Wary China officially finds little to love in either U.S. presidential candidate

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China’s communist leadership expects few policy changes from either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris as U.S. president.

U.S. officials and analysts say the Chinese government insists that the November election is an internal matter for the United States and has sought to avoid showing a preference, but some suspect Beijing is quietly hoping Ms. Harris and her Democratic running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, will win. Beijing thinks they would have more favorable policies and relations with China.

Chinese government censors reportedly have blocked social media posts on the U.S. presidential race to prevent outside critics from charging election meddling.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian denied intelligence reporting that Beijing is working with agents inside the United States to influence the election outcome.

“China has never and will never interfere in the presidential elections of the U.S.,” Mr. Lin said on July 30, and charges of meddling in elections were disinformation “to vilify China.”

Another ministry spokesman, Wang Wenbin, said in March that “no matter who is elected as next president of the U.S., we hope that the U.S. can meet China halfway and advance China-U.S. relations in the stable, sound and sustainable direction.”

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence said China is approaching the presidential election more cautiously than Russia and probably does not plan to influence its outcome.

The July 9 update said Beijing sees little reward in election interference because the ruling Communist Party thinks “both political parties seek to contain China.”

China does influence the American public more broadly and is expanding data collection and social media monitoring to promote public opinion in support of Beijing’s policies, the ODNI analysts said.

An intelligence official told reporters on July 29 that U.S. spy agencies are watching for China-linked efforts “to denigrate down-ballot candidates it sees as threatening its core interests.” Beijing targeted “a handful” of such races in 2022 for Democratic and Republican candidates, the official said.

“Regardless of China’s approach to the election, PRC influence actors are using social media to sow divisions in the United States and … portray democracies as chaotic,” said the official, using the acronym for People’s Republic of China.

Diplomats at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing and all consulates in China were ordered not to discuss the election with Chinese officials because of concerns that the information could be used to interfere with the outcome.

Analysts say it is difficult to discern which candidate China prefers, and state media have produced varying indicators. The tempered posture may not last through Election Day on Nov. 5, however.

Two state-run media outlets, Global Times and China Daily, have written articles saying the presidential race will be close. They suggest that both candidates are expected to continue confrontational U.S. policies recognizing China as a strategic competitor.

“Both Trump and Biden, as well as his vice president, whom Biden earmarked to replace him in the election upon his withdrawal, seem ready to continue to blame U.S. troubles on foreign countries in a bid to divert domestic attention from the core challenges faced by the U.S.,” commentator Li Yang wrote in China Daily.

‘Bipartisan consensus’ on China

A recent journal article by three Chinese academics provides the first details on Beijing’s official view of the U.S. candidates and the election.

Wang Jisi, Hu Ran and Zhao Jianwei, all government-linked analysts at Peking University’s Institute of International and Strategic Studies, stated in a recent Foreign Affairs article that the election will not alter the “bipartisan consensus” of both major U.S. parties that casts China as a strategic competitor and adversary.

The views of the three analysts are considered to accurately reflect official Chinese thinking. The institute stated in its 2023 annual report that its core mission is “serving [China’s] national strategy.”

Whether Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris is elected, the U.S. government will maintain strategic competition and “even containment” of China while placing cooperation and exchanges at a lower priority, the authors said.

“Given the broad similarities of both the Trump and the Biden administrations’ approach to China, Beijing is preparing itself for the outcome of the U.S. elections with great caution and limited hope,” they said.

The authors stated that, in the long term, U.S.-China relations are unlikely to return to deep exchanges and cooperation like those of the early 2000s.

The article quotes Chinese President Xi Jinping as casting the United States as an enemy. Mr. Xi said in a March 2023 speech that Western states, led by the United States, implemented “all-around containment, encirclement and suppression against us, bringing unprecedented severe challenges to our country’s development.”

During his first term in office, Mr. Trump sharply changed U.S. policy toward China by declaring Beijing a strategic competitor. After trying to negotiate a new trade accord with Beijing, he imposed tariffs on Chinese goods.

