OPINION:
Three recent polls signal hope for Republicans and disaster for Democrats.
Democrats enjoyed a moment of optimism when Quinnipiac reported on a Jan. 25-26 survey that President Biden was beating former President Donald Trump 50% to 44%. There was a sudden wave of stories about a Biden comeback.
But that enthusiasm collapsed on Feb. 1. CNN reported that Mr. Trump was ahead 49% to 45%. Three days later, NBC released a poll showing him ahead 47% to 42%.
From Mr. Trump’s standpoint, the news keeps getting better. His next test is the South Carolina Republican presidential primary on Feb. 24. A recent Washington Post-Monmouth poll shows him leading former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley 58% to 32% with less than three weeks to go. Morning Consult has the contest at 68% for Mr. Trump and 31% for Ms. Haley.
Mr. Biden, however, may be the weakest president in modern times. The national numbers have huge implications for Democrats and Republicans.
According to the NBC poll, 76% of Americans believe Mr. Biden will be unable to serve effectively as president for four more years; 59% strongly feel that way. Since his cognitive abilities seem to be continually slipping, it is hard to imagine these people reelecting him.
Conflicts involving Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah, and other Iran-sponsored terrorist groups in Syria and Iraq are only getting worse. There have been more than 180 attacks on American troops in the Middle East. Most Americans are regularly being reminded that the world is dangerous. A cognitively incompetent commander in chief represents a threat to national security. The prospect of Vice President Kamala Harris becoming president may clinch the anti-Biden vote.
The decay in support for Mr. Biden is across the board, according to the NBC poll. Mr. Biden carried 59% support from Hispanics in 2020. He is now virtually tied with Mr. Trump with the group. Hispanics support Mr. Trump with 42% and Mr. Biden with 41%. Only 35% of Hispanics approve of the job President Biden is doing.
The Democrats must be especially worried about Mr. Biden’s collapse among younger voters. Among 18- to 34-year-olds, Messrs. Biden and Trump are tied at 42% support each. Even among younger voters, ages 18 to 29, Mr. Biden is ahead by only 8 points (46% to 38%). This was a group he carried by a big margin in 2020. This collapse among younger Americans is occurring despite Mr. Biden waiving student loan payments, going all-out on a radical climate agenda, pandering to the transgender community, and using TikTok.
The great danger for the Democrats is not that younger Americans are going to swing decisively to Mr. Trump. It’s that they may simply stay home. If turnout in Madison, Wisconsin, Ann Arbor, Michigan, and other big college towns collapses, then Mr. Trump will likely carry those states.
Every Democrat who does not cast a ballot is a lost vote for Senate, House, state legislature, governor, etc. This collapse of enthusiasm can create a tidal wave effect as turnout collapses, and the votes simply aren’t there for anyone on the ticket.
One indication of Mr. Biden’s youth vote problem is that 70% of young Americans disapprove of his support for Israel against Hamas. The longer the wars in the Middle East go on, the more trouble Mr. Biden will have with younger voters. This is compounded by the defection among Muslim Americans, which could be decisive in Michigan. Pro-Palestinian college students are apparently referring to Mr. Biden as “Genocide Joe.” That’s a nightmare for the Democratic Party.
Finally, beyond personality challenges, the gap in who can handle issues better is large and consistent:
On dealing with the border and immigration, it’s Mr. Trump up 35 points.
On handling crime and violence, it’s Mr. Trump by 21 points.
On keeping the economy strong, Mr. Trump leads by 20 points.
On keeping America stronger, it’s Mr. Trump by 11 points.
Mr. Biden leads only on abortion, by 12 points, and protecting immigrants, by 17 points.
On personal characteristics, there is a similar mismatch:
Mr. Trump has a 23-point advantage on who has better physical and mental health.
Mr. Trump has a 16-point advantage on who is more competent and effective. (In 2020, Biden had a 9-point advantage on this subject.)
Even on protecting democracy — which Mr. Biden has made a major talking point — he leads Mr. Trump by only 2 points (43% to 41%).
I am reminded of an enormous political shift in 1980. At the time, there was a deep pessimism. There was a sense that the future would be bleak, or at least mediocre. Recall President Jimmy Carter’s malaise speech.
Candidate Ronald Reagan came with a positive attitude. He would say “America’s best days are ahead” and “you ain’t seen nothing yet.” He ultimately carried more electoral votes against an incumbent president than in any other election in history.
Today, by 73% to 27%, Americans believe the country is on the wrong track.
In the style of Reagan, Republicans must focus on producing positive, commonsense solutions — and communicating that we can fix things. They must replace problems with opportunities and work to make American lives better.
If they can do those things, the stage could be set for an extraordinary American victory. People who never before thought about voting Republican may decide that a positive, optimistic future is more important than politics.
• For more commentary from Newt Gingrich, visit Gingrich360.com. Also, subscribe to the “Newt’s World” podcast.
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