Commanders boost playoff odds while resting on bye week, preparing for final stretch

The Washington Commanders’ playoff odds soared this weekend while their players relaxed at home on their bye week.

Thanks to losses by the Atlanta Falcons and the Arizona Cardinals, the 8-5 Commanders woke up Monday morning with an 81% chance of making the playoffs, according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats. 

The Commanders entered their long-awaited Week 14 rest squarely in the driver’s seat for the third and final wild-card spot in the top-heavy NFC with a 71% chance of making the postseason. 

Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — who bumped their chances from 57% to 72% as they took over first place in the NFC South — and the Los Angeles Rams — who upset the AFC East-leading Buffalo Bills to jump from a 17% chance to a 30% chance — did more to improve their playoff odds over the weekend. 

After weeks of clinging to the seventh seed, Washington received some help from the Detroit Lions, who defeated the sixth-seed Green Bay Packers on Thursday to drop the squad to 9-5. The Commanders are just one game removed from the sixth seed. 

That difference could be enormous this season. The NFC’s seventh seed will likely face the 11-2 Philadelphia Eagles in the first round of the playoffs. Led by quarterback Jalen Hurts and running back Saquon Barkley, the Eagles have looked like a juggernaut during their nine-game winning streak. 

But the sixth-seeded team will likely face a much easier matchup against the third seed. The 8-5 Seattle Seahawks currently hold that spot as the top team in a beleaguered NFC West. 

Commanders coach Dan Quinn wasn’t focused on seeding when he watched the games from home on Sunday. He said he was locked in on the New Orleans Saints’ win over the New York Giants.

While Washington’s final stretch features a slate of seemingly winnable matchups — including next week’s trip to New Orleans — Quinn noted that he hasn’t started talking about the playoffs with his team. 

“We don’t really try to look too far down the line. For us, the only fight that matters is the one we’re in. That’s what we do,” Quinn said Monday. “It’s honestly a big story to make sure that we can have the discipline just to stay in it.”

The 5-8 Saints have likely lost quarterback Derek Carr for the season after he suffered a fractured hand against the New York Giants. Rookie Spencer Rattler, who started three games earlier this season, could start in his absence. Second-year quarterback Jake Haener finished Sunday’s game for Carr. 

A date with the Eagles awaits on Dec. 20 in a tough matchup at Northwest Stadium. Next comes a showdown with the Falcons — who have lost four straight as quarterback Kirk Cousins struggles — and a season finale against the Dallas Cowboys and backup quarterback Cooper Rush. 

The bye week provided rest opportunities for a haggard Commanders squad that dealt with injuries throughout the season. The team will still be without running back Austin Ekeler and kicker Austin Seibert. The duo is on injured reserve until the Week 18 finale in Dallas. 

“We knew we needed some space to heal up and get healthy. That’s why I enjoyed today being around them,” Quinn said. “There was a bounce and an energy with the guys to get going. To have these guys trending this way and feeling better, that’s a big deal.”

Cornerback Marshon Lattimore, the former Saint who joined the Commanders at the trade deadline, could make his Washington debut on Sunday in New Orleans. A hamstring injury has sidelined him for the last month. 

Offensive tackle Andrew Wylie could also return to the starting lineup after missing the Dec. 1 win over the Tennessee Titans with a concussion. 

The recovery time and boosted playoff odds are a step in the right direction in Quinn’s eyes, but they haven’t locked up a postseason berth yet. He told the team they were at a “base camp” in the climb toward the playoffs.

“We’re not at the bottom, but we’re nowhere near the summit. You just try to get to the next camp, and then to the next one, and then to the next one,” Quinn said. “Can we be disciplined enough to not look three and four weeks down the road?”