U.S. tests new hypersonic missile, but still lags far behind China

NEWS AND ANALYSIS:

The Pentagon successfully tested a new hypersonic missile last week, but American efforts to match China’s growing arsenal of hypersonic missiles still lag years behind.

The Defense Department’s latest annual China military power report, made public Wednesday, reveals new details on People’s Liberation Army hypersonic missiles, which are already deployed and are capable of striking U.S. bases in Asia and soon the continental United States.

China’s military has emerged as the global leader in ultra-high-speed, maneuvering missiles that cannot be countered with U.S. missile defenses.

“The PRC has the world’s leading hypersonic missile arsenal and has dramatically advanced its development of conventional and nuclear-armed hypersonic missile technologies during the past 20 years,” the report stated, using the abbreviation for People’s Republic of China.

By contrast, the U.S. Army and Navy are playing catch-up despite announcing several years ago that fielding hypersonic missiles was a high priority.

The latest annual China military survey also revealed the addition of hundreds of new long- and medium-range missiles and 100 more new nuclear warheads in Beijing’s arsenal.

China’s wide-ranging missile production includes hypersonic, ballistic, cruise, air-to-air and surface-to-air missiles, many of which are comparable in quality to top-tier international systems.

China’s first deployed hypersonic missile is in a glider carried atop the last stage of its DF-17 missile. The missile skims the upper atmosphere and can maneuver at very high speeds, a feature China developed to defeat robust U.S. missile defenses, the report said.

With a range of 1,500 miles, the DF-17 deployment since 2021 “will continue to transform the PLA’s missile force,” the report said. Deployment is expanding and was reflected in the addition of 300 new medium-range missiles added to the Chinese military between 2023 and this year.

New DF-17s are replacing older short-range ballistic missiles and will “be used to strike foreign military bases and fleets in the Western Pacific,” such as American bases in Japan, the report said. 

The Chinese military also advanced its scramjet-powered hypersonic missile development since 2022, the report said.

The report identifies a second major hypersonic missile, the DF-27. That missile can be armed with a hypersonic glider payload, in addition to land-attack, conventional anti-ship and nuclear warheads.

China is also working on an ICBM-launched nuclear hypersonic missile and a unique space-orbiting hypersonic missile known as a fractional orbital bombardment system, or FOB.

“The PRC probably is developing advanced nuclear delivery systems, such as a strategic [hypersonic glide vehicle] and a FOB system, in part due to long-term concerns about United States missile defense capabilities as well as to attain qualitative parity with future worldwide missile capabilities,” the report said.

China’s military recently deployed a long-range variant of the 5,000-mile-range DF-27 that can be armed with a hypersonic warhead that blurs the distinction between an ICBM and an intermediate-range missile. The variant can reach targets in Alaska and Hawaii, the report said, and can hit U.S. military bases on Guam.

The long-range FOB missile outfitted with a hypersonic warhead was tested on July 27, 2021, and traveled around 25,000 miles in space before hitting a surface target.

The Pentagon announced Dec. 12 the successful Army and Navy flight test of the co-developed component of the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon, the main U.S. hypersonic strike weapon, from Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida.

Earlier test failures have set back the U.S. race to match China’s hypersonic missiles by at least a year. Most estimates put the first U.S. hypersonic missile at two years away from initial deployment. The Army, however, is pushing to have its first hypersonic missile fielded in 2025.

The Air Force abandoned development of an air-launched hypersonic missile after years of unsatisfactory test results.

Adm. Christopher Grady, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the newsletter DefenseScoop in November that “Hypersonics 2.0 and 3.0,” the next phase of development, will start in the next couple of years.

“We know that hypersonics allow us to get after time-critical, heavily defended targets,” Adm. Grady said. “We know that hypersonics allow us to defeat adversary hypersonics. And then, we also know that hypersonics allow us to leverage hypersonic aircraft and spacecraft missions in those two domains.”

China reveals hypersonic drone test

Video circulating online reportedly shows China’s flight test of a new hypersonic strike drone.

