Polarizing Thaksin is back, and Bangkok wonders what’s next

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BANGKOK — Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra walked free on parole Sunday after finishing six months in a police hospital, sparking fears that he now shares power with his party’s pliant prime minister.

What that means for the future of Thailand’s fluid political landscape remains a massive question.

Eighteen years ago, a military coup toppled Mr. Thaksin, one of Thailand’s most polarizing and politically powerful leaders.

“There is only one prime minister under the constitution. That’s me,” Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, a member of Mr. Thaksin’s Pheu Thai party, insisted to reporters hours after the far more popular Mr. Thaksin was freed.

Some warn that Mr. Thaksin, 74, has proved so influential and politically shrewd over the years that this Southeast Asian, Buddhist-majority nation now has “double prime ministers.”

“Thai society now knows that Thaksin is the shadow prime minister with real power,” Wanwichit Boonprong, a Rangsit University political science lecturer, said in an interview.

Mr. Thaksin’s six-month hospital incarceration and parole, after he voluntarily ended 15 years of self-imposed exile, has become a source of controversy and debate. Many say his relatively lenient treatment reflects his willingness to work with military-allied forces and parties that were once his sworn enemies.

“Even though he [was] a prisoner, he has received special medical treatment privileges in the police hospital without ever having been in prison for a single day,” Mr. Wanwichit said.

The Bangkok Post wrote in a recent editorial that the handling of Mr. Thaksin’s prosecution “has sadly stigmatized the justice system.”

Mr. Srettha, a former real estate mogul, leads a civilian-military coalition government with a 250-member military-appointed Senate and three elected military-allied political parties. That arrangement appears to please the U.S.-trained military, which is keen to protect its considerable and lucrative commercial enterprises, including racecourses, boxing stadiums, golf courses, shops, media outlets, an electric power station and hotels in barracks.

Mr. Srettha, who doubles as finance minister, is apparently content focusing on the vulnerable economy and acting as Thailand’s salesman while leaving the intrigue and politicking to Mr. Thaksin. Despite his long absence from the scene, Mr. Thaksin is the de facto leader of their Pheu Thai (For Thais) party, nominally headed by his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra.

Now that he is a free man, Mr. Thaksin is expected to play a more active role in his party, which evolved from family-run incarnations after he founded the Thai Rak Thai (Thais Love Thais) party in 1998. That could prove politically contentious.

“I may have to warn the government not to create the circumstance of double prime ministers,” said opposition Move Forward Party (MFP) leader Chaithawat Tulathon.

Mr. Thaksin’s release is widely expected to boost the political influence of the ruling military, royalists and conservatives. They appear to need the aging, populist billionaire politician as a shield against a young generation of MFP reformers in the National Assembly who want to reduce the military’s powers, end conscription and break up powerful business monopolies.

The MFP also wants to weaken the royal defamation law, a red flag for monarchists and conservatives.

Ironically, Mr. Thaksin faces a criminal charge of lese-majeste and an equally severe “computer crime” charge. The attorney general’s office is considering whether to proceed with an earlier decision to indict Mr. Thaksin.

The former prime minister has denied accusations of expressing statements in 2015 about the constitutional monarchy’s royal advisers and Thailand’s political instability.

Embracing Thaksin

Despite those lingering animosities, the army generals who led the 2006 coup against Mr. Thaksin — and a 2014 putsch ousting the government of his sister, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra — appear to be tacitly embracing their onetime nemesis.

Ms. Yingluck, 56, also fled abroad to avoid a five-year sentence for dereliction of duty while overseeing and accounting for major projects. She is expected to return to Thailand soon with a relaxed sentence if her brother’s political rehabilitation succeeds.

“The conservatives, who do not have much choice, must compromise with Thaksin and the Pheu Thai Party to gain power,” Mr. Wanwichit said.

“The conservative political parties did not have a political leader with sufficient charisma.”

Mr. Thaksin would not become a political candidate, analysts said.

“With the Srettha government in office, Thaksin can work behind the scenes and act as Srettha’s puppet master,” Paul Chambers, a specialist in Thai politics at Naresuan University, said in an interview. “What Thaksin cannot do is anger the king. He also cannot ever be prime minister again. He would act through cronies such as Srettha or his relatives such as his daughter.”

Mr. Thaksin’s willingness to work with the military, royalists and their conservative allies has angered many of his anti-military former “Red Shirt” supporters. Memories are still raw from the fatal shootings of more than 90 people, most of them civilians and Red Shirts, during clashes with the military in a nine-week Bangkok insurrection in 2010.

The Red Shirts vainly tried to bring back their fugitive hero because Mr. Thaksin symbolized their democratic struggle against military rule.

“There is a strong belief that Thaksin remains highly influential in the Pheu Thai party, even though he has lost substantial support from members of the Red Shirts,” said Kantathi Suphamongkhon, a foreign minister in Mr. Thaksin’s administration from 2005 to the 2006 coup.

Swaths of rural voters have long backed Mr. Thaksin because his populist policies offered cheap loans, virtually free health care, scholarships, village development projects and other assistance to neglected Thais.

Thailand’s military-dominated political establishment was rocked by the initial results of elections in May. The upstart MFP, led by youthful entrepreneur Pita Limjaroenrat, finished first with 38% of the total votes in nationwide parliamentary elections.

Mr. Pita could never cobble together a governing majority. He was blocked primarily by the government-appointed Senate in the parliamentary maneuvering after the vote. Mr. Pita’s win was fueled mainly by younger voters expressing frustration with the country’s hidebound political class.

Pheu Thai and Mr. Srettha then formed a coalition government, aligning with parties backed by the military. Mr. Pita now languishes in the opposition and faces legal difficulties over his criticisms of the lese-majeste statutes during the campaign.