Russia will abandon North Korea

OPINION:

Syrian dictator Bashar Assad said he “never considered stepping down or seeking refuge, nor was such a proposal made by any individual or party.”

In July, Mr. Assad visited with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and no doubt was told by Mr. Putin that Moscow would protect the Assad regime.

But Russia didn’t protect the Assad regime. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking on Dec. 7 in Doha, Qatar, said Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the group that toppled the Assad regime, was a terrorist organization, while Russia’s Foreign Ministry used more diplomatic language, calling the group, known as HTS, an “armed opposition group.”

Since 2015, Russia has been militarily supporting the Assad regime, with a naval base in Tartus and an air base in Latakia. This gave Russia a presence in the region, something Mr. Putin coveted. It’s questionable whether HTS will permit Russia to maintain this military presence in Syria. Regardless, it’s apparent that Russia suffered a humiliating defeat in Syria and abandoned Mr. Assad.

Russia’s abandoning the Syrian dictator shouldn’t be a surprise to North Korea. In 1985, Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev, inheriting a costly and eventual military defeat in Afghanistan, started to distance the Soviet Union from North Korea while moving toward formal diplomatic relations with South Korea, which were established in September 1990.

The Soviet Union’s 1961 Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance with North Korea formally ended in 1995, replaced by a February 2000 treaty that emphasized trade and excluded military assistance, prominent clauses in the 1961 treaty.

Fast-forward to this past June and Russia’s new treaty with North Korea: the Treaty of Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. This new treaty states that if either country is invaded, the other must provide military and other assistance. Indeed, the treaty immediately benefits a revanchist Russia and its war of aggression in Ukraine.

North Korea is reportedly providing artillery shells, ballistic missiles and over 10,000 special forces troops to Russia. In return, Russia is likely to provide North Korea with food aid and energy assistance, with likely assistance to North Korea’s satellite and nuclear programs.

But when the war in Ukraine ends, a heavily sanctioned Russia will likely walk away from North Korea, as it did in 1995 when Moscow renounced the 1961 treaty with North Korea and as it just did with Mr. Assad.

History has a way of repeating itself, and it should be self-evident to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that Mr. Putin is using North Korea for military assistance in his war in Ukraine. Once North Korea ceases to be of value to Mr. Putin, North Korea will have to find its own way.

And that way isn’t relying on Mr. Putin and Russia. Mr. Kim was correct in meeting with then-President Donald Trump in Singapore, Hanoi and the DMZ. He was correct in pursuing the goal his father, Kim Jong Il, and his grandfather Kim Il Sung pursued: normal diplomatic relations with the U.S.

North Korea pursued that objective for over 30 years, with high points including the 1994 Agreed Framework, the September 2005 Joint Statement of the Six-Party Talks and the summits between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim, as well as Mr. Trump’s symbolic visit to the DMZ.

Mr. Kim, his father and his grandfather knew that normal relations with the U.S. would permit North Korea to receive significant economic development assistance as a legitimate member of the international community. Today, North Korea is heavily sanctioned and is aiding Russia, a pariah state, with its war of aggression in Ukraine. Dealing with a fickle Mr. Putin, who will abandon North Korea as his predecessors did, is not in North Korea’s interest.

Eventually, returning to negotiations with the Trump administration would be in North Korea’s best interest.

• Joseph R. DeTrani is the former director of East Asia operations at the CIA, former special envoy for talks with North Korea (2003-2006) and former director of the National Counterproliferation Center. The views expressed here are the author’s and not those of any government agency or department.