OPINION:
The simmering conflict between Israel and Iran may be ready to boil over with the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, in Tehran. Haniyeh and his personal bodyguard, Abu Shaaban, were killed after attending the inauguration ceremony of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian where he participated in the mass chanting of “Death to America,” and “Death to Israel” in the Iranian parliament.
How they were killed remains a mystery. It was reported that it was a missile, but it’s more likely to be a bomb. The Iranians quickly covered up the side of the building where Haniyeh was killed with tarps but it’s plain to see that the roof of the building remained intact (no vertical entry of a missile or plane-dropped bomb). In the end, the method doesn’t really matter. It’s the boldness of the action and the message that it sends to Hamas and Iran that matters, “there’s nowhere to hide, we have spies everywhere and we can find you and reach you anywhere.”
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This is an incredibly important message because of Iran’s efforts over the last decades to fund, train, and weaponize a circle of proxy armies around Israel with the intent to overwhelm it in a multi-front war. Israel is in the final process of defeating one of those armies, Hamas, and it looks like it is now about to dismantle Hezbollah in Lebanon. These are massive strategic losses to Iran’s leadership and the assassination of Haniyeh in the Iranian regime’s backyard is a clear shot across the bow. The assassination also helps Israel’s Mossad gain back some measure of respect after their disastrous miss of the Hamas attack of Oct. 7, 2023.
The Oct. 7 attack was a massive intelligence failure for Mossad, which has long been regarded as one of the most formidable intelligence agencies in the world. The surprise attack by Hamas not only resulted in substantial casualties but also shook the confidence of the Israeli public in their security apparatus. This failure was a stark reminder of the challenges and complexities of intelligence work in a region fraught with volatility and unpredictability.
In the aftermath of the attack, Mossad faced intense scrutiny and criticism from both domestic and international observers. Questions were raised about the agency’s ability to anticipate and prevent such threats, leading to a period of introspection and reevaluation within the organization. The successful assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, therefore, serves to restore confidence in the Mossad.
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This operation showcases Mossad’s ability to conduct high-stakes missions with precision and effectiveness, sending a clear message to its adversaries. It underscores the agency’s commitment to safeguarding Israel’s national security and its readiness to take bold actions when necessary. Moreover, it highlights the importance of intelligence in shaping the strategic landscape of the Middle East, where timely and accurate information can be the difference between peace and conflict.
The successful execution of this mission also has broader implications for Israel’s deterrence strategy. By eliminating a key figure like Haniyeh, Mossad not only disrupts the operational capabilities of Hamas but also signals to other hostile entities that Israel remains vigilant and capable of striking decisively. This will surely give Iran pause and should keep them from a knee-jerk reaction as any significant response on Tehran’s leadership so they will need time to make sure their air defenses are as strong as possible for what would be an overwhelming Israeli counterattack.
The “how” of the assassination will be made clear in time, but in the meantime, Israel’s incredibly bold move has not only embarrassed Iran but also raised the specter of an all-out war between the hated enemies. However, recent history suggests that even such provocative escalations don’t always lead to full-scale war. Back in April, Israel’s assassination of two top Iranian generals in Syria was expected to ignite a major war, yet it resulted in only a limited punch, counterpunch engagement that was over almost before it started. It amounted to nothing more than a rock fight between children and was a complete head-scratcher for many observers. For those who looked at those events quizzically, the word on the street is that the United States brokered a face-saving deal, allowing both nations to claim decisive action without further escalation.
The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is incredibly complex, and the potential for war between Israel and Iran carries significant implications not just for the region, but for global stability. Iran’s leadership, under the Ayatollahs, has long used external conflicts to consolidate internal power and distract from domestic issues. The assassination of Haniyeh could be seen as a catalyst for Iran to rally its population against a common enemy, thereby strengthening the regime’s grip on power.
Moreover, the international community’s response to this assassination will be crucial. Countries like Russia and China, which have vested interests in the region, may use this opportunity to further their own geo-political agendas. The United States, traditionally an ally of Israel, will also play a pivotal role in either de-escalating or exacerbating the situation. Diplomatic maneuvers behind the scenes could either prevent a full-scale war or inadvertently trigger one.
It’s also important to consider the economic ramifications of a potential conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical choke point for global oil supplies, could become a flashpoint, disrupting global markets and causing economic instability worldwide. The ripple effects of such a conflict would be felt far beyond the borders of Israel and Iran, impacting everything from energy prices to international trade routes.
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What happens this time is anybody’s guess but many hope for war as they see it as the key to ending the regime of the Ayatollahs. But war may just be the only hope the Ayatollahs have to save themselves. That’s because the Iranian regime is its own worst enemy and is held in contempt by most of the Iranian populace. Eventually, the regime will collapse under its own weight of corruption, misrule, and heavy-handedness.
Another significant and yet underreported factor that’s undermining the regime is the remarkable growth of the Iranian church. In response to the oppressive Ayatollahs, the masses have turned away from Islam and are embracing Christianity. Iran is now cited as having the fastest-growing church in the world.
So, the breakout of war may be the Ayatollah’s only hope to save themselves and may just snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Jeff King has served as ICC President since 2003 and is one of the world’s top experts on religious persecution. He has advocated for the persecuted everywhere, testifying before the U.S. Congress on religious freedom. He has been interviewed by leading media outlets such as the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, and The Washington Times. Jeff King is also available as a guest speaker. To learn more, go to Christian Persecution and Spiritual Growth Speaker | Jeff King Blog.
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