Urban transit agencies fear ‘death spiral’ as fewer people ride public transportation after COVID

Urban transit agencies are losing riders and increasingly fear a “death spiral” that will cut rail and bus services and drive away more passengers.

Public transportation systems from Washington to San Francisco raised fares and lobbied for more government subsidies last year as ridership plateaued at 71% of pre-pandemic levels, industry insiders told The Washington Times. They said someone must pay to keep emptier vehicles running frequently, or more commuters will turn to cars, ride-sharing, bicycling and other transit modes.

Remote work and fears of rampant urban crime in the U.S. have contributed to an annual reduction in transit trips from 10 billion to 7 billion. Experts no longer expect those 3 billion trips to return but say it could be worse.

“This is the most significant crisis since I started working in mass transit in the 1970s,” said Arizona State University professor Steven Polzin, who researches changing travel patterns. “It’s a real problem. And until someone does something, people aren’t going to just jump back onto transit while they don’t feel safe.”

Fare hikes and increased government subsidies might not stave off service cuts, said Mr. Polzin, a former service and policy analyst for transit agencies in Chicago, Cleveland and Dallas who served as a Department of Transportation official in the Trump administration. He noted that reduced ridership has especially hurt New York City, Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago, Los Angeles, Philadelphia and Washington.

In an email to The Times, a spokesperson said the Federal Transit Administration is tracking how remote work has affected daily travel patterns since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The email touted $25 million in funding that Congress and the Biden administration distributed to 50 transit agencies in 24 states via the American Rescue Plan Act in 2021.

“Transit ridership recovery since the pandemic continues, and some agencies are seeing more ridership than before 2019,” the FTA said.

Agencies still need billions of dollars to continue offering the same number of rides, and systems in major cities will face hard choices if that money doesn’t materialize over the next year.

Last month, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey proposed roughly $300 million in infusions for their states’ busiest urban transit systems.

California and New York poured funds into transit systems last year, but most other states have not moved to do the same. Whether legislatures will spring for more funding is unclear.

In San Francisco, the Bay Area Rapid Transit system raised fares last month by an average of 23 cents, or 5.5%, citing the need for an additional $26 million to cover the cost of inflation.

In New York City, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s budget shortfall could reach $3 billion by 2025, exhausting the $15 billion it received in federal pandemic aid.

An MTA survey released on Jan. 29 showed that 52% of customers this fall expressed overall satisfaction with New York City’s subways, down from 56% in spring 2023.

Middle- and upper-class tourists no longer feel safe on empty New York trains and buses, said Nicole Gelinas, a senior fellow specializing in urban economics at the conservative Manhattan Institute for Policy Research.

“You’re not going to be murdered, but it shows the increased disorder from more people sleeping on the subway, openly using drugs and aggressively panhandling,” Ms. Gelinas said. “These things existed before COVID but have proliferated since then, and they affect people’s decisions about bicycling to the office or taking the train.”

The Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority has projected a budget shortfall of $750 million by fiscal 2025. It said the deficit would systematically reduce Metrobus and Metrorail service by two-thirds without additional funding.

On July 1, Metro raised the fare of an average rail trip for the first time in five years. The 3% increase is intended to help pay for reduced fares for low-income riders in the nation’s capital.

As part of a multifaceted strategy, the agency has announced it will ask Maryland, Virginia and D.C. officials to increase their annual subsidy to support enhanced transit operations over the next several years. The jurisdictions’ subsidies fund more than half of this year’s operating budget.

At a meeting last week of the Metro board of directors, a midyear progress report showed agency revenue was $26.4 million below budget projections but noted the system expects to finish fiscal 2024, which ends June 30, “with a balanced budget due to aggressive expense management.”

Another part of the strategy includes a proposal to raise fares by 12.5% to boost revenue by $25 million in fiscal 2025. Base fares would increase from $2 to $2.25 on weekdays and up to 25% during late nights and weekends, with a $2.50 cap.

Cities fund their public transportation systems through fares with public subsidies from various taxes, fees, state money and federal grants.

Although fares account for a small fraction of public transportation costs in many small cities, they cover up to half of budget expenses in some large urban areas.

Mr. Polzin said large reductions in hours, staff or late-night services will depend on urban transit systems’ success at persuading government officials at all levels to increase subsidies “within the next year.”

“Whether or not they get it remains to be seen,” he said. “There’s not a lot of empathy for big cities that are already finding money for immigrant sanctuaries and the homeless without enforcing the law against criminal tendencies.”

For more information, visit The Washington Times COVID-19 resource page.