Elbridge Colby and Pete Hegseth: Charting a new course for U.S.-Taiwan security

OPINION:

President-elect Donald Trump’s appointment of Elbridge Colby as the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, alongside Pete Hegseth’s leadership of the Department of Defense, signals a significant shift in U.S. defense priorities from the Biden administration.

This development is crucial for America’s global strategy and has profound implications for Taiwan. For a region facing the relentless pressure of China’s expansionist policies, these two figures’ strategic focus and no-nonsense approach offer a wake-up call to Taiwan’s political and military establishment.

Pete Hegseth, known for his sharp critique of America’s waning ability to project power effectively, brings an unapologetic worldview to the Pentagon. His writings decry the erosion of military readiness, systemic inefficiencies, and the corrosive impact of divisive ideologies, such as Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) initiatives, within the Department of Defense. Under his leadership, the focus is likely to return to strengthening America’s warfighting capabilities and addressing the existential threats posed by authoritarian regimes like China and Russia. For Taiwan, this is a reassuring sign. A stronger, more focused U.S. defense posture directly correlates with its security and resilience against Beijing’s aggression.

Elbridge Colby’s track record and strategic insights further underscore the importance of this shift. As one of the architects of the 2018 National Defense Strategy, Mr. Colby emphasized prioritizing great power competition, with China as the foremost challenge. His work has consistently urged allies and partners, particularly Taiwan, to take their defense obligations seriously. Mr. Colby’s writings, including a recent article in the Taipei Times, have not minced words about Taiwan’s inadequate defense spending and lack of preparedness. He has pointed to examples like Poland, which allocates 5% of its GDP to defense despite a smaller threat compared to the existential challenge Taiwan faces from China. Taiwan, by contrast, spends a mere 2.45%, a figure that pales compared to the scale of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) buildup.

At this critical juncture, Mr. Colby’s frank assessment of Taiwan’s shortcomings is precisely what the island needs. His advocacy for an asymmetric defense strategy—focusing on cost-effective, high-impact measures to deter a larger adversary—aligns with Taiwan’s harsh realities. While Taiwan has made some progress, such as adopting asymmetric strategies and acquiring advanced weaponry, it still has much to do in building the robust, decentralized, and resilient defense posture required to withstand a potential Chinese invasion.

However, defense spending is only one piece of the puzzle. Taiwan will have to address internal vulnerabilities that undermine its security. One glaring issue is the persistent problem of military information leaks, often linked to certain Kuomintang (KMT) parliamentarians. The ties of some political factions to Beijing not only compromise Taiwan’s security but also erode public trust in the government’s ability to safeguard the island’s sovereignty. With the possibility of recall elections targeting these KMT politicians, Taiwan has an opportunity to confront these internal threats and demonstrate its commitment to national security.

The implications of Mr. Colby’s appointment extend beyond Taiwan. His emphasis on hard truths is equally relevant to Europe, where countries like Poland have set a high standard for defense readiness. Mr. Colby’s acknowledgment of Poland’s 5% GDP allocation for defense—despite facing a weaker adversary in Russia than Taiwan’s challenge with China—highlights the stark discrepancy in priorities. This comparison should serve as a clarion call for Taipei to recalibrate its defense policies and spending.

For Taiwan, the stakes could not be higher. The CIA has confirmed that Chinese Dictator Xi Jinping has directed the PLA to prepare for an invasion by 2027. U.S. military officials have repeatedly warned that a Chinese strike could come with little warning, making it imperative for Taiwan to act urgently. Yet, visible signs of societal and governmental preparedness are lacking. Unlike Israel, where civil and military readiness is a national ethos, Taiwan appears complacent, distracted by broader geopolitical narratives such as Ukraine’s conflict, rather than focusing on its immediate existential threat.

The new leadership in the Pentagon offers Taiwan a strategic opportunity to strengthen its defenses and deepen its alliance with the United States. However, this partnership cannot be one-sided. As Mr. Colby has argued, American support will depend on Taiwan’s willingness to invest significantly in its own defense. The U.S. cannot be expected to compensate for Taiwan’s inaction, especially when American resources are stretched across multiple global theaters. Taiwan must recognize that its defense is not just a matter of purchasing weapons but also of societal resilience, strategic clarity, and political will.

With Mr. Colby serving as an Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Taiwan might start prioritizing the following:

1. Dramatically Increase Defense Spending: Raising defense spending to at least 3-4% of GDP is a necessity, 5% would be even more adequate. This investment must be directed toward asymmetric capabilities, such as missile systems, drone technology, and cyber defense, that can effectively counter the PLA’s overwhelming advantage.
2. Address Internal Security Risks: The leakage of military secrets and the influence of pro-Beijing elements within Taiwan’s political system are critical vulnerabilities.
3. Strengthen Societal Readiness: Taiwan must cultivate a culture of national defense akin to Israel’s. This includes military training, public awareness campaigns, and the establishment of civil defense networks to prepare for a potential conflict.
4. Enhance U.S.-Taiwan Cooperation: Proactive engagement with the U.S. and other allies is essential. Taiwan must align its defense strategies with American priorities, ensuring that joint efforts are efficient and mutually reinforcing.

Elbridge Colby’s appointment and Pete Hegseth’s leadership represent a pivotal moment for U.S. defense policy. This is an opportunity for Taiwan to reassess its priorities and take bold actions to secure its future. The window for preparation is closing rapidly. Taiwan must act now to ensure that it remains a bastion of democracy and freedom in the face of authoritarian aggression.

• Stan Kwiatkowski is a political commentator, YouTuber (creator of Stan from Poland 斯坦-波蘭ê台灣囡仔 and Freedom is Not Free), and a PhD candidate in human rights at the University of Sussex.  Stan has lived in Taiwan for more than nine years and is fluent in Mandarin, Japanese, Taiwanese, English, German, and Polish.