Trump’s pivot on Social Security throws a political curveball at Democrats

Democrats won’t be able to accuse former President Donald Trump of planning to cut Social Security benefits.

As Mr. Trump gets closer to securing the Republican presidential nomination, Democrats will have to shelve their traditional line of attack on the threat of GOP cuts to entitlements.

Mr. Trump, 77, has pivoted sharply away from the Republican Party’s long-standing proposals to save Social Security by raising the retirement age or reducing benefits.

Instead, Mr. Trump promised not to make any cuts and to save the program from insolvency by ramping up revenue from exporting U.S. energy.

His untested plan will undoubtedly draw criticism and questions, but not the political damage that could be inflicted by Democrats if he endorsed slashing benefits or raising the retirement age, as his GOP opponent, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, has done, to save the ailing program.

Ms. Haley, 51, chose to tackle Social Security’s looming insolvency head-on during the Republican debates, which Mr. Trump skipped.

Ms. Haley said Social Security is running out of money and won’t be around for young people if the program is not reformed today.

Without providing specifics, she said those in their 20s “should plan on their retirement age being increased.” Ms. Haley also supports limiting Social Security benefits for the ultra-wealthy who don’t need them, and she’s called for reforming Medicare, a major driver of the nation’s staggering debt.

Both Democrats and Mr. Trump pounced on her statement as a threat to the nearly 67 million people who receive Social Security benefits. Ms. Haley’s team responded that she was the only candidate willing to discuss the looming entitlement crisis.

DNC National Press Secretary Sarafina Chitika last month accused Ms. Haley of “leading the charge to gut these essential lifelines for millions of working families and seniors, leaving them high and dry.”

Democrats can’t lob the same charge at Mr. Trump, who is barreling undefeated toward the GOP presidential nomination.

Nearly 25 years ago, Mr. Trump publicly backed raising the retirement age to 70 to preserve Social Security, which is rapidly running out of money and will require cuts to benefits within a decade without reforms.

Mr. Trump said in 2000 that he was also open to steering money away from Social Security by allowing private investment of some payroll taxes.

But since his first campaign for president in 2016, Mr. Trump has largely ditched his support for those reforms and has pledged to preserve the programs as is.

In a December town hall interview on Fox News, Mr. Trump said Social Security can be shored up with the “incredible wealth under our feet.”

The former president was referring to the nation’s significant oil and gas reserves that can be extracted and sold.

“You don’t have to touch Social Security,” Mr. Trump said. “We have more money laying in the ground, far greater than anything we can do by hurting senior citizens with their Social Security.”

Bipartisan groups of lawmakers and think tanks have proposed plans to keep Social Security solvent by either raising taxes or trimming benefits.

Sen. Angus King, an independent who votes with Democrats, and Sen. Bill Cassidy, Louisiana Republican, led a bipartisan group of lawmakers last year in a quest to find a way to save Social Security from an estimated 23% cut in benefits set to take effect by 2032.

They devised a preliminary plan to shore up the program in part by investing $1.5 trillion in federal funds in the stock market. Under the plan, those funds would grow to make up the looming shortfall and there would be some increases in benefits and changes in other benefits.

Raising the retirement age from 67 to 69.5 over 20 years and trimming benefits for high-income earners was on the table, but the working group did not agree on those changes in part because Mr. Biden did not participate in the discussions, a Senate aide said, and his buy-in was required.

Mr. Biden hasn’t offered a specific plan to save Social Security since 2020, when he proposed lifting the cap on payroll taxes for incomes higher than $400,0000.

He has since stuck to pledging not to make any cuts to Social Security and has pitched tax increases on those earning more than $400,000 to shore up Medicare.

Mr. Biden is unlikely to agree with Mr. Trump’s proposal to stabilize Social Security through energy production.

Last month, he announced a moratorium on liquified natural gas export projects in a bow to climate change activists who want to eliminate fossil fuels.

More than 150 Republicans are urging him to reverse the moratorium based on studies showing exports would add up to $73 billion to the economy, create 450,000 jobs and increase the nation’s purchasing power by $30 billion.

The bipartisan Senate talks, meanwhile, are in limbo until Mr. Biden, or a new president, wants to come to the table.

Mr. Biden’s 2024 budget proposed a 10% increase in the Social Security Administration’s operating budget to improve customer service and shorten wait times.

“If anyone tries to cut Social Security, we’re going to stop it. If anyone tries to cut Medicare, we’re going to stop it,” Mr. Biden said in a speech at the University of Tampa last year.

Polls show cuts to Social Security and Medicare are deeply unpopular and raising the retirement age is a political loser.

A Quinnipiac University poll taken in March found 78% of adults opposed raising the retirement age from 67 to 70. Just 30% supported raising the retirement age even if it meant benefits would last longer.

Haley spokeswoman AnnMarie Graham-Barnes said Mr. Trump is lying to voters about the need to reform Social Security before it runs out of money. Mr. Biden is also ducking the issue, she said.

“Under Trump’s and Biden’s do-nothing plans, 100% of Americans will face a 23 percent cut in benefits in less than 10 years when the program starts to run out of money,” Ms. Graham-Barnes said. “Nikki Haley is the only candidate with a plan to protect Social Security for future generations.”