Stores haven’t been crying wolf about crime in recent years, according to an industry report that finds retail theft and losses nearly doubled from before the pandemic.
The National Retail Federation and nonprofit Loss Prevention Research Council said this week that retailers participating in a survey reported a 93% spike in the average number of annual shoplifting incidents from 2019 to 2023 and a 90% surge in related dollar losses over the same period.
They surveyed 164 grocery, pharmacy, general merchandise, home improvement, luxury and specialty retailers, representing $1.52 trillion in annual sales last year, or 30% of the U.S. retail market.
“Retailers are working hard to provide a safe and secure shopping environment, despite the daily occurrence of shoplifting and the threat of violence against their employees and customers,” National Retail Federation Vice President David Johnston and Loss Prevention Research Council Executive Director Read Hayes said in a joint letter introducing the report. “However, this is not a problem that retailers alone can solve.”
The report endorsed tighter federal penalties for retail crimes. It said 94% of surveyed loss and prevention officers believe legislation is needed to solve the problem.
Hundreds of stores such as Walgreens, Target and Nordstrom have pulled out of crime-plagued urban locations since 2019 because of a surge in violent thefts and smash-and-grab robberies.
Others have locked products behind plastic shields and hired extra security. They have ordered employees not to intervene in thefts because they prefer to absorb the losses rather than risk more considerable financial liability from violent confrontations.
The nonpartisan Council on Criminal Justice reported last month that shoplifting rates in the three largest U.S. cities — New York, Los Angeles and Chicago — remained higher in the first 10 months of this year than during the same period in 2019.
Christopher Tang, a business professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, who studies retail supply chains, said soft-on-crime policies, worker shortages and fewer store consumers have “encouraged people to commit crimes.”
“In California, it’s crazy because people can just walk in, grab something and walk out,” Mr. Tang said in a phone call. “People are afraid to intervene, and the police don’t care.”
Mr. Tang said recent policy changes and government task forces targeting the problem have failed to change the reality that less than 1% of shoplifting crimes result in prosecution.
Capital One recently estimated that retail theft losses nationwide will swell from $121.6 billion last year to more than $150 billion by 2026. It noted that stores catch shoplifters 2% of the time, and police arrest the average offender just once out of every 100 incidents.
The FBI, which doesn’t report retail numbers separately, said violent crime dropped by 10.3% nationwide in the first six months of 2024.
Several industry insiders told The Washington Times that falling crime rates have not included retail stores.
They noted that shop owners have struggled to pay for increased security while dealing with revenue losses and a labor crunch that has made it difficult to hire enough staff.
“This leads to customer dissatisfaction because staff members are difficult to find, not as knowledgeable, and are not able to properly maintain the shelves and the inventory,” said Tom Arnold, a finance professor at the University of Richmond.
Public opinion surveys suggest worker shortages and fears of violent crime have increased migration in recent years away from bricks-and-mortar stores.
In October, Texas communication platform Theatro said 78% of consumers responding to a survey feared for their safety and security while shopping in person at stores. Nearly half expressed frustration that understaffing made them feel less protected from theft and violence.
“Rising retail theft threatens to turn holiday shopping into vigilance and online ordering,” said Michael Austin, a former economic adviser to two Kansas governors and an economist with the National Center for Public Policy Research’s Project 21.
As retail thefts surge, in-store shopping has declined as an overall share of the holiday market.
Adobe projects U.S. online holiday sales will hit a record $240.8 billion for November and December, up 8.4% from 2023. That includes a new high of $128.1 billion in purchases made on mobile devices, 53.2% of online holiday spending.
The National Retail Federation predicts that winter holiday sales will rise from $964.4 billion last year to $989.9 billion this year. That includes a jump in online sales from $276.8 billion to $300 billion, increasing from 28.7% to 30.3% of the total.
For the 2024 holiday season, the National Retail Federation said 57% of consumers planned to do at least some shopping online, followed by 46% who said the same of department and grocery stores and 45% of discount stores.
In the National Retail Federation and Loss Prevention Research Council report published this week, 91% of surveyed retailers said shoplifters were more violent and aggressive than in 2019.
About 84% said that “violence during a crime has become more of a concern in the last year.”
“This suggests that heightened security fears and diminished expectations of a good experience will result in a significant decline in physical sales without the incentive of big discounts,” said Sam Kain, a finance instructor at Walsh College in Michigan.
Angelica Gianchandani, a marketing instructor at New York University, urged retailers to add digital security enhancements.
“Messaging should emphasize how these solutions safeguard products and provide customers with a secure shopping experience,” Ms. Gianchandani said.
• Sean Salai can be reached at ssalai@washingtontimes.com.
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