OPINION:
Last month’s killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the Hamas leader targeted in an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps guesthouse in Tehran, has been the center of attention and could lead to a larger regional war.
This was an operation of Israel’s Mossad intelligence service using a bomb placed in the guesthouse some two months prior and detonated remotely, killing Haniyeh, who was in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian. Now, both Israel and the U.S. are on high alert for Iran’s response.
The Haniyeh killing enabled Israel to eliminate a key enemy and to collect a debt of honor from Iran for the Iranian missile and drone attack in April. Unlike the “retaliation equation” between Israel and Hezbollah, which still governs that ongoing conflict, the “humiliation equation” cannot be predicted.
Israel, Iran and the Iranian proxies, including Hezbollah, are engaged in a war of humiliation where the calculations of revenge and deterrence could lead to a regional war. Humiliation may cause the Iranians not to “think properly.” Defining the confrontation between Iran and Israel using reason needs to consider the force and effect of “the humiliation factor” — both for Iran and for Israel — that will shape Israel’s response to any Iranian attack.
Questions for Iran: How bad is the internal problem?
For Iran, a nation that prides itself on its own internal security service, this disaster raises important questions: To what extent has the IRGC been penetrated by Israel, and was this bomb a one-off, or are other bombs planted in Iran?
As Iran’s leaders plan their retaliation on Israel, they will try to answer these questions, as they will determine how Israel and possibly the U.S. respond.
This is humiliating for Iran and a huge security breach. At the IRGC, a blame game is taking over, with different sectors accusing each other of the failure. Esmail Qaani, commander of the IRGC Quds Force, has been summoning people to be fired, arrested and likely executed.
According to Mr. Qaani, “The Supreme Leader has summoned all the commanders several times over the past two days, and he wants answers. … For him, addressing the security breach is now more important than seeking revenge.” Other Iranian officials have said that dozens of IRGC officers were working for the Israelis.
Ali Younis, Iran’s former intelligence minister, expressed concern that “all the officials of the Islamic Republic should be worried about their lives.” This negligence to Mossad has allowed it to strike and threaten the Islamic Republic.” If the IRGC is infiltrated with Israeli agents, then the regime may be vulnerable to being overthrown.
Given the sensitivity of these operations, few in Israel were aware of Mossad’s efforts in Iran or a part of the decision to execute this plan. By most accounts, those involved were only Mossad Chief David Barnea, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a few of those closest to him
In the aftermath of the killings, Mr. Netanyahu has faced considerable criticism in Israel and elsewhere for at least the timing and possible adverse impact on negotiations to get the hostages back from Gaza. Some see the negotiations as having moved sideways or stalled because of Hamas. Despite pressure from the U.S., Egypt and Qatar’s efforts to reach an agreement and implement a Gaza cease-fire and hostage return appear in limbo, with Hamas refusing to attend the scheduled meetings.
Clearly, Iran has been humiliated by the Haniyeh killing and feels compelled to retaliate against Israel, either directly or through Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. When and how are still questions. How Israel would respond to any action is also in question.
World attention is focused on this as Israel prepares for the possibilities, and the U.S. has begun moving naval and air assets to the region for a possible support mission. What the U.S. might do to support Israel in the face of an Iranian or proxy attack is uncertain. The movement of another carrier strike group to the waters of Israel may be more for show than actual combat.
Since the outset of the Biden administration, U.S. policy toward Iran has been one of appeasement — ignoring sanctions and providing billions to Iran that enabled support to Hamas and Hezbollah. Under this administration, the U.S. has failed to take any direct action against Iran. At the same time, U.S. forces in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere have been the subject of many attacks by Iranian proxies.
The Iranians’ last attempt at retaliation against Israel did not go well for them. The 300 rockets and drones launched against targets in Israel were intercepted by Israel, with the help of Jordan, the United States and the United Kingdom. Iran is unlikely to try this again.
Iran will likely pressure Hezbollah in Lebanon to step up rocket attacks against Israel, using the thousands of missiles Iran has provided, although there is some indication that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is pushing back on this. The recent Hezbollah rocket strike that killed 12 children in northern Israel has already cost him his No. 2 in another killing. Israel has made clear that any significant attack would be met with a disproportionate and overwhelming response.
Henry Kissinger viewed such situations in terms of what he called “realpolitik,” and here, Iran needs to consider what it may undertake as a “restrained response” as part of that same “heroic flexibility” that it also espouses.
At the same time, there is also the additional factor that has been added to the equation — humiliation — which has been called the single most underappreciated force in international relations. Israel knows that in the face of humiliation, rational considerations tend to melt away. They have faced enemies before and are preparing to do so once again.
• Abraham Wagner has served in several national security positions, including the National Security Council staff under Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. He is the author of “Henry Kissinger: Pragmatic Statesman in Hostile Times.”
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