During a recent interview on X, the Republican nominee repeated criticisms of China’s role in the COVID-19 pandemic but said he hopes to have a good relationship with Mr. Xi. He also said the expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal is part of a dangerous trend.

Mr. Trump said in a campaign speech that Mr. Xi wrote him “a beautiful note” after he was wounded in an assassination attempt on July 13.

Biden adopts Trump approach

President Biden maintained many of the hard-line Trump policies but launched a diplomatic offensive to resume more regular communications with China after a November summit with Mr. Xi in California.

His administration has angered the Xi government by keeping tariffs in place and imposing new restrictions on China’s purchase of advanced microchips to prevent U.S. technology from bolstering the rapidly expanding Chinese military. The Democratic administration also launched a behind-the-scenes diplomatic effort to prevent China from building a network of military bases worldwide that could be used to better project power.

Based on vice presidential statements, Ms. Harris’ views on China appear aligned with Mr. Biden’s, including the need to maintain more open lines of communication and peacefully manage competition. In September 2023, she said on CBS’s “Face the Nation” that the United States does not seek to decouple its highly integrated economy from China but to lower security risks. The approach has been dubbed ”de-risking.“

“It’s not about pulling out, but it is about ensuring that we are protecting American interests and that we are a leader in terms of the rules of the road, as opposed to following others’ rules,” she said.

On the changing environment for U.S. businesses in China, Ms. Harris said, “There is increasingly an understanding that China may not be the best bet when you are looking for stability, when you are looking for an investment in a place where there is an adherence to and respect for international rules and norms.”

Policies for a second Trump term

Mr. Trump’s plans for policies toward China have not been clearly outlined.

Matthew Pottinger, Mr. Trump’s deputy White House national security adviser, has called for moving beyond managing relations with Beijing to “winning the competition” against the world’s second emerging economic superpower.

Mr. Wang, Ms. Hu and Mr. Zhao said Mr. Biden “cemented” the adversarial policies of the Trump administration by adopting a more systematic and multilateral approach.

“Washington has also given the contest with China a new overlay of ideology — what the administration calls ‘democracy vs. autocracy’ — in an effort to build a grand alliance against Beijing,” they stated.

A military analyst said Beijing prefers Ms. Harris as president because of its perception that she would be weaker on China and thus more easily manipulated to support China’s strategic goals.

Mr. Walz is also thought to hold favorable views of the Chinese people and culture. As a teacher and tourist, Mr. Walz traveled to China 30 times on what some analysts say were Beijing-funded visits.

Mr. Walz spent a year teaching in China after the June 1989 Tiananmen massacre, when Chinese troops used force against unarmed pro-democracy demonstrators. He later said the tragedy deeply affected his opinion of the regime and the Chinese system.

The South China Morning Post has warned that a second Trump administration would revive the Justice Department’s policy of aggressively prosecuting Chinese agents, including those at universities, called the China Initiative. The Biden administration canceled the program, at least in name, because of what officials said were concerns that it unfairly targeted Asian Americans with links to Beijing.

Prosecutions of Chinese spies have continued apace. FBI Director Christopher A. Wray told Congress that the FBI investigated more than 2,000 China-related investigations in recent years.

The Trump administration sought to prosecute a high-level executive of the Chinese technology firm Huawei Technologies, Meng Wanzhou, on charges related to the company’s illegal exports to Iran. The Biden administration dropped the prosecution after Beijing warned that legal action against Ms. Meng would further undermine U.S.-China relations.

Weighing the options

Bill Bishop, author of the China affairs newsletter Sinocism, said he understood that the Chinese had been preparing to explain the official position in June. That plan was delayed after Mr. Biden withdrew from the race and Ms. Harris became the Democratic presidential candidate, he said.

The Foreign Affairs article by the three experts was produced by “relevant organs” of the government, Mr. Bishop said.

