China missile test a key sign of Rocket Force power

NEWS AND ANALYSIS:

China’s People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force is aggressively building up its missile forces with new and more lethal systems and with a heavy emphasis on deploying and building hypersonic missiles, according to defense officials.

The Rocket Force, in charge of both conventional and nuclear missile power, “continued an aggressive modernization and production plan” this year, one official told Inside the Ring in a recent briefing on the Chinese military.

The official, speaking on background, described the missile expansion as “a pretty dramatic increase” over the past several years, both in number of launchers deployed in silos and on mobile launchers as well as in the actual numbers of missiles supplied to missile units.

There was a “lot of emphasis on hypersonics,” the official said of China’s military missile program.

China’s first deployed hypersonic missile is the medium-range DF-17, which can fly at speeds up to 7,600 MPH while maneuvering to defeat missile defenses. The missile can be armed with either a conventional or nuclear warhead and can hit U.S. military bases in the region as well as moving warships.

“There is clearly an intent to expand that capability, probably across multiple types of hypersonics,” the official said.

The Chinese military has “got a fielded [medium-range ballistic missiles] and they’re probably going to have a fielded [intermediate-range ballistic missile] and [intercontinental ballistic missile] that can display hypersonic capabilities. In fact, they’ve already demonstrated some in testing of ICBMs,” the official said.

The officials also said recent cases of corruption within the Rocket Force have had little impact on the capabilities and readiness of Chinese missile forces. Corruption is endemic in the Chinese military and efforts to root out corruption are more likely the result of political purges than actual wrongdoing.

“We call it ‘corruption.’ They just call it the way they do business,” the official said. “I don’t think the case of the Rocket Force leadership is suggestive that the entire either upper echelon of the PLA — or the Rocket Force as a service — is all gooned up.”

The military purge since July 2023 has ensnared at least 15 military and defense industry officials, most notably Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who had been the commander and commissar of the Rocket Force. Despite the shake-up, the missile service is not weak or hollow, the official said, noting many examples of successes in both activities and training.

Asked if Chinese President Xi Jinping is conducting the purges to root out corruption or to sideline political rivals, the official said both factors are behind the effort. At the same time, Mr. Xi is also seeking to bolster military readiness, the official said.

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told Congress in March that Chinese leaders “almost certainly” fear corruption will hurt Chinese military capabilities and reliability.

The defense official, however, said one of the Rocket Force’s most dramatic recent actions was the late September test launch of a DF-31 mobile missile that flew 7,456 miles into the Pacific. It was Beijing’s first long-range open ocean test since 1980.

The missile took off from Hainan Island in the South China Sea and flew over areas near the Philippines and Guam before landing north of French Polynesia. Contrary to recent reports, none of the nations in the region affected by the missile test were notified in advance, although Beijing did alert the U.S. Embassy.

The September DF-31 test provided valuable technical information on heat, shear and friction on the shrouds used to protect warheads during reentry into the atmosphere. The metallurgy and weld strength of the reentry vehicles were also tested, the officials said.

The ICBM test also delivered a strategic message to the United States and other potential rivals, signaling the power of China’s rapidly expanding nuclear capabilities. “It’s designed to tell potential adversaries ‘Look what we’ve got, look what we were able to do, and be mindful of that,’” the official said.

The U.S. official said he does not believe the Pacific ICBM test was timed to coincide with the presidential election or with the latest tensions between Washington and Beijing. The most likely explanation for the timing of the test — two months before the U.S. vote — was that China’s military was ready for it and weather and other conditions were right.

Even so, the flight of the DF-31 did pass just north of Guam, a U.S. military hub in the Pacific that would likely be targeted by Chinese missiles in a future conflict over Taiwan, the official said.

Commander: ‘Very, very high probability’ U.S. military would defend Taiwan

Adm. Sam Paparo, the four-star commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, says U.S. military forces are ready to defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack even though the long-held American policy of “strategic ambiguity” remains in place.

