The dramatic change at the top of the Democratic ticket and Vice President Kamala Harris’s surge in battleground states haven’t changed the hard slog in Montana for the party’s most vulnerable Senate incumbent.
Sen. Jon Tester, who is locked in a dead heat against Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, told The Washington Times that it did not matter who tops the Democratic ticket in solidly red Montana, he still has his “own race to run.”
Among the handful of pivotal Senate contests this November, the Montana race is the key to control of the upper chamber, and both sides are going all out to secure a victory in the tightly contested battle.
Mr. Tester, a three-term incumbent, is up against Mr. Sheehy, a former U.S. Navy SEAL and aerospace millionaire hand-picked by the GOP to take him down.
Turmoil and upheaval have rocked the Democratic party for the last month following President Biden’s dismal debate performance culminating in him dropping out of the race and Ms. Harris moving in to fill the void.
Ms. Harris’ ascension has Republicans still painting him as voting in lock-step with the Biden-Harris agenda but now calling him out for not endorsing the vice president — who is now the Democrats’ presumptive presidential nominee.
“I always say this, and this is true: They try to make me something I’m not so they can run against that person, and that is exactly what they’ve done this cycle,” he said.
For much of the race, Mr. Tester has held an edge in polling and fundraising. He raised $6.4 million between May 16 and July 1, according to Federal Election Commission records, while Mr. Sheehy raised $3.1 million during the same period.
Mr. Tester has vastly outspent his rival to the tune of $33.9 million to Mr. Sheehy’s $10.4 million.
Still, polling shows Mr. Sheehy gained ground on Mr. Tester.
Sen. Steve Daines, who chairs the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, the National Republican Senatorial Committee, recently told reporters that it was “remarkable” that despite the millions Mr. Tester poured into the race, Mr. Sheehy was “tied up” with the incumbent.
Montana has shifted from a purple to deep red in recent years, a change that has seen Republicans controlling all of state government and every statewide office except for the Senate seat occupied by Mr. Tester.
Former President Donald Trump dominated the last two presidential contests in the state, winning in 2016 by over 20 points and in 2020 by nearly 17 points.
Mr. Tester’s lone race where he shared a presidential ticket was in 2012 when Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney beat President Obama in Montana by nearly 14 points. Mr. Tester scored 34,000 more votes than Mr. Obama in 2012, beating his opponent by just over 4 points.
Mr. Trump is slated to hold a rally in Bozeman, Montana, on Aug. 9 in support of Mr. Sheehy. During the 2018 cycle, the former president visited Montana four times to boost the GOP candidate Rep. Matt Rosendale, who lost to Mr. Tester by nearly 4 points.
“We’re so happy to welcome President Trump back to Montana once again,” Mr. Sheehy said in a video posted to X. “He’s here to campaign alongside us. We’re grateful for that because he knows how important it is we flip this seat so we can put the America First agenda back in the fast track, get this country fixed, and save America.”
Meanwhile, Democrats are banking on Mr. Tester’s popularity and reputation as a Montana individualist who defies party labels.
“Jon Tester is no stranger to tough races,” said Monica Robinson, a spokesperson for Mr. Tester’s campaign. “He’s won three in a row because he has a strong coalition of support across the state, including independent voters and Republicans, and he relentlessly defends Montana every day.”
But in the six years since his last campaign, Montana has seen a dramatic influx of newcomers to the state. Mr. Daines said that the people moving in from blue states could turn the tide in favor of Mr. Sheehy.
“Montana has seen a surge in center-right voters who are fleeing liberal states like California, Oregon and Washington because of the exact policies supported by San Francisco radical Kamala Harris,” he said in a statement to The Times.
Mr. Sheehy is also a relative newcomer to Montana. He moved to the state in 2014 and has since founded the aerial firefighting company Bridger Aerospace.
Mr. Tester has made Mr. Sheehy’s out-of-state roots a building block of his attacks, tying him to a trend of Republicans that have come from elsewhere, including Gov. Greg Gianforte who is from New Jersey and Mr. Rosendale who is from Maryland.
“If you’re not from here, Jon Tester doesn’t think your voice matters, apparently,” Mr. Sheehy said during a debate with Mr. Tester in June. “Creating jobs in this state was an honor for me to do.”
• Alex Miller can be reached at amiller@washingtontimes.com.
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