SEOUL, South Korea — A pair of developments last week cast light on the under-the-radar diplomatic Cold War being waged between North and South Korea.
One day after South Korea, a close U.S. ally, revealed that it was establishing diplomatic relations with longtime U.S. foe communist Cuba, North Korea offered its own diplomatic olive branch — and the possibility of a leaders’ summit — to Japan.
While there are now just two United Nations states — North Korea and Syria — with which Seoul lacks diplomatic relations, Pyongyang has in recent months been retrenching its embassies worldwide.
On Wednesday, Seoul’s diplomatic mission to the U.N. announced it was opening its 193rd set of diplomatic relations, tying the knot with Havana. A senior aide to conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol told South Korean media on Thursday that “North Korea will be dealt a considerable political and psychological blow” by the move.
“The reason Cuba was unable to readily agree to diplomatic relations despite having positive feelings toward South Korea amid hallyu and other various circumstances was because of its relationship with North Korea,” the official continued. (Hallyu — “The Korean wave” — is South Korea’s world-roaming pop culture.)
“This is the completion of our diplomacy vis-a-vis the socialist bloc that was friendly toward North Korea…in the past,” the official said.
Separately, on Thursday, Kim Yo-jong, the high-profile sister of North Korean national leader Kim Jong-un, proposed in state media a summit between Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and her brother. With the North’s ties to South Korea and the U.S. effectively frozen, the offer to Tokyo may be a trademark North Korean move to drive a wedge between its enemies.
If Japan put forth no “stumbling block” she continued, “There will be no reason for the two countries not to become close and the day of the prime minister’s Pyongyang visit might come.”
Crucially, she detailed a potential stumbling block: Japanese abductees living in the north. In the 1970s and 1980s, a number of Japanese citizens were kidnapped by North Korean spy agencies. Ms. Kim called that situation “settled,” but Tokyo angrily disagrees.
Ms. Kim’s offer follows North Korean expressions of condolence to the victims of Japan’s New Year’s Day earthquake. That surprise message caused a stir in Japan.
After Ms. Kim’s media commentary, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi called her comment dismissing the abduction issue “totally unacceptable,” but nevertheless expressed interest in a bilateral summit. Given the high public emotion invested in the abductee issue, it seems unlikely Mr. Kishida could take it off the table.
Analysts say any attempts by Mr. Kishida to engage Pyongyang would be fraught. But they also concede that Seoul’s embassy in Havana is more of a symbolic than a substantive win.
Diplomatic playing field
The Korean diplomatic competition is not exclusive: Both North and South Korea maintain embassies in capitals that recognize the other.
But Seoul’s outreach to Cuba, a long-term friend of North Korea, marks a new wrinkle in the contest.
South Korea reached out to the island nation in the mid-1990s and opened a trade office in 2005, but only clinched official diplomatic ties this week. Multiple matters slowed progress — not least, different administrations in Seoul wavering between engagement and pressure in their North Korean policies.
The breakthrough this week could be even sweeter as North Korea played up a visit to Pyongyang by Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel in 2018, part of the Cuban leader’s first trip abroad after taking power. North Korean state media ran multiple pictures of Mr. Diaz-Canel and Mr. Kim together, including one of the two leaders holding upraised hands as they were driven down a thoroughfare in Pyongyang.
What actual benefits it will bring for the Yoon administration are less clear.
“I am not sure if there is any impact, as North Korea’s relations with Cuba are not very vibrant, unlike relations with China and Russia,” said Kim Hyung-wook, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy “This looks more symbolic.”
The move comes as a cash-strapped North Korea is cutting back its diplomatic footprint. Last November, it was reported that the Kim government was closing embassies in Angola, Bangladesh, Democratic Republic of Congo, Hong Kong, Guinea, Nepal, Senegal, Spain and Uganda.
Mr. Kim, the professor, puts it down to cost cutting as a result of the long aftermath of the COVID pandemic which left the economy in a “really terrible” state.
Moreover, China, facing a raft of economic and foreign policy challenges problems, is offering Pyongyang only limited aid. “China’s economic support for North Korea is not as much as North Korea expected, so it so focusing on its relations with Russia,” Mr. Kim said.
Go Myong-hyun, a research fellow on North Korea at the Asan Institute said that North Korea is more likely reorienting rather than downsizing its diplomacy.
“It is a cost issue to maintain embassies and they are a potential for defection,” he said. “But I think [the North Koreans] are rationalizing diplomatic processes, I think they are going to open more diplomatic offices and consulates in regions and cities where they can make money, like Russia and the Middle East.”
Ms. Kim’s recent outreach to Japan is unlikely to succeed, he said — and not simply because of domestic pressures on Mr. Kishida.
Pyongyang seeks to “normalize North Korea in the eyes of the world,” Mr. Go said. “This is what Seoul and Washington are arguing against, so Japan’s hands are tied.”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
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