Asked by a military blogger whether the United States would come to Taiwan’s defense if China attacks, Adm. Paparo outlined his understanding of American policy toward the defense of the island democracy.

The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act and subsequent U.S.-China communiques and understandings order the Pentagon to support Taiwan with defensive capabilities and services and “to be ready,” he said. The strategic ambiguity in this approach leaves unclear exactly how the U.S. government as a whole would respond to a Chinese invasion.

“But it is complete operational clarity for the Defense Department to be ready,” he said in an interview on the military podcast “Deep Intel.”

“I can’t speak for what the administration is going to decide,” he said. “An administration always has the ability to say yes or no. But this body of knowledge puts it at a very, very high probability that if [China] were to change the facts on the ground with force, that the [U.S.] force is sized, it is directed to be ready to respond and come to Taiwan’s aid,” he said.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered his military to have the capability for military action against Taiwan by 2027 at the latest. In recent months, China’s military has been conducting exercises that the Pentagon has said appear to be practice for future operations against Taipei.

Adm. Paparo said any failure to defend Taiwan would damage the U.S. and global economies and undermine American alliances in the region.

“If the PRC were to change the facts on the ground in Taiwan with force, then all of our relationships in the Pacific — all of the security relationships that we have — will come into question,” he said, using the abbreviation for People’s Republic of China.

The loss of Taiwan could result in Japan, South Korea and the Philippines being forced to “submit to the PRC’s particular brand of coercion” and give up intellectual property and sea territory to Beijing. Key U.S. allies could also resort to arming themselves with nuclear weapons to defend against China, leading to a more dangerous world.

Chinese annexation of Taiwan would also affect production of high-end semiconductors, since 56% of advanced microchips are produced in Taiwan. Any interruption in Taiwan semiconductor production could lead to a 10% reduction in U.S. gross domestic product and a 25% reduction in GDP for China, Japan and South Korea, he said.

“Stability is underpinned by deterrence,” Adm. Paparo said. “Deterrence is underpinned by real combat capability. … So as the saying goes in Latin, … ‘If you want to see peace, be ready for war.”

U.S. arms sales to Taiwan fall during Biden years

Despite labeling China as the “pacing” U.S. global security challenge, the Biden administration has reduced defensive arms sales to Taiwan over the past four years, according to an analysis by a pro-Taiwan organization.

The Arlington, Virginia-based U.S.-Taiwan Business Council stated in a report made public this week that dollar amounts for arms offered for sale to Taiwan declined each year since 2022 under President Biden.

The council stated that total Biden administration arms sales to Taiwan since 2021 were valued at $5.7 billion. By contrast, during the single term of the first Trump administration between 2017 and 2021 a total of $18.3 billion in arms were sold, including $8 billion for new F-16 jets.

Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the council, said the arms sales figures are not the sole metric in gauging support, but are nevertheless an important indicator.

It is unclear why the Biden administration has steadily reduced the value of arms sales.

“As the numbers note, and as USTBC’s analysis has consistently stated, U.S. support for Taiwan’s material force modernization has been waning since 2021,” Mr. Hammond-Chambers said in a statement. “It now sits at its lowest point since 2001, bar the Obama administration’s four-plus-year arms sales freeze from 2011 to 2015, and it is continuing to fall.”

The list of Taiwanese arms sales by administration shows that the Clinton administration provided $8.7 billion worth of weapons in its eight years, while the George W. Bush administration sent $15.6 billion in arms over two four-year terms. Two terms under the Obama administration resulted in $13.9 billion worth of arms.

During the George W. Bush and Obama administrations from 2001 to 2017, arms sales to Taiwan were curbed in an unsuccessful bid to promote better relations with China.

“These administrations took the view that if material support for Taiwan was curbed, this would encourage China to soften or change aspects of its behavior. That never happened,” Mr. Hammond-Chambers said.