OPINION:
Many different numbers tell a story about an administration’s economy. Inflation, unemployment, real wages, the stock market, energy prices, and energy production are typically the most significant. By any of these numerical measures, the Biden-Harris economy has been a disaster. This is especially true compared to the Trump administration.
The year-over-year inflation rate under Biden-Harris averaged 5.6% between 2021 and 2023. In 2024, inflation is “down” to the pace of another 3.2% increase this year, which is the lowest of the Biden-Harris administration. Cumulatively, prices are up more than 20% since Biden-Harris took office.
The year-over-year inflation rate under former President Donald Trump averaged just 1.9%. The highest inflation year under Mr. Trump was 2.4%, which is much lower than the lowest year under Biden-Harris. Cumulatively, prices rose less than 8% throughout the duration of the Trump administration, which is less than half the price increase of the Biden-Harris administration to date.
Under Biden-Harris, not counting the COVID-lockdown year of 2021, unemployment has averaged 3.7%, though it has risen in recent months and now stands at 4.3%.
By comparison, the Trump administration inherited an unemployment rate of 4.7% and steadily reduced it to 3.6% before the COVID-19 year of 2020. The unemployment rate is currently significantly higher than the unemployment rate the Trump administration achieved through its first three years before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Under Biden-Harris, average real wages were at $376 per week when they took office. Real wages are now sitting at only $368 per week, for a decline of 2%.
By comparison, average real wages were $349 per week when Donald Trump took office and rose to $372 per week by the time Mr. Trump left office. That is a 6.5% increase in real wages under Mr. Trump versus a 2% decline under Biden-Harris. People now work longer hours for less pay under Biden-Harris versus Mr. Trump.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average stock market was 31,619 when Biden-Harris took office. As of August 5, it closed at 38,703, an increase of 22 percent. Adjusted for inflation, the Dow’s value has remained essentially unchanged since then.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 20,433 when the Trump administration entered the White House. It was 31,619 when Trump left office, an increase of 54%. Adjusted for inflation, the comparison to Biden-Harris is even more striking, with the inflation-adjusted Dow rising approximately 50% under Mr. Trump versus remaining flat under Biden-Harris.
When Biden-Harris took office, the price of gasoline was $2.55 per gallon. It is $3.48 now, an increase of 36%.
When Trump took office, the price of gasoline was $2.34 per gallon. It ended at $2.55 per gallon, an increase of just 9%.
When Biden-Harris took office, the average retail price of electricity was 10.35 cents per kilowatt hour. It is now 12.60 cents per kilowatt hour, an increase of 21%.
The average retail price of electricity was 10.15 cents per kilowatt hour when Mr. Trump took office. The average retail price of electricity was 10.35 cents per kilowatt hour when Trump left office, for an increase of just 2%.
American oil production was 12.98 million barrels per day just before the COVID-19 lockdowns began and 11.137 million barrels per day when Biden-Harris took office. Oil production now stands at 13.178 million barrels per day, an increase of just 1% versus the Trump administration peak and 18% versus when Biden-Harris took office.
American oil production was 8.874 million barrels per day when Trump took office. Oil production rose to 12.980 million barrels per day before the COVID-19 lockdowns began, for an increase of 46%. Even in the midst of the COVID-19 lockdowns, oil production was 11.137 million barrels per day when Mr. Trump left office, an increase of 23% compared to when Mr. Trump took office.
The tale of the tape doesn’t lie. By any numerical measure, the Biden-Harris economy is a painful failure compared to the economy under Mr. Trump.
• James Taylor (JTaylor@heartland.org) is President of The Heartland Institute.
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