Biden has few options for floundering war on al-Shabab, with echoes of Afghanistan

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To fully understand the slate of bad options facing the U.S. in Somalia, consider this: National security analysts say the Somali government troops are “several degrees of magnitude worse” than the hapless Afghan National Army that surrendered to the Taliban in a matter of weeks in 2021 after the Biden administration announced the U.S. combat troop withdrawal.

President Biden now has little choice but to escalate a war against Somalia’s al-Shabab terrorist network that his predecessor, Donald Trump, tried to end during the final days of his term. The Pentagon carried out more airstrikes against al-Shabab targets last year than any other year in Mr. Biden’s presidency and could be on track to break that mark this year.

That doesn’t mean the Pentagon has a clear route to victory over al-Shabab, a powerful al Qaeda affiliate that remains dead set on overthrowing the fragile federal government in Mogadishu and establishing a jihadi-led Islamic emirate along the Horn of Africa. Although U.S. airstrikes so far have prevented that nightmare scenario, the Pentagon says there is “no specific target date for the end of U.S. military support to Somalia” and little in the way of clear metrics for victory.

Put simply, Mr. Biden’s strategy thus far is simply to kick the can down the road, hoping to avoid a catastrophe that could further destabilize a chaotic corner of the world.

“It’s not a winning strategy. And it’s barely a hold-the-line strategy,” said Bill Roggio, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and editor of the think tank’s Long War Journal, which tracks America’s long-running, under-the-radar war in Somalia and other conflicts.

Somalia and Afghanistan certainly have cultural and geopolitical differences, but Mr. Roggio said some of the same fundamental questions at play in Kabul can be asked about Mogadishu.

“The Biden administration’s justification for leaving Afghanistan was that it’s a long war and we weren’t effecting change. But one of Biden’s first acts as president was putting troops back in Somalia after Trump withdrew them. What is their strategy?” Mr. Roggio said. “In Somalia, I believe it is to prevent collapse. I think Biden realized when he put those troops back in, it looked like the country might collapse.”

Back into the fight

Mr. Trump, who vowed to get the U.S. out of “endless wars” in the Middle East and beyond, withdrew U.S. troops from Somalia during his final weeks in office. Mr. Biden sent those troops back into Somalia in 2022, though the footprint remains small. Fewer than 1,000 American forces are there today.

The U.S. was able to continue hitting al-Shabab even after Mr. Trump’s withdrawal by relying on military and logistical capabilities based in neighboring African countries.

The impact on the number of American strikes was immediate. In 2019, the U.S. carried out 63 airstrikes on al-Shabab. In 2020, that number was 52, according to U.S. Africa Command.

In 2021, the number of airstrikes dropped dramatically to 10. It has crept back up, with 16 airstrikes in 2022 and 18 in 2023, according to AFRICOM.

Three U.S. airstrikes have been reported so far this year. The strikes have targeted al-Shabab leaders and fighters.

On paper, the overall goal of the air campaign is simple.

“The current objective of the U.S. military mission in Somalia is to support our Somali partners in their efforts to combat terrorist organizations such as al-Shabab and to promote stability and security in the region,” an AFRICOM spokesperson said in a statement to The Washington Times. “While we do not have a specific target date for the end of U.S. military support to Somalia, our ultimate goal is to strengthen the capacity of the Somali government and security forces to take the lead in ensuring the safety and security of their country and people.”

Asked about specific metrics for achieving victory over al-Shabab, AFRICOM said, “We continuously assess and adjust our strategies and tactics to achieve our objectives in Somalia.

“Our efforts are guided by a comprehensive approach that includes training and advising Somali security forces, supporting governance and development initiatives, and conducting targeted operations against terrorist threats,” the spokesperson said.

The U.S. on-again, off-again war in Somalia has lasted more than 30 years. Nineteen Americans were killed and more than 70 others wounded in an October 1993 clash with militant forces that became part of American pop culture with the book and film “Black Hawk Down.” In 2018, one U.S. special operations soldier was killed and four others wounded during a firefight with al-Shabab militants.

Al-Shabab’s deadly capabilities have been on display more recently as well. The group is thought to be responsible for the Feb. 6 bombing at a market in Mogadishu that reportedly killed at least 10 people. Al-Shabab claimed responsibility for a Feb. 11 attack that killed four Emirati troops at a Bahraini military office during a training mission at a military base in Mogadishu, according to media reports.

Last month, al-Shabab fighters took nine passengers hostage after their United Nations helicopter was forced to make an emergency landing in an area of Somalia controlled by the group. Those incidents were the latest in years of deadly bombings and attacks by al-Shabab fighters, who control significant swaths of the country outside Mogadishu.

Delaying the inevitable?

The U.S. isn’t the only nation seemingly aware that a full withdrawal from Somalia would lead to near-immediate disaster. The African Union’s long-planned withdrawal of its forces from Somalia has been delayed several times, including in November, when the U.N. Security Council suspended the pullout for three months.

Before the drawdown began, the African Union had a contingent of nearly 20,000 troops in Somalia. Their presence, along with the steady U.S. airstrikes, has helped the Somali government stave off a full al-Shabab takeover. Still, the pullout is expected to continue this summer with the removal of at least 4,000 more troops. About 5,000 African Union troops have already left the country, and 13 military bases have been transferred from the AU to the Somali government. For the AU, the next few months will be especially pivotal and potentially dangerous.

“We are now moving into the most critical stage of the mission because by June we are going to draw down additional troops and you have to take into consideration force protection. It’s not easy, but we must surmount the challenges by remaining on the maximum alert during the transition period,” Ambassador Mohamed El-Amine Souef, head of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia, said during a meeting in Mogadishu this month.

As proved the case in Afghanistan, despite two decades of U.S. aid and training, Somali government troops simply cannot survive without that support, said Mr. Roggio, the FDD analyst.

“The Somali forces, I would argue, are several degrees of magnitude worse than the Afghan forces,” he said. “They’re being propped up not just by the U.S. but by the African Union.”

Eradicating al-Shabab would likely require a substantial, prolonged U.S. ground offensive in Somalia. There is simply no political or public will for such an engagement right now in America.

“This is why we won’t win this war,” Mr. Roggio said. “All we can do is basically try to keep a lid on it.”