The politics of immigration have shifted as chaos at the border persists, according to a pollster who says Black voters, in particular, are slipping away from President Biden over the issue.
Black men are drawn to former President Donald Trump. His critique that the surge of illegal immigrants is a drain on America rings true to them, said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and founder of its TIPP poll.
“Now what is happening is that the government resources that used to go to help them in cities, that is being diverted to migrants. They’re asking, ‘Hey, what’s happening? You guys are cutting this stuff, and you are spending it on migrants,’” Mr. Mayur told The Washington Times.
Immigration has soared to the top of voters’ priority issues, driven by the chaos at the border with Mexico.
A Pew study shows that 45% of Americans see the border as a “crisis” and 32% call it a “major problem.”
A majority said the surge of illegal immigrants leads to more crime, but concerns about what Pew called economic burdens, or the drain on safety net programs and government resources, were significant.
SEE ALSO: Illegal immigrants bring gang ties and violent crime to ‘sanctuary city’ New York
Other surveys show that support for a border wall, which dipped during the Trump administration, has reached all-time highs.
Mr. Mayur said the dispersal of migrants throughout the U.S. has driven the border issue deep into America’s interior and into the political bloodstream.
“There is a change here, and that is caused by all the flood of migrants into the sanctuary cities. What once was basically dismissed by many as a sort of right-wing thing, it’s no more that,” he said. “There has never been a time where this issue is as wide open as it is now.”
That helps explain the drift of Black voters, particularly Black men, who are generally among Democrats’ most reliable voters.
“This is an unintended consequence of uncontrolled immigration. It’s basically coming back to hurt Democrats,” Mr. Mayur said. “I’m not sure whether over the long term they may benefit, but at least in the short term, over the next year or so, it is hurting them.”
The border’s implications stretch well beyond this year’s elections. Analysts see a severe shift in Americans’ openness to even legal immigration.
In 2020, with Mr. Trump in office and the border largely calm, 34% of people told Gallup they wanted the level of immigration to increase. Just 28% wanted it cut. By last year, just 26% wanted increases and 41% wanted a decrease — the highest rate in a decade.
In one stark poll taken by TIPP for The Daily Mail, 47% of respondents agreed with Mr. Trump’s statement that illegal immigrants are “poisoning the blood” of America.
Mr. Mayur said those results show “angst” about immigration at an all-time high.
Immigrant rights groups aren’t happy about the direction of the national conversation. They say it has drifted deep into White nationalist territory and acknowledge the power of the issue in Republican primaries.
They see little evidence that the issue will move voters in a general election.
Indeed, Republicans expected the chaotic border to deliver big wins in the 2022 midterm congressional elections. Instead, Republicans lost ground in the Senate and won only a narrow majority in the House. Prognosticators had predicted more significant Republican gains.
In a special congressional election in New York last week, Republicans relied heavily on immigration to try to hold a seat left vacant last year when the House expelled Rep. George Santos.
Tom Suozzi, the Democratic candidate, cruised to an easy victory with a pledge to support more border security, though not the more forceful solutions of Republicans.
Democratic strategists said that showed a path for other candidates to deflect Republican attacks.
“If there were a race where this nativist strategy should have worked, it was this one. It didn’t,” said Vanessa Cardenas, executive director of America’s Voice, a leading immigration advocacy group.
She said the message out of the New York race is that focusing on enforcement is a losing proposition and most Americans want “legalization alongside an orderly border.”
The Pew Research Center shows little consensus on improving the border situation.
Democrats favored ideas about making border crossings less dangerous and issuing work permits faster so illegal immigrants could hold jobs while waiting for their asylum cases to be heard.
Republicans tilted toward ideas such as wall construction and increasing deportation of illegal immigrants.
• Stephen Dinan can be reached at sdinan@washingtontimes.com.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.