Trump rallies Montana Republicans with hope of flipping Senate control

BOZEMAN, Mont. — Former President Donald Trump tried to use his broad popularity in Montana to bolster Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy, telling thousands of voters to heed his rallying cry to defeat Sen. Jon Tester.

In a race that could decide the balance of power in the Senate, Mr. Tester is vulnerable as the lone statewide elected Democrat in a state that has morphed from purple to deep-red in recent years. He is also running for the first time against a ticket that features Mr. Trump, who has consistently dominated elections in Montana.

Mr. Trump’s support could energize the Republican Party base to turn out to vote for Mr. Sheehy and propel the political newcomer to victory.

Though the former president spent much of Friday’s rally in Bozeman lambasting Vice President Kamala Harris, he said Mr. Sheehy is the man to topple Mr. Tester.

“This is the answer right here: We do this seat, and we’re going to win the Senate,” Mr. Trump said to the packed audience at the nearly 8,500-seat Brick Breeden Fieldhouse.

He accused Mr. Tester of being one of the “biggest phonies in American politics,” particularly for voting against many of the former president’s border and energy policies and largely backing the Biden administration’s agenda.

Democrats hold a 51-49 edge in the Senate, but Republicans are defending only 11 seats and none is considered highly vulnerable by political handicappers. With West Virginia widely expected to elect a Republican to the Senate in November, the party likely needs to flip only one other seat to control the chamber, regardless of who wins the presidency.

The race between Mr. Tester, a three-term incumbent, and Mr. Sheehy gives the Republican Party one of its best chances for that second pickup.

Although the latest poll shows Mr. Sheehy with a 2-percentage-point advantage against Mr. Tester, that is less than the Emerson/The Hill survey’s error margin, resulting in a statistical tie.

Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, chairman of the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, persuaded Mr. Trump to go to Montana to support Mr. Sheehy. He explained the importance of gaining control of the Senate: Every presidential nomination must be approved by the upper chamber.

Mr. Daines told The Times that he is used to running big races in Montana. He touts his victory against popular Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock in 2020 and sees parallels between that race and the showdown between Mr. Tester and Mr. Sheehy.

“I beat Steve Bullock here, and by the way, my polling numbers right now against Steve look exactly the same as where they are with Tim Sheehy,” he said. “I know how to read polling numbers. I’ll just tell you, I like where Tim Sheehy is at this moment.”

Mr. Tester is a hard foe to fell, having won three contests in the state. He is wildly popular with the state’s veterans and has secured more votes from rural communities than other Montana Democrats.

He has also consistently been able to persuade Republican-leaning voters to split their tickets and support him.

That same strategy is at play in his contest against Mr. Sheehy.

His campaign recently launched “Republicans for Tester,” which features major Republican players in Montana who are largely disillusioned with the direction of the Republican Party and are vouching for the lawmaker in a bid to paint him as one of the most bipartisan senators in Washington.

Mick Ringsak, one of 16 co-chairs of the “Republicans for Tester” campaign, was appointed by the Bush administration to be the Small Business Administration’s chief in the Montana region and has been involved in Republican politics in the Mountain West since he was a teenager.

Mr. Ringsak called foul on Republican attempts to portray Mr. Tester as a far-left radical and noted that he was one of the few Democratic senators who worked with Republicans during the Trump administration.

He touched on the shifting dynamic in Montana politics. Wealthy, conservative outsiders have moved to the state and sought elected office, he said, noting Gov. Greg Gianforte, who is from New Jersey, and Rep. Matt Rosendale, who is from Maryland.

Mr. Sheehy is a native of Minnesota who arrived in Montana a decade ago. He launched Bridger Aerospace, a multimillion-dollar aerial firefighting company, before mounting a run against Mr. Tester.

“None of them represent the Montana I know … and they’re trying to change it and make it a playground for the rich,” Mr. Ringsak told The Washington Times. “I think people realize that, and Jon’s one of the things that will prevent that from happening.”

Mr. Daines and the National Republican Senatorial Committee are banking on newcomers to Montana to support Mr. Sheehy and to bridge the small gap by which Mr. Tester has won his three terms. The lawmaker said that of the 100,000 people who have moved to the state since Mr. Tester’s last race in 2018, most skewed Republican.

That dynamic and Mr. Trump’s backing are two major factors that Republicans hope will put Mr. Sheehy over the edge. They also believe his bona fides as a Navy SEAL could siphon support away from the veteran bloc that typically supports Mr. Tester.

Rep. Ryan Zinke, Montana Republican, told The Times that long-term Montana residents, not newcomers, will be energized by Mr. Trump and Mr. Sheehy and dissatisfied with Mr. Tester.

“It’s not new people are coming to Montana that are going to decide: it’s Montana,” Mr. Zinke said.

“Montana, I think, wants truthfulness. And they want to hear the good news as well as the bad news. And Montana does not like the direction that this administration has gone.”

Mr. Zinke noted that Mr. Tester’s voting record isn’t nearly as bipartisan as those of two other moderate Democrats who eventually left the party over its direction under the Biden administration.

“Jon Tester cannot hide the fact that he could have been a [Sen. Joe] Manchin, he could have been a [Sen. Kyrsten] Sinema,” he said.

Jeremy Johnson, who chairs the Political Science Department at Carroll College in Helena, noted that the race between Mr. Tester and Mr. Sheehy had similar traits to the incumbent’s previous races.

The Tester campaign will often try to sow doubts about the Republican candidate, such as calling Mr. Sheehy “Shady Sheehy,” and present Mr. Tester as more of a moderate who can work with both sides of the aisle, he said.

Conversely, he said, Republicans often try to portray Mr. Tester as a liberal who constantly toes the party line.

Mr. Johnson noted that voters in Montana are often not swayed by national storylines and political messaging, which Mr. Tester has sought to keep at arm’s length despite Republicans’ efforts to use them as a cudgel against him.

“People are already like, it’s like baked in the cake,” he told The Times. “People already have their views. It doesn’t really matter all that much what the news is, no matter what it is.”

Outside Mr. Trump’s rally for Mr. Sheehy, conservative voters told The Times that they had some issues with the Republican candidate but Mr. Tester needed to go.

“It’s like anybody but Tester,” said Doug Gagner, a voter from Shelby, Montana. “He lost sight of Montana probably three elections ago.”

Others raised concerns that the influx of voters, especially those from liberal-leaning states such as California, are conservatives but may end up supporting Mr. Tester because they see Mr. Sheehy as having tied himself too closely to Mr. Trump.

Some saw issues with Mr. Sheehy’s embroilment in recent controversies surrounding his company.

Taunya Fagan, a real estate broker in Bozeman, said that while she appreciated Mr. Sheehy’s military service and promises of support for veterans, she was concerned about a recent lawsuit filed by two former employees of Bridger Aerospace who claimed that its former parent company breached contract involving stock option compensation.

Mr. Sheehy resigned as CEO of his company last month after the lawsuit.

“I don’t know the details behind it, and I just want to know the details, that’s all,” she said. “I think that’s fair to ask.”