, and expanding nuclear protection from the U.S. against an attack from North Korea.

With National Assembly elections looming, the scandal known as Diorgate has engulfed his wife, Kim Keon-hee, at a terrible time for the government.

In a bizarre affair in 2022, a Christian pastor met Mrs. Kim and gave her a Dior handbag worth $2,250. She asked him the reason for the gift but accepted the bag. The pastor’s aim in approaching Mrs. Kim was to win a meeting to urge Mr. Yoon to soften his hard-line policy toward Pyongyang. He captured footage of the event with a secret camera.

The news and footage broke in November, embarrassing Mr. Yoon, Mrs. Kim and the ruling PPP. In a rare TV interview last week, Mr. Yoon accused the pastor of a “political maneuver.”

Instead of apologizing on behalf of his wife, he excused her because of her good nature. “The fact that she was unable to coldheartedly reject him was the problem,” he said.

The wording generated fresh controversy. The small opposition New Future Party accused national broadcaster KBS, which interviewed Mr. Yoon, of becoming “a PR agency for the president’s family.” The main opposition has had a field day demanding an investigation into the actions of the South Korean first lady.

Low ratings are nothing new for Mr. Yoon, who was hovering around 30% positive within months of taking office. His latest ratings, 29%, combined with upcoming elections, could ignite a bigger political explosion.

“A lot of the public are gossiping about the Dior bag, though it is not a big thing. It should not affect their personal or economic circumstances,” said Yang Sung-mook, a former foreign affairs adviser to the opposition. “But it will grow in the public mind.”

That is ominous. Former President Park Geun-hye, though unmarried, was politically destroyed by her tight relationship with a corrupt associate, Choi Soon-sil. Ms. Park was impeached, out of office and imprisoned in 2017.

Mr. Yoon’s predecessor, Moon Jae-in, was also damaged politically by his close association with a friend he hired to reform the legal system. The friend, a colorful academic named Cho Kuk, lost the high-profile reform fight and became embroiled in his wife’s forgery case.

The big beneficiary of that scandal was Mr. Yoon. As chief prosecutor, he used the episode as a springboard to a campaign that gave him the presidency.

First ladies have proved problematic for previous presidents. Most notably, former President Roh Moo-hyun died by suicide after leaving office in 2009 amid a corruption probe that targeted his wife. After Roh’s death, the investigation was dropped.

Calling Mrs. Kim “a liability from the beginning,” Mr. Yang warned that momentum could build against Mr. Yoon. “If he loses the [April] general election, that could build up a loss to the next presidential election.”

That contest is not due until 2027, suggesting potentially weak leadership in Seoul for a prolonged period.

“A ‘lame duck’ president is usually the last few months or the last year in office, and it ties the president’s hands,” said Michael Breen, author of “The New Koreans.” “But this could be a ‘lame duck’ for three years,” with the opposition able to veto virtually all of his major proposals.

“If Yoon is going to face a so-called vetocracy, we will see stalemate and confrontation between the presidential office and the assembly for three years and people will be exhausted,” said Lim Eun-jung, an expert on Japan and Korea relations at Kongju National University, who expects voters to elect a “patchwork” assembly in April.

“That is why the ruling party is really obsessed with this election,” she added.

Kishida wobbly, LDP secure

In Japan, Mr. Kishida is facing what some consider the biggest political graft scandal in decades. Last year, a succession of LDP lawmakers and aides were found to be using money raised from selling tickets to events to pay into party slush funds and then understating the amounts on their taxes.

Local press reports say 10 people, including three lawmakers, are under scrutiny from prosecutors. Mr. Kishida has acknowledged that 37 lawmakers are correcting their personal financial records and statements.

The prime minister apologized publicly and removed implicated lawmakers from his Cabinet last month. “I humbly regret and made a determination to have policy groups make a complete break from money and personnel affairs,” he said.

An earlier imbroglio linked the LDP with the Unification Church.

In 2022, former Prime Minister and LDP icon Shinzo Abe was assassinated. The killer said he acted because his family had been coerced into making large donations to the church more than a decade ago. The right-wing Mr. Abe had connections with the church, which espouses anti-communism.

That drew attention to linkages between the LDP and the Unification Church, which has reportedly mobilized members to support the conservative party during elections. In September 2022, the party revealed that nearly half of the members it surveyed had relations with the church and Mr. Kishida removed seven ministers with links to the church. The Japanese branch of the church, whose parent organization owns The Washington Times, denies wrongdoing and is now battling left-wing critics trying to take away its tax-exempt status as a religious organization.

The double whammy of scandals is having an impact. A January poll found the approval rating for Mr. Kishida’s Cabinet had fallen to 27%.

Yet, the LDP, which holds the upper and lower houses of the Diet with a religious-based coalition partner, looks firm. The January poll found the LDP to have approval ratings of 31% — well ahead of the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, with just 8%.

“Institutionally, it is very difficult to overthrow this huge giant, the LDP,” said Ms. Lim. “The Japanese Democratic Party don’t have real alternative ideas either, and as long as they are not that popular, Japanese, who are quite conservative, tend to keep choosing the ruling party.”

Although the LDP is secure, Mr. Kishida may not be. The party holds an internal leadership contest in September. 

Correction: An earlier version of this article misspelled the name of Lim Eun-jung.