China’s move on Taiwan could come even sooner than projected, U.S. commander warns

A version of this story appeared in the daily Threat Status newsletter from The Washington Times. Click here to receive Threat Status delivered directly to your inbox each weekday.

China’s military could launch an attack against Taiwan before 2027, the date Beijing has ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be ready for a takeover, the nominee to head the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command told a Senate hearing Thursday.

Adm. Samuel J. Paparo, currently Pacific Fleet commander, was also pressed at his confirmation hearing to meet a legal requirement for the command to set up a joint task force in the Pacific. Lawmakers say a multiservice and multination military unit is needed to better prepare the U.S. military for a conflict with China.

Adm. Paparo told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the Chinese military threat is increasing.

“The trajectory of the PLA, the People’s Liberation Army, across all of its services, and its activity and its aggression, that itself is the greatest challenge,” he said.

He warned that cyberattacks against American command and control, electronic and space systems would be “the first battle” in a conflict with China.

Warfare involving those domains “will be either the enabling capability for the joint force or the Achilles’ heel for the PLA if that day comes,” he said.

Asked about his predecessor’s widely cited disclosure several years ago that China’s communist leaders have ordered the country’s military to be ready to take over Taiwan by 2027, Adm. Paparo said the PLA “intends to be ready by 2027.”

“But that’s related to nothing other than the 100th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army,” the four-star admiral said.

“In fact, I think they’re working to be ready every day, and they could go, and we’ve got to be constantly vigilant. There’s no holiday between now and when they may go,” he said.

Adm. Paparo said U.S. military forces must “be ready now, next week, next month, and in the decades to come” to deter an attack.

U.S.-China tensions remain high over the self-ruled island that China claims as its territory and has vowed to rule one day.

China has been conducting aggressive military operations with warplanes and warships for the past two years, including confrontations with U.S. and allied warships conducting regular “freedom of navigation operations” through the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait.

On creating a joint task force, Congress mandated the multiservice unit for the Pacific in recent legislation, but lawmakers say the Pentagon and Biden administration have hesitated out of fear that the move would be too provocative for Beijing. The goal of the measure is for U.S. forces in the Pacific to have a standing force in place that could better conduct joint operations if a conflict erupts with China.

Despite the legal requirement for the joint task force, the Indo-Pacific Command has said a lesser task force on Guam, known as Joint Task Force-Micronesia, fulfilled the legislative requirements.

Sen. Roger F. Wicker, a ranking committee member, told Adm. Paparo that the legislation clearly mandates a standing, permanent joint task force headed by a three-star officer.

The task force would focus on command-and-control warfighting, the Mississippi Republican said.

Adm. Paparo said he has “qualified” as a joint task force commander but so far has not operated in that position.

Asked about the legal requirement in the fiscal 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), Adm. Paparo said he is aware of the measure and that staffing such a force would require “several hundred” additional military personnel.

“The chair and I, and I think the members of this committee overwhelmingly, are united that we need a three-star billet and staff actually in the hundreds to carry this out,” Mr. Wicker said. “It seems to me we are really not ready unless we do that.

“We’ll be readier when we do,” Adm. Paparo said.

He added that he has clear guidance from Congress and the NDAA to move ahead with the task force.

Needed first step

The Washington Times disclosed in December that Congress and the Pentagon were at odds over the joint task force. The law says it must be established as an operational command by October.

Supporters in Congress argued in passing the legislation that the task force is a needed first step in what lawmakers from both parties say should be a multiservice and multinational task force under the Indo-Pacific Command.

Joint task forces are military units that combine forces from the Army, Navy, Marines and Air Force into one unit and, in some cases, include officers from foreign military services. They are often created to prepare for combined arms warfare, a U.S. military specialty.

The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party first disclosed the brewing political battle over the task force in May. The committee issued a report that said the Pentagon must “fully implement” legislation on a standing joint force headquarters “focused on crisis contingency command and control.”

“In a crisis, critical time could be lost adjudicating which organization or senior leader is in charge of the day-to-day conduct of various coalition operations,” the committee report said. “This type of planning should be done in peacetime, ideally with the inclusion of personnel from key allies like Japan and Australia.”

On Taiwan, Adm. Paparo said a direct Chinese invasion is not the only scenario setting off a larger conflict in the region.

A Chinese naval blockade of the island is also possible.

“If we’re just planning for an invasion, we’re leaving a wide range of military options unplanned for,” Adm. Paparo said.

He noted that the military is planning for deterrence and response to various Chinese military operations.

China is also conducting what the admiral said is “gray zone” operations in the South China Sea, which involve enacting laws claiming sovereignty over maritime territory and then gradually increasing the use of force to enforce those claims, he said.

Asked whether the threat from Beijing would be diminished if China took over Taiwan, the admiral replied that China has larger military ambitions. China’s aggressive behavior in other regions and its large-scale military buildup for wide-power projection are signs that Taiwan is not the sole objective, he said.

Asked about priorities for his new assignment if confirmed, Adm. Paparo said he would like to deploy a multilayered, integrated air and missile defense system covering “the surface of the sea to the heavens” that would defend 170,000 Americans on Guam and the American homeland.

In written answers to questions from the committee, Adm. Paparo warned that Chinese “coercive behavior will continue to be a major challenge in the region as it threatens, destabilizes and sows disorder.”

The admiral said he needs to close “gaps” in weapons and other elements of power, including long-range weapons, air and missile defenses and logistics capabilities to deter China.

“A more robust defensive posture is the most pressing priority for the Indo-Pacific to adequately address the threats we face from the PRC,” he told the committee.