OPINION:
This is my final column of 2024, which means it is time to assess the quality of my predictions offered at the beginning of the year. As always, the record isn’t perfect, but it isn’t too bad, either. We’ll start with the correct and mostly correct guesses.
“The Dow Jones Industrial Average will close 2024 above 40,000.” Too easy.
“Congress will still be working on appropriations for fiscal year 2025 at the end of 2024 (which will be three months after the start of fiscal year 2025).” Again, fish in a barrel.
“The various legal efforts to put Donald Trump in jail will remain unresolved as of Election Day.” The bad guys keep trying, but to no avail.
“The United States will still not have a southern border by the end of 2024. Illegal immigration will surge during the last half of the year in anticipation or fear of a victory by Mr. Trump.” Spot-on.
“The Supreme Court will unanimously strike down efforts to disqualify Mr. Trump from ballots on the basis of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.” The court wisely did so.
“Despite not having enough time to steal the University of Washington’s signals during the regular season, the University of Michigan will win the national championship in 2024.” Michigan did.
“The Yankees will continue to not win anything of any importance. … It’s the general manager, folks; he’s never won and can’t win anything.” If you’re a Yankees fan, winning the pennant is de minimis.
Oil prices will close the year below $80 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude closed on Dec. 26 below $70 per barrel. I am going to declare victory on this one.
“There will be a bit more than 1 million electric vehicles sold in the United States in 2024, or about the same amount as were sold in 2023.” This will be close to on target depending on what fourth-quarter sales look like.
“Most of the shooting in Ukraine will be over, and there will be a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict. So, the military-industrial complex is going to have to find some other wars.” Most of the shooting is over.
Now the mixed ones:
“President Trump will win the presidential election in 2024. In response, there will, of course, be protests and riots in places like Washington, New York and Portland.” Got the tough part of this right, and long before most people. That didn’t stop the collectivist schoolmarms at Politico from harrumphing that I was wrong about the riots. Who could have guessed the liberal crazies would show restraint?
“The Democrats will regain control of the House of Representatives. The Republicans will regain the right to preside over the United States Senate and may choose a new majority leader.” As my man Meat Loaf sang, two out of three ain’t bad.
“Las Vegas will get an NBA expansion franchise in 2024. In a related development, legal gambling will continue to pervade and finance sports at all levels.” Probably just a year early on a team in Las Vegas, and that inevitable investigation over gambling in college sports is just waiting out there.
“‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ will win best picture at the Oscars. No one notices or really even cares.” “Oppenheimer” won (don’t lie and say you remembered that).
The ones I got wrong:
“The Mets will, again, finish out of the playoffs, despite having the league’s largest payroll. Again, Mets fans will be inexplicably surprised.” Whatever.
“Shohei Ohtani will, unfortunately, not lead the Dodgers to a World Series victory, in large measure because he will spend much of the season on the disabled list.” I’m giving up on baseball.
“Congressional Republicans will continue to do nothing with respect to the threat posed by China. Use of the communist regime’s most effective psy-ops — TikTok — will continue to expand in the United States.” I am happy to be wrong about the congressional Republicans on this one. I am not happy about all the TikTok fans in the president-elect’s orbit (looking at you, Jeff Yass).
“The Buffalo Bills will win the Super Bowl in 2024.” I’m going to keep picking the Bills until they win.
Let me know if you have any predictions for the new year. If you prefer, we’ll print the spicy ones anonymously.
• Michael McKenna is a contributing editor at The Washington Times.
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