The video from the Chinese Academy of Sciences shows what is called the “MD-21” unmanned hypersonic vehicle released from a high-altitude Chinese balloon and reaching speeds of Mach 7, or around 5,370 mph.

The video first appeared online in an X post by Chinese military blogger Wen Jian on Dec. 15. Two days later, a more detailed report was published in the Beijing-leaning South China Morning Post. 

Analysts say China’s military frequently shows off advanced weapons systems through online disclosures.

Retired Navy Capt. Carl O. Schuster, a former Pacific Command intelligence officer, said the drone test highlights the priority China places on building hypersonic weapons.

“A successful flight from a near-space balloon does not an imminent entry into service make, but it does reflect intent and progress,” he said. “Barring development problems, a hypersonic drone lies only five to 10 years away, depending on challenges encountered and the level of resources applied to their solution.”

The drone is being developed by the academy’s Institute of Mechanics, or IMECH, and is said to have a range of 4,971 miles with a payload capacity of 1,323 pounds — enough for either a conventional or nuclear warhead, the South China Morning Post reported.

The video quotes Li Wenhao, an engineer at the institute, as saying: “The flight path is highly complex — diving first, then ascending and returning, which makes this generation of aircraft even more challenging than its predecessors.”

Design development included 30 variants that have been under development since 2018.

“We are currently developing a new generation of aircraft to make wide-range hypersonic vehicles even faster and more efficient,” said Liu Wen, an associate professor with IMECH.

Chinese deepfake threat triggers warning to Congress

The FBI recently warned several members of Congress who focus on China that Beijing may use artificial intelligence to smear them with “deepfake” videos or audio. The false narratives were said to be the work of Chinese intelligence and involved an operation to falsely portray the targeted members as having taken bribes from Taiwan, China’s rival.

The FBI gave some pro-Taiwan members targeted in the campaign classified briefings on the operation.

China “is trying to undermine congressional support for Taiwan’s democracy, to paint it as corrupt and not in the American public interest,” a U.S. official told NBC News, which first reported the activity.

Rep. John Moolenaar, chairman of the Select House Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, declined to comment on the reported smear campaign but noted that China has targeted U.S. officials and other Americans in the past.

“The CCP will try to discredit our way of life, our freedoms and will use every means necessary,” the Michigan Republican said. “So whether it’s hacking high-level officials’ communications, we can expect all these things.”

Federal authorities have said the Chinese government-linked hacking operation called Volt Typhoon had breached U.S. telecommunications networks and targeted information from cellphones of senior U.S. political figures.

The Pentagon’s latest annual report on the Chinese military said the People’s Liberation Army is developing “deepfake” capabilities as part of its information warfare tools.

“PLA researchers have been interested in developing this technology since 2011, when National University of Defense Technology researchers proposed using audio-visual technology to imitate voices of foreign senior political and military leadership to mislead adversaries and shape their decision-making process,” the report said.

Deepfake warfare by the Chinese army includes “voice information synthesis technology,” a core tool used to make the fake videos and audio.

“In 2020, elements of the PLA had reportedly created a deepfake to mislead the U.S. public,” the report said, adding that the capability is viewed as a low-cost and quick-to-develop warfare tool with a low threshold for use in operations.

China on ’The Art of War’

A Chinese military spokesman disclosed this week that China is steeped in the ideas of the ancient strategist Sun Tzu, who is aligned with China’s brand of Marxist dialectics.

Sr. Col. Wu Qian told reporters that Sun Tzu, author of the book “The Art of War,” remains integral to Chinese military strategy.

The book is a valuable asset promoting the essence of military strategies and tactics “by applying the principles of dialectics,” he said.

Written around 500 B.C., “The Art of War” is heavily focused on military intelligence activities. One of its more famous maxims is “To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill,” a practice many China experts say is guiding Beijing’s policy toward the United States.

“The study of Sun Tzu’s ‘Art of War’ is not to go back to the past but to guide the present,” Col. Wu told reporters at a recent Beijing conference on the ancient strategist.