Chinese security services are blocking America’s diplomatic efforts

NEWS AND ANALYSIS:

American diplomatic efforts to conduct people-to-people contacts and exchanges in China are being blocked by Chinese intelligence and security services.

The Chinese government, reflecting the hard-line communist policies of President Xi Jinping, is engaged in an aggressive anti-spy campaign that is affecting public diplomacy by the U.S. Embassy and consulates in the country.

For example, the State Department has been working to arrange for Chinese students to study in the U.S. and in 2023 issued 105,000 student visas. More than that will be issued this year, with around 300,000 Chinese students expected to be studying at American universities by the end of the year.

Behind the scenes, however, the Chinese Communist Party’s security services, including agents of the Ministry of Public Security, have been blocking U.S. efforts to encourage Chinese students to go to America.

The efforts include interrogation, intimidation and threats of expulsion of students from their Chinese institutions. In some cases, parents of the students who want to study at U.S. schools have been threatened by the security organs in a bid to dissuade their children from studying abroad.

In addition, the Ministry of Public Security has shut down American-sponsored educational exchange programs in Shenyang, Wuhan, Guangzhou and Shanghai by the MPS.

The actions by the public security ministry, along with the Ministry of State Security, reflect the growing power of those agencies in the Chinese government.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has been somewhat supportive of building better U.S.-China exchanges. But the security agencies now have more power and the backing of Mr. Xi.

The security services have also blocked the U.S. Embassy in Beijing from hiring a single Chinese national for the past three years, hampering basic American diplomatic operations.

The security crackdown prompted Nicholas Burns, U.S. ambassador to China, to go public with complaints that China is not following through on promises made by Mr. Xi at a summit with President Biden last November in California, where he promised to increase people-to-people exchanges.

“They say they’re in favor of reconnecting our two populations, but they’re taking dramatic steps to make it impossible,” Mr. Burns told The Wall Street Journal in June.

Mr. Xi has expressed interest in allowing 50,000 American students to study in China. The current number of Americans at Chinese universities is under 1,000.

A China-based observer told Inside the Ring that hard-line Chinese Communist Party policies are being aggressively promoted throughout the country. A key reason is the idea that a future war between China and the U.S. is inevitable.

As for foreign spying, the Ministry of State Security on Sunday announced it had spotted companies with ties to foreign intelligence services using meteorological wind measuring towers to spy on confidential sites.

The ministry said on its WeChat social media account that the data could be used for precision military attacks.

New report says China could take Taiwan islands

China could take control of outlying Taiwanese islands in the coming months through a quarantine or other coercion as part of a larger Beijing strategy for annexing the self-ruled island, according to a new think tank report.

In addition to the main island of Taiwan, the outer Kinmen and Matsu archipelagos are the most vulnerable territories, says a report by the Institute for the Study of War made public Wednesday.

“Long excluded from U.S. defense commitments due to the perception that they are impossible to defend, the tiny island groups are now targets of a broad range of coordinated [People’s Republic of China] measures to coerce, persuade, or otherwise influence them to integrate with their giant neighbor,” the report said.

Politically, the islands are already dominated by pro-China views with politicians and residents there enticed by the economic benefits of Chinese investment, trade, tourism and infrastructure.

Also, the small Taiwanese military and coast guard presence on the islands could fall easily to Chinese aggression.

“The loss of these territories would strike at the core centers of gravity for deterrence in the Taiwan Strait: Taiwan’s political will to resist PRC aggression and its relationship with the United States,” the report said.

The failure of the U.S. to respond to the loss of the islands would also severely weaken alliances with Japan, South Korea and Philippines.

The report concludes that maintaining Taiwanese sovereignty over the islands is vital.

China may take control of the outlying islands through means short of armed conflict, the report says, noting the Chinese seizure in 2012 of the Philippines’ uninhabited Scarborough Shoal.

Kinmen hosts around 140,000 people, including some 3,000 military personnel. China could follow the model used by Russia in 2014 to seize Crimea from Ukraine, the report said.

China has been challenging Taiwan’s control over the islands since February through repeated coast guard incursions in waters around Kinmen.

The goal of the incursions is to normalize a false Chinese law enforcement jurisdiction in the area, the report said.

Those efforts can be escalated and lead China to impose a coast guard quarantine around Kinmen to deny Taiwan access.

The report states that U.S. unpreparedness or unwillingness to intervene to defend Kinmen increases the likelihood of systematic Chinese coercive action.

Chinese “efforts to seize Kinmen will strike at Taiwan’s political will to resist ‘unification,’” the report said. “A successful incorporation of Kinmen by the PRC would significantly diminish Taiwan’s faith in the United States’ will to come to Taiwan’s aid and its own ability to defend itself.”

The report urges Washington to prepare for China launching a “short-of-war” campaign against the outlying islands.

Greater U.S. information efforts should be undertaken to debunk Chinese propaganda seeking to justify the islands’ takeover.

Other preventive steps should include greater U.S. and allied efforts to thwart a future quarantine and communication blockade of the islands.

“The United States should respond to a successful PRC seizure of Kinmen by significantly increasing its troop deployments and arms sales to Taiwan, coordinating joint coast guard patrols with Taiwan and other partners, and amending relevant laws to help protect Taiwan’s outlying islands from further coercion,” the report said.

Military exercise advances global missile defense

U.S. and allied military forces recently conducted joint exercises in Hawaii that further advanced regional integrated air and missile defenses.

The twice-yearly exercises known as Pacific Dragon 2024 finished Sunday in Kauai, Hawaii, at the Pacific Missile Range Facility, the Navy and Missile Defense Agency said in statements.

Air and missile defense forces from the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Italy, Netherlands and Denmark took part.

The exercises included both live-fire and simulated intercepts of ballistic missiles. Multinational tracking of target missiles and sharing of data also was practiced with “the goal of exercising, refining and improving their [integrated air and missile defense] capability in a coalition environment,” the Navy said.

In the live fire portion of the drills, the combined forces worked together to shoot down an SM-3 Block IA “high reward target” with an interceptor missile, the Navy and Missile Defense Agency said.

The exercise, hosted by the Navy’s 3rd Fleet, was also the first time U.S. and allied forces used a new and improved target missile called the Integrated Air and Missile Defense Target. The missile is a semi-guided target designed to trigger and engage terminal ship defenses like the SM-2 and SM-6 anti-missile interceptors.

“Through exercises and engagements like Pacific Dragon, we improve system interoperability and tactical procedures with our allies and partners,” said Vice Adm. John Wade, 3rd Fleet commander. “Combined operations and Integrated Air and Missile Defense tracking and live-fire events improve our proficiency and contribute to maritime security.”

Integrated air and missile defenses will be key weapons systems should a conflict break out with China in the Indo-Pacific region.

China operates the largest force of ballistic and cruise missiles in the region.

In a separate drill, Taiwan’s military this week fired surface-to-air missiles in live-fire missile defense exercises in response to increased military pressure from China.

The exercises in southern Taiwan included launches of the domestic Sky Bow III anti-ballistic missiles and the U.S.-made Patriot PAC II and surface-to-air Standard missiles.

Defense Ministry spokesman Sun Li-fang told reporters all the missiles hit their targets. 

“This shows our training is very strict and solid,” he said.

• Contact Bill Gertz on X @BillGertz.