U.S. strategic forces prohibit the use of artificial intelligence to authorize nuclear weapons operations even though nuclear-armed adversaries China and Russia may not, the commander of Strategic Command said Tuesday.
Air Force Gen. Anthony Cotton, chief of the command based in Omaha, Nebraska, also suggested that U.S. nuclear forces may be increased to maintain deterrence against the rising nuclear threat from the country’s two “near-peer” adversaries.
In a briefing with reporters, Gen. Cotton said artificial intelligence and machine learning could give human decision-makers valuable tools for analyzing large amounts of intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance data.
Strategic Command has no plans for a real-life version of the fictional automated nuclear launch system called “war operation plan response,” or WOPR, in the futuristic 1983 movie “WarGames,” the four-star general said.
“You can actually come to Stratcom right now, and you will not see a WOPR there,” Gen. Cotton told reporters on the sidelines of the command’s annual deterrence conference.
Still, “incredible data” provided by command and control and intelligence systems can be managed by AI and then better used by military and civilian leaders to make decisions, he said.
Whether that is understood in Beijing and Moscow is another question, he said.
“When it comes to adversaries, I would hope that they understand that as well — that I don’t know that you want a WOPR to make a decision in regards on the utilization of not only nuclear weapons but even conventional weapons without having humans in the loop when it comes to that, because of not understanding what the dynamics of the decision that is made by the WOPR, if you will, does in a conflict,” Gen. Cotton said.
In June, the White House revealed that the Chinese government said it would not match a Biden administration policy of restricting the use of artificial intelligence in decisions about the use of nuclear arms. Beijing’s fast-growing nuclear arsenal has been a source of rising unease for U.S. military planners.
Tarun Chhabra, director of technology at the White House National Security Council, said China has rejected the U.S. position that autonomous systems should not be near any decision to launch a nuclear weapon.
Beijing rejected limits on AI use for its rapidly expanding nuclear forces in May during U.S.-Chinese talks in Geneva.
“We think all countries around the world should sign up to that,” Mr. Chhabra said during a think tank talk. “We think that makes a lot of sense to do.”
Artificial intelligence will be used for large-scale processing of sensor data to track mobile missiles on land and submarines at sea, especially when combined with other technology such as quantum sensors, according to testimony to a congressional China commission.
Critics argue that relying on artificial intelligence systems to make nuclear command and control decisions could destabilize the concept of deterrence by allowing the targeting of systems once considered safe from attack. The White House is said to be preparing a policy memorandum limiting the use of AI.
China’s rejection of limits on AI in nuclear weapons is raising concerns that Beijing may be considering an automated nuclear response system that could fire missiles if an enemy nuclear first strike eliminates the communist regime’s senior leaders and decision-makers.
During the Cold War, Russia developed a similar system called Dead Hand, or Perimeter. It is thought to still be in use.
The Russian system is capable of automatically launching intercontinental ballistic missiles through preexisting commands sent to missile silos if sensors detect a nuclear strike after commanders are killed or incapacitated.
China’s nuclear command and control system remains opaque, and U.S. officials say it is not clear how the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force would employ AI in a crisis. Chinese officials say that even discussing such systems with the United States would undermine nuclear deterrence.
Instead of engaging with U.S. officials on using AI in strategic weapons, Chinese officials have protested U.S. restrictions on microchips that could accelerate China’s domestic AI industry and research, based on Washington’s concerns that the technology will boost the power of the People’s Liberation Army.
Sufficient but aging
On the need for expanding U.S. nuclear forces, Gen. Cotton said current systems of land-based missiles, bombers and missile submarines are efficient, safe and credible but aging. All three elements of the nuclear triad need to be modernized, he said. The strategy is not expected to change, but the size of the force may be increased to “hold adversaries at risk.”
“So that’s where we’re looking at now, as far as ensuring that I continue to have the capacity and capability with the systems that I currently have, the legacy systems, and ensure that the modernization and that transition from legacy systems to modernized systems, that those modernized systems can still meet the objectives of the president of the United States,” Gen. Cotton said.
He said Strategic Command is analyzing the option of adding warheads to the existing force of land-based ICBMs.
Each of the 400 Minuteman III missiles currently deployed has three warheads. A new Sentinel ICBM is in development.
On the first flights by four nuclear-capable Chinese and Russian bombers into the American air defense zone near Alaska last month, Gen. Cotton said the flights were less a concern than where they originated. Public reporting said the two Russian Tu-95 and two Chinese H-6 bombers took off from a Russian strategic nuclear base in the Far East called Anadyr.
Gen. Cotton said the use of the base by Chinese bombers means “we now have to pay attention as far as access that the PRC might have because of the relationship they have with the Russian Federation.”
Gen. Cotton declined to answer a reporter’s questions about whether President Biden’s cognitive fitness poses a concern for handling any potential nuclear crisis.
“I’m not going to answer a question in regards to my relationship and what I’ve seen with my commander in chief,” he said. “I have no concerns with the current commander in chief and his abilities to give me lawful orders if required.”
Gen. Cotton said he has not seen any indications from Russia that would lead Strategic Command to alter its nuclear posture in response to the Ukrainian military incursion into Russian territory.
For U.S. nuclear strategists, China’s buildup of forces is proving particularly concerning. In February congressional testimony, Gen. Cotton called Beijing’s nuclear arsenal expansion “breathtaking.”
China’s warhead stockpile has risen from about 250 warheads to around 500 over the past several years, and the Pentagon projects Beijing is on track to reach 1,500 warheads by 2035.
China is estimated to have a total of 3,150 missiles of all ranges, most of which can be equipped with either nuclear or conventional warheads.
Beijing has refused to explain the nuclear force buildup, either publicly or with U.S. officials.
Chinese President Xi Jinping announced in 2022 that his goal is to build “a strong strategic deterrent system” that analysts say is a key element of a “trump card” in efforts to one day annex Taiwan.
• Bill Gertz can be reached at bgertz@washingtontimes.com.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.