Beijing designs military for war with U.S., including missiles, cyber-enabled psychological weapons

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has added hundreds of new missiles and 100 more nuclear warheads as part of a military buildup designed for a war with the United States, according to a Pentagon report made public Wednesday.

For the first time, the survey of Chinese military power reveals extensive PLA preparations for sophisticated information warfare operations against the United States, including the use of deepfake online posts and cyber-enabled psychological warfare. Pentagon analysts said the goal is to influence U.S. military leaders’ decision-making, demoralize troops and sow divisions in American society.

The report provides new details on extensive PLA advances in weapons systems, doctrine and training. The efforts include practice for missile strikes against U.S. aircraft carriers and warships during operations against Taiwan, the self-ruled island that Beijing has vowed to annex as early as 2027.

“The PLA increasingly views warfare as a confrontation between opposing operational systems, rather than annihilation of opposing mechanized military forces,” the report said. “Following this logic, PLA writings refer to systems destruction warfare as the next way of war, transforming from mechanized warfare to an informatized and intelligentized style.”

The PLA calls its information warfare activities “cognitive domain operations.” The report describes “an asymmetric capability to deter U.S. or third-party entry into a future conflict, or as an offensive capability to shape perceptions or polarize a society.”

The operations target the U.S. government and military, media organizations, businesses, academic and cultural institutions, and policy communities.

Missile buildup

The report says the PLA Rocket Force has rapidly expanded its arsenal of missiles. Since the U.S. estimate in 2023, it has added 50 intercontinental ballistic missiles, 300 medium-range ballistic missiles and 100 long-range, ground-launched cruise missiles.

The expansion is part of Beijing’s long-term modernization program to bolster strategic deterrence. It includes the development of ICBMs “that will significantly improve its nuclear-capable missile forces and will require increased nuclear warhead production.”

China also is working on a conventionally armed ICBM for precision-guided attacks against the United States, the report said. The missile “would enable [China] to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii, and Alaska.”

China’s military is improving missile systems with artificial intelligence systems that will make strikes more precise, the report said.

“The PRC’s military modernization efforts have rapidly transformed the PLA’s missile force,” the report concludes.

The rapid missile buildup has not been affected by what the Pentagon calls “a new wave” of corruption investigations. The investigations led to the removal of at least 15 officers and several civilian defense officials, including the defense minister, Li Shangfu. The probe appears linked to programs modernizing ground-based nuclear and conventional missiles.

The Rocket Force’s commander and political commissar were removed in July 2023 and may have been linked to missile procurement fraud.

“The impact on PRC leaders’ confidence in the PLA after discovering corruption on this scale is probably elevated by the PLA [Rocket Force’s] uniquely important nuclear mission,” the report said.

Repairs to missile silos after the scandal likely increased the operational readiness of the silo-based missile forces, including the estimated 300 multiwarhead missiles added at three fields in western China, the report said.

Nuclear warhead expansion has also continued apace. The PLA now holds more than 600 warheads and is expected to have 1,000 by 2030. Several years ago, the warhead stockpile was below 300.

Three milestones

A senior Pentagon official told reporters before the report’s release that the PLA’s military buildup has three goals: to be ready for military action against Taiwan by 2027, to support national objectives by 2035, and to field a world-class military by 2049, the centenary of the communist regime’s founding.

Although the report outlined significant Chinese military advances, the Pentagon official repeated the Biden administration’s position that war with China is not close or preordained.

“We don’t think conflict is imminent or inevitable,” the official said.

The report said the 3 million troops and naval, air and missile forces appear to be preparing for a conflict with the United States, possibly over Taiwan or in the South China Sea. PLA Joint Sword exercises around Taiwan in April included the first Chinese drills using an aircraft carrier to simulate attacks on the island, the report said.

China’s military is also embracing cutting-edge technology to deter U.S. military forces in the Pacific from coming to the aid of allies or partners in the region.

“The PLA is pursuing next-generation combat capabilities based on its vision of future conflict, which it calls ‘intelligentized warfare,’ defined by the expanded use of AI, quantum computing, big data and other advanced technologies at every level of warfare,” the report said.

The ruling Chinese Communist Party plans to use the PLA to promote its communist system through several initiatives. China’s leaders say the goal is to replace the “unipolar” American-led international order worldwide.

China’s navy is now the largest in the world, with 370 warships. It includes large annual deployments of new frigates and destroyers and smaller numbers of new nuclear and conventionally powered submarines. China is also engaged in the large-scale production of J-20 jet fighters.

The report said the missile forces include Chinese hypersonic missiles that fly at extremely high speeds just below space and can maneuver to avoid U.S. missile defenses.

Three warfares

The PLA has created a military subunit called the Information Support Force, which conducts “three warfares”: public opinion warfare, psychological warfare and legal warfare.

Military cyber operations will be used for psychological manipulation. “Psychological warfare remains prominent in [Chinese Communist Party] thinking of the military’s evolving roles and responsibilities,” the report said.

The digital influence operations used in cognitive warfare seek to demoralize adversaries and influence domestic and foreign audiences. They will involve military and civilian elements. The effort even includes studying ways to directly affect adversaries’ brains.

This was disclosed in 2016 PLA research into cognitive functions and neural pathways, including using brain-computer interfaces. The interfaces allow humans and computers to exchange information through devices implanted in the brain or placed on the skull.

“The PLA is exploring a range of ‘neurocognitive warfare’ capabilities that exploit adversaries using neuroscience and psychology,” the report said.

The report said the PLA needs cognitive warfare tools to counter the American use of digital narratives to undermine the Chinese communist system. The Chinese military views cognitive warfare as the next evolution in information warfare using modern internet technology and communication platforms, seeking to change enemy behavior and decision-making through artificial intelligence, big data, brain science and neuroscience.

“The goal of [cognitive domination operations] is to achieve what the PLA refers to as ‘mind dominance,’ which the PLA defines as the use of information to influence public opinion to [e]ffect change in a nation’s social system, likely to create an environment favorable to the PRC and reduce civilian and military resistance to PLA actions,” the report said.

PLA cognitive warfare aims to impose psychological pressure and fear on the enemy and force a surrender without firing a shot on the battlefield.

Plans call for using deepfakes, such as synthetic media that imitates the voices of foreign senior political or military leaders to mislead adversaries and influence decisions.

PLA researchers are working on voice information synthesis technology for low-cost but high-impact military operations involving greater authenticity and less human input for deepfakes.

Chinese influence operations also seek to convince U.S. regional allies that Washington is untrustworthy, hegemonic and a violator of international law.

“Beijing likely uses official government statements, state-run media, and online disinformation to promote a narrative that Washington seeks to initiate a new Cold War by pressuring Indo-Pacific countries to ally with the United States and strategically encircle the PRC,” the report said.

A section of the report lists advanced weapons developed by the PLA and states that new weapons will allow military attacks deeper into the region and worldwide, including space weapons, directed-energy guns, cyberattacks, long-range precision strike arms, advanced drones and electronic warfare systems.