SEOUL, South Korea — While one Korea escalates its arms and troop support to the aggressor in the Ukraine war, multiple factors are preventing the other Korea from supporting the defender.
While the disparity between the actions of North and South Korea is startling, recent moves by the regime of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un are also showcasing the differing levels of risk tolerance inside the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea axis, an alliance of U.S. adversaries that some Western observers fear has been bolstered by the war.
While Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov met Mr. Kim in Pyongyang over the weekend, South Korea was extending a loan to Ukraine for “social expenses.” North Korea’s state media offered few details but described the Belousov-Kim meeting as “friendly and trustworthy.”
Pyongyang vowed in a statement to “invariably support the policy of the Russian Federation to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity from the imperialists’ moves for hegemony.”
The disparity is stark: While North Korea supplies the Kremlin with vast arms supplies and over 10,000 troops, South Korea, with one of the world’s most advanced defense export sectors, sends only money — so far — to Kyiv, even after Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov traveled to Seoul last week for talks with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol.
Ukrainian press outlets report that Ukraine received $100 million as part of a loan from South Korea for “budget assistance,” Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Nov. 29. South Korean media described the loan as “social expenses.”
The South Korean presidential office and the Ministry of National Defense have been tight-lipped on what else was discussed, but both South Korean law and South Korean politics appear to be handicapping what Seoul can offer to Kyiv.
Media speculated widely that South Korea — which is already supplying NATO countries such as Estonia, Finland, Poland, Norway, Romania and Turkey with advanced, heavy weapons — would discuss arms supply to Ukraine. But that speculation contradicts South Korean law, politics and public sentiment, as well as political factors impacting its key ally.
Though South Korea has sent approximately 1 million 155 mm artillery shells to the U.S., supposedly to “backfill” U.S armories depleted by Pentagon shipments to Ukraine, South Korean law forbids arms exports to nations engaged in combat.
Mr. Yoon, given his government’s minority status in the National Assembly and the leftist majority’s strong opposition to any such step, is powerless to overcome the restriction.
It is not just legal barriers: An October Gallup Korea poll found that 82% of South Korean citizens oppose direct military support for Kyiv.
U.S. politics now has generated yet another obstacle for Seoul. A source familiar with diplomatic affairs said there is unlikely to be any movement in Seoul toward Ukraine until the incoming Trump administration enters office and clarifies its own stance on Ukraine.
By contrast, the Kim regime, untrammeled by laws or popular opinion, is actively supplying munitions, arms and troops to Russia. With the dispatch of an estimated 10,000 to 13,000 North Korean troops to the battlefront along the Russian-Ukrainian border, Pyongyang is so far the only third country to enter the nearly three-year-old conflict with its own forces.
Strengthening Moscow-Pyongyang defense ties illuminate uneven risk tolerances inside the quartet of U.S. adversaries, China, Iran, Russia and North Korea — sometimes referred to as “The CRINK.”
Of the four states, China is the most heavily reliant upon global trade, so has the most to lose from global sanctions related to Ukraine. While China’s bilateral trade with Russia has shot up since the outbreak of the Ukraine War, Chinese firms has pointedly not supplied lethal aid to the Kremlin in an effort to skirt Western sanctions.
However, Ukraine has revealed that Western components are inside both Russian and even North Korean weapons on the battlefield. Those reports illustrate both the complexity of global supply chains and the various “back doors” — notably through Central Asia — that remain open for sanctioned Russia to receive clandestine imports.
Iran has supplied Russia with thousands of “Shaheed” drones and reportedly ballistic missiles, but is currently facing a string of threats closer to home, including struggles for its allies in Lebanon and Syria.
The heavily sanctioned fortress state of North Korea, however, stands out as the axis partner most resistant to global pressures.
North Korea has directly supplied Russia with some 8 million rounds of artillery munitions, according to South Korean intelligence, as well as multiple launch rocket systems. With North Korea and Russia sharing a land border and close sea links, there is little the wider world can do to halt the shipments.
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
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