OPINION:
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Having served in the KGB and as director of Russia’s Federal Security Service, Russian President Vladimir Putin naturally turns to cloak-and-dagger espionage to take the fight to his adversaries, foreign and domestic. He also holds a black belt in judo, which teaches the art of using an opponent’s strength against them.
For Mr. Putin, that has meant a long history of multifarious attacks on the U.S. in the unregulated world of cyberspace, which has been seen as a powerful force multiplier for free expression and free enterprise, especially in democracies.
In addition to online spying on U.S. government agencies and infiltrating our critical infrastructure, Mr. Putin has ruthlessly targeted social media and networking sites to degrade the U.S. political process, interfere in elections and undermine popular faith in democratic institutions. Liberty, freedom and democracy constitute an existential threat to Mr. Putin’s one-man rule.
The Russian leader is used to having his way in what the U.S. military has defined as the “fifth domain” of war. But the CIA, which just launched its third Russian-language social media video designed to recruit Russian sources, has been turning the tables on him. We will never be privy to the metrics, but if the CIA’s outreach to disaffected Russians were not effective, then the agency would have surely abandoned this line of operation after the first two videos.
The CIA campaign is focused on Russian officials, particularly military and intelligence officers, who — while understandably not willing to go public with their reservations — recognize Mr. Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine for the barbaric and costly war that it is. They know all about the economic costs of Mr. Putin’s failed invasion and about the hundreds of thousands of casualties that have decimated Russia’s armed forces. They have to be disconcerted that the war has severely weakened Russia’s international standing — how humiliating for Russia to be on its knees, dependent on China to buy its energy at reduced rates, on North Korea for artillery, and on Iran for military drones.
And while Russia is focused on pouring its limited resources into the Ukrainian meat grinder, China is steadily gaining ground in Russia’s traditional sphere of influence in Central Asia.
Disaffected Russians who watch this latest video will no doubt appreciate the CIA’s sympathy for their plight, especially the part about holding Mr. Putin and his cronies responsible for their crimes. Educated viewers will be reminded of celebrated Cold War heroes such as Oleg Penkovsky — the “spy who saved the world” — and “Billion Dollar Spy” Adolf Tolkachev, who directed their ire against the corrupt Soviet leadership of the era.
Crucially, the video also offers genuine Russian patriots a way to channel their concerns by securely contacting the CIA. Considering deputy national security adviser and former President Dmitry Medvedev’s threats that Russia might resort to using nuclear weapons in its clash with the West over Ukraine, there should be plenty of private motivation among Russian officials to help the U.S. mitigate risks to the globe.
“Those around you may not want to hear the truth. But we do. You are not powerless,” the video says. “The top leadership has sold the country out for palaces and yachts at a time when our soldiers are chewing rotten potatoes and firing prehistoric weapons.”
There can be no doubt that the Biden administration is pressing the nation’s intelligence agencies to produce the most accurate analysis of Mr. Putin’s plans and intentions. Kremlin decision-making is notoriously opaque, and without well-placed human sources, our foreign policy would be flying blind.
But getting that insight demands a focus well beyond Russia’s war plans for Ukraine. Also of interest are Mr. Putin’s cyber attacks on our critical infrastructure, private sector and government agencies; the Kremlin’s warming ties with China, North Korea and Iran; and spy operations directed against the U.S. and its allies.
Russia is the centerpiece in this century’s clash between dictatorships and democracies. Mr. Putin has always referred to the United States as Russia’s “main enemy.” Speaking last July following Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed mutiny, CIA Director William Burns remarked that “disaffection with the war will continue to gnaw away at the Russian leadership beneath the steady diet of state propaganda and practiced repression.”
The war in Ukraine has become what bestselling author Robin Dreeke, retired chief of the FBI’s Counterintelligence Behavior Analysis Program, calls a “pain point” precisely for those Russian officials whom the CIA seeks to contact. Russians who view the CIA video will no doubt remember their country’s maxim “He who does not take risks does not drink Champagne.”
The CIA is looking for a few good Russians, ones who believe that fortune does indeed favor the brave.
• Daniel N. Hoffman is a retired clandestine services officer and former chief of station with the Central Intelligence Agency.
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