The path to the House majority runs mostly through Democratic-leaning districts with Republican-held seats and swing-state races that could closely align with the presidential vote in November.
Republicans control the House with a razor-thin majority and are defending seats they won in the last election cycle. They also are looking for opportunities to pick up seats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control of the House and are targeting seats they lost in 2022 while trying to protect their incumbents.
With Election Day 2½ months away, the battlefield is evenly split.
“Control for the House still looks pretty purely like a toss-up,” Erin Covey, who analyzes House races for The Cook Political Report, told The Washington Times. “A month ago, when [President] Biden was still at the top of the ticket, that was very much in question.”
Democrats were worried that Mr. Biden, plagued by low approval ratings, would diminish the party’s turnout in November and impede downballot races.
Since replacing him as the party’s nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris has drummed up enthusiasm that House Democrats hope will trickle down to their races.
New York and California
In 2022, Republicans won the House majority mainly by flipping seats in New York and California. Those districts will again serve as battlegrounds that could determine which party wins control of the lower chamber.
“Democrats have enough opportunities in either of those states to make up the entire difference,” Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections, told The Times. “That’s the ballgame.”
Mr. Biden won all but three of the 17 competitive districts in New York and California in 2020. If Ms. Harris can re-create the coalition of younger, more liberal voters that supported him in those areas, Democrats will have multiple pathways to take the House, Mr. Rubashkin said.
One critical race to watch is California’s 13th District, which freshman Rep. John Duarte represents.
“Duarte was the weakest Republican [on the ballot] in that district in 2022. Every other Republican statewide overperformed him,” Mr. Rubashkin said.
Democrats have a better chance of picking up his central California district than the neighboring 22nd District, where Rep. David Valadao outperformed other Republicans, including President Trump in 2020, and demonstrated more crossover appeal.
Mr. Duarte and Mr. Valadao are two of three Republicans representing California districts that Mr. Biden won by double digits in 2020. Ms. Covey said Rep. Mike Garcia’s seat in the 27th District is a potential pickup for Democrats.
In New York, Democrats’ best opportunity is to defeat Rep. Brandon Williams in the 22nd District, which redistricting has made more liberal.
Mr. Williams is the only battleground incumbent that Inside Elections assesses as an underdog. It labels his district “Tilt Democratic.”
“He hasn’t really kind of served like a moderate from a district that voted for Biden by double digits. He’s a pretty conservative guy,” Mr. Rubashkin said. “And he has had some personal baggage that has been not so kind to him.”
Mr. Williams won in 2022 by 1 percentage point against a Democrat who, like him, had never held political office.
His challenges compound this cycle. The New York Legislature added more Biden voters to his district, and he faces an experienced Democratic politician, state Sen. John Mannion.
Of the three New York districts The Cook Political Report rates as toss-ups, Ms. Covey said the 4th District, represented by Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, a Republican, is most likely to flip. Mr. Biden won the district by 14.5 percentage points in 2020.
“Even though Long Island is kind of different and does tend to elect more Republicans downballot … if Harris is winning the seat even by a high single digit, it’s going to be difficult for the Republican incumbent to overperform Trump to the extent that he needs to,” Ms. Covey said.
Incumbent advantage
Although incumbency isn’t worth what it once was, it could make a difference in a close overall race, Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, said in emailed comments to The Times.
“One tiny advantage for Republicans is that essentially all of their vulnerable seats are being defended by incumbents,” he said. “The Democrats have incumbents running in the vast majority of their vulnerable seats, but they do have a few legitimately competitive open seats.”
Mr. Kondik cited Michigan’s 7th and 8th districts, California’s 47th District and Virginia’s 7th District — all held by Democrats but open this cycle because incumbents are either retiring or running for higher office.
“Open seats are just more difficult to defend,” Ms. Covey said. She noted that the two in Michigan are especially challenging terrain because Mr. Biden barely topped Mr. Trump in those districts in 2020.
The loss of the incumbent name brand is most significant in Michigan, where Rep. Daniel Kildee is retiring after six terms. He succeeded his uncle, former Rep. Dale Kildee, who served for 36 years.
Perennial Republican candidate Paul Junge, who lost to Mr. Kildee in 2022, has some name recognition as he makes his third bid for the 8th District seat this cycle, but it may not all be good.
“He was a self-funder, and Democrats were able to kind of easily paint him as a trust-fund kid and a carpetbagger last cycle,” Ms. Covey said.
Mr. Rubashkin agreed that Mr. Junge is one of the Republicans’ weaker candidates but said even Democratic polling has shown him leading.
In the other three open battleground districts, Democrats are losing the fundraising prowess of incumbent Reps. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Katie Porter of California and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia.
Ms. Slotkin and Katie Porter ran for Senate this year. Ms. Slotkin advanced to the general election, but Ms. Porter lost her primary. Ms. Spanberger is running for governor next year.
“It absolutely is a financial hit for Democrats to have to run new candidates in those seats,” Mr. Rubashkin said. “And for Republicans, they are pretty much across the board running repeat candidates, and so they have the ability to start a little bit sooner.”
Of the returning Republican candidates, Scott Baugh came the closest to winning last cycle in California’s 47th District. He lost to Ms. Porter by 3 percentage points. This year, he faces Democratic state Sen. Dave Min.
Presidential swing states
The two open Michigan seats are among a handful of competitive House races in presidential swing states where the outcome at the top of the ticket could have a downballot effect.
The others all feature incumbents, including Republican Reps. David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani in Arizona’s 1st and 6th districts, and Democratic Reps. Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania’s 7th and 8th districts.
In North Carolina, Republicans see a prime opportunity to flip the 1st District, represented by Democratic Rep. Donald Davis. Mr. Trump won North Carolina in 2020, but Mr. Biden narrowly carried the 1st District and Ms. Harris has been polling well in the state this cycle.
In 2020, Mr. Biden won six of the seven districts, except for Pennsylvania’s 8th District, which Mr. Trump carried by 3 percentage points.
Running in a state where the primary focus is on the presidential race can be a blessing and a curse.
“There’s going to be the increased presence of volunteers and organizing infrastructure that we’re seeing in a lot of these battleground states going to trickle down to help these House members,” Ms. Covey said.
Conversely, competing for attention in a media market with multiple competitive races “makes it that much more expensive for everyone involved to run a campaign,” Mr. Rubashkin said.
Michigan, Arizona and Pennsylvania also have battleground Senate races this cycle.
Trump-district Democrats
Although Democrats are focused primarily on offensive opportunities, winning the House majority will require defending incumbents, particularly in districts Mr. Trump won in 2020.
Reps. Jared Golden of Maine, Marcy Kaptur of Ohio, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, Mary Peltola of Alaska and Mr. Cartwright all represent districts Mr. Trump carried.
“They’re also some of the Democrats’ strongest incumbents, just because they have done more to separate themselves from the national party,” Ms. Covey said. “But they are going to be in difficult positions.”
Because splitting tickets is not nearly as common as it once was, those Democrats need Ms. Harris to be somewhat competitive with Mr. Trump in their districts, Mr. Rubashkin said.
“There’s not a candidate in the country who can overcome a truly abysmal presidential performance anymore,” he said.
• Lindsey McPherson can be reached at lmcpherson@washingtontimes.com.
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