The morning of June 26, the Cleveland Guardians and Philadelphia Phillies were on pace for 107 wins. The New York Yankees were on pace for 104, and the Baltimore Orioles and Los Angeles Dodgers for an even 100.
Those five teams still have the top records in the game, but since then, they’ve all dealt with stretches of mediocrity. Now Cleveland has baseball’s best record but is on pace for only 98 wins. The Guardians are the only team left with a winning percentage above .600.
Perhaps it was only a matter of time before regression arrived, but it’s been jarring to see so many teams at the top struggle. Here’s a look at the challenges they’ve faced.
Guardians: 16-18 in their last 34 games.
Cleveland recently went on a five-game winning streak, so let’s not overstate the extent of this downturn. Still, the Guardians’ run differential of minus-22 over the last 34 games suggests some issues. They’ve averaged only 3.71 runs per game over that span as their hitting with runners in scoring position - a major reason for their success - has slipped.
But the Guardians can bounce back because of Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith and Tim Herrin — who have combined for 208 relief appearances this year. All have ERAs under 2.00. We’ve seen some regression from Cleveland, but that quartet has remained strong.
Phillies: 4-12 in their last 16 games
When Philadelphia lost to Oakland 18-3 on July 14 it seemed like a bit of a fluke, but the Phillies haven’t looked right since. In the last 16 games, Philadelphia’s bullpen has an ERA of 7.13, and the Phillies lost All-Star left-hander Ranger Suárez to the injured list due to back problems.
The Phillies will look to recover after giving their bullpen a bit of a makeover, trading Seranthony Domínguez and Gregory Soto and adding Carlos Estévez and Tanner Banks. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola remain solid at the top of the rotation.
Orioles: 18-21 in their last 39 games. Injuries have caught up to the Baltimore pitching staff, and star catcher Adley Rutschman hit .132 in July.
But the Orioles also made some additions to the rotation and bullpen at the trade deadline, and they’ve gotten a big spark of late from top prospect Jackson Holliday, who is back from the minors for his second stint with the club this year. Holliday struggled mightily at the plate back in April, but in his five games since returning, he’s 7 for 18 with two home runs.
Yankees: New York is 17-24 in their last 41 games.
There have been a lot of problems. Every one of the Yankees’ starting pitchers has an ERA over 5.00 over the past 41 games. And the offense hasn’t done nearly enough to support Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.
But they may have already turned the corner. The Yankees have won seven of their last eight, including a three-game sweep in Philadelphia. They scored 63 runs in those eight games, and their schedule looks favorable down the stretch.
Dodgers: 10-12 in their last 22 games.
The Dodgers have struck out 230 times in those 22 games, a high number even in this day and age. The rotation has had room for improvement for a while, and Clayton Kershaw’s return hasn’t been the answer so far. Los Angeles won the NL West by 16 games last year and by 22 in 2022. The lead is just 4 1/2 right now over San Diego.
They made a significant move at the deadline, bringing in right-hander Jack Flaherty, and Mookie Betts is due back soon from his broken hand.
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