Ukraine’s ammunition shortages offer Russia first win in months

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AVDIIVKA REGION, Ukraine — The defenders of Avdiivka, starved for ammunition, were ordered last weekend to withdraw from the besieged city in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk oblast, handing Russia its first major victory since the capture of Bakhmut in May.

“I consider myself very lucky to be alive,” said 22-year-old Denys, clutching in his trembling hands a can of Red Bull energy drink. (By custom, Ukrainian troops on the front lines are identified only by a first name.)

Unshaven and his youthful face covered in grime, the soldier recounted how he and his unit received the withdrawal order the previous day.

“Russian drones were constantly flying above our heads, directing artillery fire on us as we were retreating,” said Denys, occasionally interrupting his story to take a sip from the can.

He explained that Russian forces in Avdiivka had near-complete fire superiority, allowing them to relentlessly target the retreating Ukrainian forces with artillery, missiles and — on at least three occasions — white phosphorus.

We met Denys on Feb. 17 during a cigarette break in front of a grocery store in the center of a small village along the sole evacuation route out of Avdiivka. Our conversation was regularly interrupted by the deafening rumble of tanks and armored vehicles barreling down the village’s potholed streets.

Although he volunteered in the early days of Russia’s 2022 invasion, Denys said he served only in security positions until he was sent to the Avdiivka cauldron about a week before our meeting.

“The situation there was extremely difficult. It was a hell of a first combat experience,” he said with a weary smile.

After Ukraine’s much-anticipated summer counteroffensive fell far short of its stated objectives to reach the occupied city of Melitopol and sever Russia’s land bridge to the Crimean Peninsula, Russian forces have retaken the initiative over the past several months, even as they face their own front-line casualties.

With Ukraine’s ammunition stockpiles dwindling and Kyiv struggling to replenish the ranks of depleted front-line units, Russia has launched large-scale assaults on various sections of the country’s sprawling eastern front line, including on Avdiivka.

“The enemy is stepping up localized attacks in our sector,” a Ukrainian officer positioned in the Donetsk oblast told The Washington Times early this month. “In some places, they are succeeding, but on the whole, they are suffering losses and retreating.”

Despite dogged resistance from Avdiivka’s defenders, news of the Russian victory broke on Feb. 17 as Ukraine’s newly appointed chief commander announced the withdrawal from the city.

“Based on the operational situation around Avdiivka, in order to avoid encirclement and to preserve the lives and health of the servicemen, I have decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defense on more favorable lines,” Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi said in a statement.

In the hours afterward, drone footage circulating on social media showed the victorious Russians hoisting their flag on the smoldering ruins of the city.

A mere 8 miles from the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk, Avdiivka had stood on the front line of the war ever since its liberation by the Ukrainian army in July 2014, months after Russian forces moved into eastern Ukraine and seized Crimea.

The once-peaceful Avdiivka and its pockmarked residential buildings had become a tragic symbol of the conflict that had torn apart Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region for eight years. When Russian tanks rumbled across the Ukrainian border in February 2022, Avdiivka was again at the center of the fighting.

From February 2022 through November 2023, daily shelling killed an estimated 154 civilians, leading scores to flee the city. Out of a population of 30,000 in 2013, only about 1,000 remained in Avdiivka this month. They are sheltering in the basements of bombed-out residential buildings.

The city had been deprived of electricity, gas and running water in recent months.

“It was hell. Absolute [expletive] hell,” muttered Yuriy, a soldier of Ukraine’s 110th Brigade whom we met in a small country house, or dacha, about 12 miles outside Avdiivka.

As Yuriy recounted the brigade’s harrowing escape from the city, his comrade Sergey slept soundly on a worn-out couch nearby — passed out from exhaustion. The two men walked for eight hours to avoid being encircled by the Russians before they were picked up by a crew from Ukraine’s 53rd Brigade.

“You’re at home here,” Yuriy said an officer told him and Sergey upon rescuing them.

The dacha is cramped yet homely, the walls of its living room adorned with a flag of the 53rd Brigade and religious icons depicting the Virgin Mary. In the courtyard, the mangled remains of an SUV stand as a testimony to the intensity of the fighting in Avdiivka.

One soldier explained that the vehicle was shredded by a hail of Russian GRAD rockets about a week before Avdiivka fell. By sheer miracle, the crew escaped unscathed and made their way to the rear on the vehicle’s three remaining wheels.

Although Moscow celebrated the capture of Avdiivka, the battle may have come at a massive cost to Russian forces.

According to an open-source analysis by the X account @naalsio26, a contributor to the Oryx website, which documents visually confirmed Russian and Ukrainian vehicle losses since the start of the invasion, Russian forces lost 655 vehicles, including 222 tanks, from October through January.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed Russian losses amounted to several “tens of thousands” since the beginning of the offensive on Avdiivka. “I can’t tell you the number of losses we have,” Mr. Zelenskyy said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in Germany last week.

“For example, at Avdiivka, I’ve just compared the figures. It’s one for seven. For every dead Ukrainian, there are seven Russians,” the Ukrainian president said.

As of Thursday, Kyiv had not revealed how many of its soldiers disappeared during the withdrawal.

“I have data close to concrete numbers … but do not disclose them so far because the verification has not been finished. Some people, some soldiers, are getting in touch with our side,” said Dmytro Lykhovii, the head of the public relations department of Ukraine’s Tavriia Operational Strategic Group.

“To tell the truth is a bit harder than to spread fake news, as the truth needs to be checked,” Mr. Lyhovii said.

The fall of Avdiivka speaks to the difficulties encountered by Ukraine’s besieged defenders, as the growing lack of ammunition threatens their ability to hold the line in the face of renewed Russian assaults.

The situation has increased pressure on Washington, where the authorization of fresh U.S. military aid for Ukraine remains stalled in Congress.

In a statement after the fall of Avdiivka, President Biden attributed the capture of the city to “congressional inaction.” He said the stalemate in the House offered Moscow its “first notable gains in months.”