Hopes are fading fast to reduce tensions on the Korean Peninsula, according to a former U.S. intelligence chief, who warned that the increasingly provocative behavior from Pyongyang combined with the near total loss of U.S. diplomatic leverage has resulted in a uniquely dangerous moment.
Speaking on Tuesday at The Washington Brief, a monthly forum hosted by The Washington Times Foundation, former Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper said few options are available to Washington and its allies in the face of numerous rounds of North Korean missile tests, Pyongyang’s apparent effort to expand its nuclear capabilities and hostile rhetoric aimed at South Korea.
Mr. Clapper said the Biden administration appears to have few ambitious policies for North Korea. Even if it decides to engage with Pyongyang, he said, it’s not clear what the diplomatic outreach might look like. He noted that President Trump’s historic, personalized olive-branch diplomacy failed to secure any lasting denuclearization deal with North Korea.
“At this point, I don’t see much prospect for reducing tensions, unfortunately,” Mr. Clapper said at The Washington Brief event, moderated by former CIA official Joseph DeTrani.
“It doesn’t appear that the administration is really interested in pursuing some sort of initiative. And even if they were, I think we’ve lost a lot of the leverage we once had to induce real change in the North’s behavior. … They’ve given up on diplomacy, at least with us.
“I think at one point they were interested in diplomacy and were interested in negotiation and were interested in recognition,” Mr. Clapper said. “I don’t think so now.”
The Biden administration has said repeatedly that it is prepared for direct talks with no preconditions, but North Korea has refused to answer and direct contacts between Washington and Pyongyang have effectively ceased.
Mr. Clapper painted the grim picture after a series of fast-moving events on the tense, divided Korean Peninsula that fed the growing consensus in national security and intelligence circles that the region was entering a perilous period. Last week, North Korea test-fired another barrage of cruise missiles off its west coast, its fourth such test since the start of the year.
Analysts say the North Korean military under Kim Jong-un is seeking to diversify its platforms of weapons of mass destruction beyond its ground-based missile units.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said last week that Pyongyang could launch more provocations ahead of parliamentary elections in April.
On the symbolic front are other signs that the dynamic has shifted for the worse. North Koreans have torn down a monument in Pyongyang that symbolizes reconciliation with South Korea. Days earlier, Mr. Kim formally declared South Korea a hostile foreign adversary.
At the same time, Mr. Kim has deepened his strategic alliance with Russia. North Korea has provided Moscow with arms and ammunition for its war in Ukraine.
Dropping the ball?
Provocative moves are hardly surprising when it comes to North Korea, but specialists say the sheer number of such actions, combined with the absence of any sign of movement on U.S.-led diplomacy, provides cause for rising alarm.
“If you add to that the acceleration of [weapons of mass destruction] programs … with all the latest ICBM tests, the tests of cruise missiles, surface-based, submarine-based, what have you, clearly the impression one gets is that something unusual which we haven’t seen before might be unfolding before our eyes,” said Alexandre Mansourov, a professor at the Georgetown University Center for Security Studies, who spoke at The Washington Brief forum.
“And then, of course, here’s my question: Has the Biden administration really dropped the ball?” he asked.
Mr. Clapper said the U.S. is essentially “stuck.” The administration is not taking any diplomatic tack giving the appearance of concessions to Pyongyang. Any such effort, he said, would run into a “buzz saw” of domestic American politics.
“At this point, I think any great new idea that any of us may have about how to approach the North Koreans is kind of a dead letter,” Mr. Clapper said.
During the Trump administration, the U.S. seemingly gave Mr. Kim every opportunity to strike a deal that would lighten sanctions and open up economic investment in North Korea in exchange for a verifiable end to the country’s nuclear weapons program. Mr. Trump held three precedent-shattering face-to-face meetings with Mr. Kim in an effort to secure a deal, but no agreement was reached.
The ostensible U.S. goal of denuclearization on the peninsula also shows worrying signs. Mr. DeTrani said more than 70% of South Koreans in multiple surveys support their nation’s acquisition of nuclear weapons or pressure on Washington to return the tactical nuclear weapons it stationed in South Korea until the early 1990s.
Mr. Clapper said the best U.S. course of action might be to back away from insistence on denuclearization as the end goal and recognize that North Korea is a nuclear-capable state.
“I become an advocate for recognizing reality and acknowledging, officially, they have nuclear capabilities,” he said. “Doing so doesn’t raise or lower the intrinsic threat that they pose one bit and plays to their need for ‘face,’ for respect, and maybe puts them in a better mood to negotiate.”
• Andrew Salmon in Seoul, South Korea, contributed to this article, which is based in part on wire service reports.
• Ben Wolfgang can be reached at bwolfgang@washingtontimes.com.
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