Will Trump have a Reagan moment?

OPINION:

On Dec. 2, on his Truth Social page, President-elect Donald Trump wrote that “the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity.” He added, “Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America.”

As this column has frequently pointed out, President Biden has done absolutely nothing to free the at least 101 hostages — including three Americans — believed to be still alive and held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Will Mr. Trump have a Ronald Reagan moment? He will if the Iranians — who command all of the terrorist groups involved — do what they did the day Reagan was first inaugurated president.

The first Iranian hostage crisis took place at the tail end of Jimmy Carter’s presidency. Then, 53 Americans, including diplomats, civilians and Marine guards, were held hostage from Nov. 4, 1979, to Jan. 20, 1981, the day of Reagan’s inauguration.

The Carter administration, which dithered and fumbled around diplomatic “solutions” to the crisis, briefly recognized the futility of their diplomacy and mounted the failed “Operation Eagle Claw” military rescue mission on April 4, 1980. When that ended, Mr. Carter and his advisers went back to dithering and tried to ransom the hostages by paying the Iranians the assets we held because of their hostage-taking.

The Carter administration tried to claim credit for the release through the “Algiers Accords,” which included payment to Iran of about $1 billion in ransom. But the world knew that the Iranians released the hostages because they were afraid of what Reagan would do.

The Iranians knew that Reagan wouldn’t dither with diplomacy and would strike — hard — against the then-new Iranian revolutionary regime. They knew this because of what we used to call the “cowboy factor.” The old movie star was president and — unlike Mr. Carter — had a real backbone.

The Iranians’ wisdom in fearing Reagan was proved eight years later when an Iranian attack damaged a U.S. Navy ship. Reagan ordered “Operation Praying Mantis,” leading to the biggest naval surface engagement since World War II. In the course of that engagement, two Iranian surface platforms were destroyed along with about half the Iranian navy.

Mr. Trump benefits from the same “cowboy factor.” He is more mercurial than Reagan was and maybe just as tough. His Dec. 2 message was not for Hamas, Palestinian Jihad or Hezbollah. It was for the ayatollahs, and they must be debating how much danger they are in.

If the Iranians don’t order the release of the U.S. and Israeli hostages by Inauguration Day, Mr. Trump can and should strike Iran directly. Mr. Trump will, as this column has pointed out, place his “maximum pressure” sanctions on Iran to damage its economy severely. The target list for a strike on Iran is long and inviting.

The Israelis proved in their last strike on Iran that Iran is entirely vulnerable to stealth aircraft (as well as to covert operations like the one in which Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was killed in Lebanon). If Mr. Trump chooses to do so, U.S. stealth aircraft can strike Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal. Were he to choose a more ambitious plan, he could strike Iran’s nuclear sites or even its government centers. There is a host of targets in addition to those cited here.

When Mr. Trump said that those responsible for the hostage-taking would be “hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America,” he presumably, and characteristically, exaggerated. But the Iranians don’t know what he’ll do.

On Dec. 5, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence issued a report that said, “Iran now has enough fissile material to make more than a dozen nuclear weapons,” but has not yet decided to do so. That report is difficult to believe because the Iranians are intent on developing and deploying nuclear weapons. That raises the heat on the Iranian nuclear program and focuses Mr. Trump’s threat on it.

As Sun Tzu wrote 2,300 years ago, the master of war is not one who wins every battle but one who can win the battle without fighting. If the Iranians wish to avoid open war with the United States, they will order Hamas and the other terrorist networks — all of which are Iranian proxies — to release the hostages without Mr. Trump having to fire a shot.

That would give Mr. Trump a perfect Reagan moment. It would be foolish for the Iranians to believe Mr. Trump is bluffing. It would be Mr. Trump’s duty to prove he is not if they do.

• Jed Babbin is a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and contributing editor for The American Spectator.