“Their main point is that they do not see too much daylight between either Trump or Harris and have no expectation that the relationship will materially improve regardless of who wins the election,” he said.

Beijing’s view is that China and the United States can maintain stable ties and “avoid catastrophe” without a rapprochement regardless of who is in the Oval Office, the three experts said.

Bradley Thayer, a conservative China analyst with the Center for Security Policy, said Beijing prefers the Democratic ticket because Ms. Harris and Mr. Walz are expected to deepen and broaden Mr. Biden’s engagement policies.

“Harris-Walz will be the most pro-PRC administration in history and so will permit the PRC to advance its interests in international politics without fear of being checked by U.S. power and the strong opposition that was evinced in the first Trump administration,” Mr. Thayer said.

Asia policy expert Gordon Chang also sees a pronounced Chinese desire for Mr. Trump to fail to secure a second term in the White House.

“Beijing has not decisively tipped its hand yet as to preference, but the clear trend of anti-Trump videos on TikTok is an early indication that this year, as in 2020, the Chinese Communists are voting blue,” Mr. Chang said. “And I am sure that the addition of Tim Walz to the Harris ticket will ensure the Democrats get Beijing’s vote.”

By contrast, a second Trump administration is expected to confront China aggressively with the strategic objective of defeating the CCP, similar to how President Reagan vanquished the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

“Two strategic paths are ahead,” Mr. Thayer said. “One path will lead to a U.S. victory over the CCP. The other invites a U.S. defeat. It will ensure that the CCP survives and thrives, to the detriment of the American people, U.S. national security interests and U.S. allies.”

The Trump administration in 2019 authorized a CIA clandestine operation to sow public opposition to the Chinese government on overseas social media, Reuters reported in March. Mr. Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, however, have said repeatedly that the United States will not seek to undermine China’s communist system, a key demand by Beijing if Washington wants better bilateral relations.

Mr. Bishop of the Sinocism blog said he doubts Mr. Walz’s experience will impact China policy if he becomes vice president in a Harris administration.

“Did anyone care what Harris’ views about China were when she ran with Biden in 2020, and does anyone think her views on China had any impact on the Biden administration’s China policies?” he said.

A likely key policy adviser to Ms. Harris as president will be Philip Gordon, her adviser on security matters.

Mr. Gordon would likely become White House national security adviser in a Harris administration. He was among 100 foreign policy experts who signed a 2019 letter declaring “China is not an enemy” and calling for more conciliatory policies toward Beijing.

“We do not believe Beijing is an economic enemy or an existential national security threat that must be confronted in every sphere; nor is China a monolith, or the views of its leaders set in stone,” the letter stated.

Mr. Bishop said he wonders whether Mr. Gordon would sign the letter today, after four years of U.S. intelligence briefings on China.

Despite China’s concerns that election intervention could produce charges of meddling, the private intelligence group Recorded Future said in a recent threat analysis that China is continuing high-volume, low-impact influence and cyber operations aimed at the election. “China will very likely conduct malign influence seeking to shape the U.S. 2024 elections,” said the report, noting that its efforts to take over Taiwan are a key factor.

The report said Beijing’s influence activities are unlikely to promote or denigrate either Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris. Instead, China is working to destabilize domestic U.S. politics and undermine Americans’ confidence in the democratic election process.

One group, identified as “Empire Dragon” by Recorded Future, has been amplifying polarizing content online related to the American presidential campaign. The issues highlighted include racial inequality and anti-Israel university protests.

The impact of the Chinese activities was assessed as “negligible” as of mid-August, based on little generated engagement despite the deployment of thousands of Chinese assets, the report said.

In July, Empire Dragon depicted both candidates as corrupt. It posted content directly targeting the election using the conviction of Mr. Biden’s son Hunter on gun charges and the 2021 Capitol riot.

The group also sought to deflect attention from the anniversary of the June 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre by attempting to flood social media with posts about the 2020 death of George Floyd while in the custody of police in Minneapolis.

• Ryan Lovelace contributed to this report.