Harris leads Trump by 6 points among likely voters in new poll

Vice President Kamala Harris has opened up a 6-point lead over former President Donald Trump among likely voters in a national poll.  

Ms. Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, is leading Mr. Trump 53% to 47% in the poll by Marquette Law School released late Wednesday. That’s an 8-point swing from the same poll in May, when Mr. Trump led President Biden among likely voters by 2 points.

Mr. Biden dropped out of the race on July 21.

When the survey added in third-party candidates, Ms. Harris’ lead over Mr. Trump among likely voters grew to 8 percentage points, 50% to 42%. 

Additionally, the Cook Political Report has moved the battleground states of Georgia, Arizona and Nevada from “lean Republican” to “toss up” status. Cook said Ms. Harris is leading Mr. Trump in the report’s political tracker by less than 1 percentage point nationally, while Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden three weeks ago by 2.5 points.

Despite the support for Ms. Harris in the Marquette survey, 58% of registered voters think Mr. Trump will definitely or probably win in November, while 42% say Ms. Harris could see a win in November.

Ms. Harris’ favorability has risen 12 points in the survey since May. She is now viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 50% by registered voters, while 3% say they haven’t heard enough. In May, 35% said they viewed her favorably, while 59% viewed her unfavorably and 6% weren’t sure.

Mr. Trump’s favorability rose a few points since the assassination attempt in July. This poll found that 45% view him favorably and 53% view him unfavorably, with 1% without an opinion. In May, 41% viewed him favorably and 58% unfavorably, with 1% lacking an opinion.

The poll was conducted from July 24 to Aug. 1 with 879 registered voters nationwide. It has a margin of error plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The likely voters sample size was 683, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.