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SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea test-fired yet another barrage of cruise missiles off its west coast Friday morning, its fourth such test just since the start of the year, as leader Kim Jong-un intensified his drive for a refocus on naval power.
Analysts say North Korea’s military is seeking to diversify its platforms of weapons of mass destruction beyond ground-based missile units.
If underwater cruise missiles and the submarine to carry them are engineered successfully, Mr. Kim would gain a survivable “second strike” nuclear asset to complement his existing armory of land-based missiles and launchers.
On the tactical front, North Korea’s navy is a force that, though smaller and less technologically advanced than that of South Korea, has proved lethal in seashore combat and could take on a larger role in any clash on the divided peninsula.
The developments come at an anxious time, as Ukraine and Yemen’s Houthis have shown that modern navies without warships can cause massive dislocation to critical commercial shipping routes.
South Koreans are on edge for another reason: President Yoon Suk Yeol warned Wednesday that North Korea could launch provocations ahead of April’s parliamentary elections in the South.
“This year we expect to see many provocations aimed at interfering in our elections, such as border area provocations, drone infiltrations, disinformation, cyberattacks and rear disturbances,” Mr. Yoon told an annual meeting of the Central Integrated Defense Council, the Yonhap News Agency reported.
South Korean military officials say it was not known how many cruise missiles were fired in North Korea’s latest exercise. Pyongyang says the missiles recently tested include a new model, the Pulhwasan (Fire Arrow), which may be capable of being fitted with a nuclear warhead. North Korea’s state media said Mr. Kim himself oversaw some tests of a “strategic” submarine-launched cruise missile.
Photographs carried by North Korean media show black-painted missiles skimming frozen land- and seascapes, followed by explosions on a rocky islet.
Separately, North Korean media monitored in Seoul on Friday showed a smiling Mr. Kim walking past a small moored warship at the country’s Nampo Shipyard, though the date of the visit was unclear. The yard has reportedly constructed a barge for testing submarine-launched missiles.
“Strengthening naval force is the most important issue in pushing ahead with war preparations,” he said, the Reuters news agency reported.
Mr. Kim has previously been photographed visiting the North’s submarine dockyard, Sinpo. And last month North Korea conducted the latest test of an underwater drone, which it claims is nuclear-armed. A policy document in 2021 revealed a list of new weapons for the regime, including a “nuclear submarine.”
Diversifying
North Korea is banned by U.N. Security Council resolutions from owning ballistic missile technologies, a ban it consistently defies. Cruise missiles are not sanctioned, and offer North Korea a wider range of deployment options than ballistic weapons.
Ballistic missiles, which are launched up in a parabola before hitting their targets on a downward trajectory, are the larger and have longer ranges. Cruise missiles tend to be smaller and can maneuver rapidly along horizontal flight paths, often hugging ground or water.
Both classes can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads, and both can be used for strategic or tactical nuclear strikes. Though North Korea has not yet tested a tactical nuclear device, its leadership and media outlets frequently refer to the weapon.
Cruise missiles can be deployed from multiple platforms, including ground launchers, aircraft, surface vessels and submarines. Ships at sea add range to onboard missiles, while submarines are hard to detect and hard to destroy, making them an ideal “second strike” option if primary strike assets are destroyed.
“The U.S. has a nuclear triad, and Kim probably wants something similar,” said Chun In-bum, a retired South Korean general.
The U.S. nuclear triad consists of ground-, air- and sea-launched nuclear weapons. North Korea is currently limited to ground platforms, but it is actively pursuing both a submarine-based program, and its undersea nuclear-armed drone.
“A U.S. Navy Surface Action Group or Carrier Strike Group is a really lucrative target,” Mr. Chun said. “For those kinds of reasons, he probably wants an underwater force.”
’One-way missions’
North Korea’s navy has proved deadly in clashes near the poorly demarcated and disputed Northern Limit Line — the maritime demilitarized zone in the Yellow Sea.
In 1999, 2002 and 2009, North-South patrol-boat clashes resulted in damage and deaths on both sides. In 2010 a North Korean minisubmarine sank the South Korean corvette Cheonan and later that year, North Korean coastal and rocket artillery shelled the flashpoint island of Yeonpyeong.
Tensions subsided after 2011, when then-North Korean leader Kim Jong-il died. Kim Jong-un has, so far, not launched any deadly operations against the South.
But with inter-Korean relations now at a nadir, new support from Russia, and both South Korea and the U.S. holding major elections this year, there are fears Mr. Kim could act. And the North’s low-caliber seaborne force has one frightening advantage its adversaries lack, Mr. Chun warns.
“I don’t think North Korea is concerned about survivability,” he said, recalling both Japanese kamikaze strikes and Islamic suicide bombings. “Their subs may conduct one-way missions. That gives them more capability than any other navy.”
His opinion is backed by the grim experience of North Korean naval infiltrations of South Korea’s coast.
In 1999, the crew of a North Korean minisubmarine, trapped in fishing nets, killed themselves underwater. In 1998, the crew of a Northern infiltration submersible was killed by naval gunfire. In 1996, when their minisubmarine beached on rocks, Northern commandos killed their naval shipmates, then tried to fight their way home through South Korean territory, sparking a massive search operation.
Mr. Chun, then a battalion commander, led troops during the bloody 1996 manhunt.
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
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