OPINION:
President Biden will again be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States of America. Even after a special prosecutor in his own Department of Justice described the 46th president as a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory,” the only path to a replacement is Mr. Biden himself stepping down. That’s not going to happen.
Sure, it’s fun to speculate. For months, pundits on social media have been promoting the theory that California Gov. Gavin Newsom would sweep in at the last minute and save his party. Those rumors seemed to die down after Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Fox News host Sean Hannity provided Mr. Newsom with a verbal beatdown in a nationally televised debate between the two governors.
Lately, the big buzz has been about the well-liked former first lady Michelle Obama. She consistently polls ahead of other Democrats. In a party consumed by identity politics, her selection would make more sense, as allowing a White man to leapfrog over Vice President Kamala Harris would be an insult to many — particularly younger voters whom Democrats desperately need to win come November.
A new Obama scenario might lead to Mr. Newsom becoming a running mate with a promise to Ms. Harris that she would be nominated to a seat on the Supreme Court. Despite her poor poll numbers, Ms. Harris is a former California attorney general and district attorney as well as U.S. senator. Democrats in the Senate could vote to confirm Ms. Harris — despite her obvious challenges — if they hold the majority after the 2024 election.
While each of these scenarios is interesting, they will not lead to anything if Mr. Biden does not act. I’ve said for years that Mr. Biden would gnaw his own arm off before he willingly stepped down from the presidency. He’s been planning this for most of his adult life, and he is not about to give it up.
Mr. Biden took office as a U.S. senator soon after his 30th birthday. That is the youngest a person can be to serve in that office. Now, he is the oldest person to serve as president of the United States.
In 1987, he began his first campaign for president but had to drop out after numerous documented reports of plagiarism. Most people would have left public life in shame after a scandal of that magnitude. Instead, Mr. Biden returned to the Senate, and he ran again in 2008. His campaign failed, but extensive behind-the-scenes lobbying got him on the ticket with eventual President Barack Obama. His nickname “Uncle Joe” was not a term of endearment in the Obama White House, as the then-vice president was prone to gaffes.
Most pundits saw little or no path to victory for the former vice president at the beginning of the 2020 campaign. Several media sources said that as it became clear in early 2020 that Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont might become the Democrats’ nominee, things began to change in a hurry. Sen. Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota and Pete Buttigieg, former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, suddenly exited the race and left a lane open for a “reasonable” Democrat to win. At the same time, Rep. Jim Clyburn used his political clout to help then-candidate Biden carry the Black vote and win in South Carolina. Suddenly, Mr. Biden was on his way to securing the nomination.
Once in, he and first lady Jill Biden were not about to give up the White House. That remains true today.
For all the talk of replacing Mr. Biden, it is no easy task. Democrats still have superdelegates (party officials and elected leaders like members of Congress and governors), but they only make up about 15% of the delegates needed to secure the nomination.
Less than 5% of the total delegates have been awarded so far this year, but the filing deadlines for most states have passed or will pass soon. By the end of February, the filing deadline will have come and gone for every state except Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon and South Dakota — plus the District of Columbia.
Critics of the current president are correct in saying that conservatives should focus more on attacking his horrible policies than on attacking him. Voters need to understand that problems with the economy and border security are not because Mr. Biden is old. They are problems caused by liberal ideas that do not work.
Having said all of that, Mr. Biden will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2024. No matter how much the left and the media try to spin it, most voters will see him as the special prosecutor does — a “well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory.” He really is an old man with a poor memory and even worse ideas.
• Scott Walker is president of Young America’s Foundation and served as the 45th governor of Wisconsin.
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