Vice President Kamala Harris’ rise in the polls isn’t a wave of voters ditching former President Donald Trump, but rather formerly reluctant Democrats and independents who are giving her a new look.
Ms. Harris kicks off the Democratic National Convention on Monday enjoying a remarkable run that’s seen her claim a lead over Mr. Trump in many of the national polls, and go toe-to-toe with him in the half-dozen states expected to determine the Electoral College winner.
It’s not been a seismic shift. She’s only gained a few percentage points among independents and young voters, compared to what President Biden was getting just a month ago.
They’re chiefly voters who were never going to vote for Mr. Trump but were also reluctant to back Mr. Biden, and now tell pollsters they’re behind Ms. Harris.
But it’s been enough to rewrite the narrative of the race. What had been Mr. Trump’s election to lose now seems like a tossup with the edge, perhaps, to Ms. Harris. The RealClearPolitics average of polls gave her a 1.4-point lead.
Emerson College Polling’s July survey showed Mr. Trump with a 4-point lead over Mr. Biden. Its August survey put Ms. Harris up by 4 points nationally. Spencer Kimball, the poll’s executive director, said that includes shifts in voters under 30, over 70 and among women. And while Black voter support didn’t change, the share saying they are motivated to vote increased, Mr. Kimball said.
Ms. Harris’ favorability ratings have also risen and are now in positive territory, according to Morning Consult’s survey work. Mr. Trump, meanwhile, is underwater.
More importantly for Ms. Harris, the trend line is good. a CBS News poll taken in mid-July, before Mr. Biden turned over the reins, had Mr. Trump leading Ms. Harris by 3 points. CBS’ poll two weeks later found her with a 1-point lead. And CBS’ latest poll on Sunday showed her up by 3 points.
CBS said the big change for Ms. Harris is a “surge in enthusiasm” from Democrats who increasingly say they’ll vote. CBS said voters are still trying to figure her out, though.
“Most voters think her views are similar — but not entirely the same — as Joe Biden’s. And she’s somewhat — but not entirely — seen as connected to Biden’s economy,” CBS said.
When looking just at battleground states, CBS said Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump were tied at 50-50.
Other surveys challenge the notion that Ms. Harris has rewritten the race.
Fox News’ polling in July gave Mr. Trump a 1-point lead over Mr. Biden, and its August poll gives him a 1-point lead over Ms. Harris.
Michael McKenna, a pollster who worked in the Trump White House, said in recent months Mr. Trump had held a persistent lead in the polls, though nearly every one of those was within the margin of error. Now, he said, “We’ve got a situation where they appear to be tied.”
“Has something changed? Yes, something’s changed. Have the fundamentals of the race changed? Not really,” he said. “We’re still in a race that’s probably going to be decided by four to five states, and 400,000 to 500,000 votes.”
Mr. McKenna, who also writes a column for The Washington Times, said the polling shift is largely a small percentage of voters who were not going to vote for Mr. Trump but were unsure whether they would turn out for Mr. Biden.
“You’re not seeing a deterioration of Trump’s numbers,” he said. “What you’re seeing is a consolidation of Democrats’ numbers.”
Ms. Harris is also helped by fawning media coverage.
“For the third week running since launching her presidential campaign, voters remained more likely to say they heard something positive (47%) than negative (33%) about Harris by a double-digit margin,” Morning Consult said. “Her net buzz rating (the share of voters who heard something positive minus the share who heard something negative) bests Trump’s rating from last week by a whopping 33 points.”
The press coverage has at times bordered on hyperventilating. Politico, for example, enticed readers of its morning email on Friday by wondering whether Ms. Harris is leading a new “movement.”
But the numbers at RealClearPolitics offer a counterpoint: At this stage of the 2020 race, Mr. Biden was up nearly 8 points over Mr. Trump in the average of polls. Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton held a nearly 7-point lead over Mr. Trump at this point in 2016.
Mr. Biden won by 4.5 points in the national vote, which translated into a 306-232 tally in the Electoral College. Mrs. Clinton topped Mr. Trump by 2.1 points in 2016 but lost the Electoral College count 304-227.
The Trump campaign also argues that some polling is overstating Ms. Harris’ position.
A spate of state surveys by The New York Times and Siena College on Saturday showed Ms. Harris taking the lead in Arizona by 4 points and North Carolina by 3 points, though still trailing by 2 points in Nevada and 7 points in Georgia.
Tony Fabrizio, the Trump campaign’s chief pollster, said the polls were skewed. When the respondents were asked whom they voted for in 2020, they backed Mr. Biden by 7 points in Arizona and 9 points in Nevada — both significantly out of whack with the actual results.
If adjusted for the actual 2020 outcome, Mr. Fabrizio said both states would show Mr. Trump leading Ms. Harris.
By contrast, the Georgia sample said it was split in 2020 — essentially the correct outcome — and that was the state poll that showed Mr. Trump with a significant lead.
• Stephen Dinan can be reached at sdinan@washingtontimes.com.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.