OPINION:
Minority voters are shifting from the Democratic Party, and a realignment around blue-collar, populist values will have important consequences for economic policy.
Comparing Associated Press 2020 election exit polls and recent national polls, President Biden’s lead over former President Donald Trump has increased slightly among White voters — mostly those with a college education.
Among Blacks and Hispanics, who are decidedly more blue-collar, Mr. Biden has lost considerable ground.
Examining voting patterns from the 2012, 2016, 2022, and 2020 presidential and 2020 congressional elections, this erosion in Democratic support includes Asians, too.
In Starr County, Texas, in the Rio Grande Valley, which is 98% Hispanic, Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar was reelected by 13 percentage points in 2022. His margins were 19 points in 2020 and 35 points in 2016.
Progressives argue that Democrats are not delivering aggressively enough on their agenda — affirmative action, federally financed child care and the like. But many of their ideas do not reflect minority voters’ values.
Only about 30% of Blacks and Hispanics identify as liberal, whereas 70% of those groups identify as conservative or moderate. Many are attracted to populist ideas — protectionism and skepticism toward elites, affirmative action, open immigration and political correctness.
Presidents John F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson conceived affirmative action to lift those who were disadvantaged by the legacy of slavery and segregation.
The country was about 95% White or Black and 5% Asian or Hispanic. As the population changed, progressive intellectuals increasingly applied the term “people of color.”
Critical race theory and “wokeism” emerged, which posit that White culture exhibits enduring prejudices against non-Whites that must be corrected by reassessing the nation’s early history, rewriting school curriculums, and instituting aggressive diversity, equity and inclusion programs in the workplace.
For Hispanics and Asians, those views are inconsistent with their progress.
Immigrant families have experienced considerable intergenerational upward mobility. The average family incomes of Hispanics now exceed those of Blacks by 19%, and Asians exceed those of Whites by 34%.
According to the Pew Trust, most Blacks and Hispanics oppose considering race and ethnicity in hiring and promotions.
Yet Biden administration infrastructure, industrial, immigration and other economic policies are keenly attentive to the hard left’s social justice agenda.
Unsurprisingly, despite robust growth, low unemployment and falling inflation, 55% of non-White registered voters disapprove of Mr. Biden’s handling of the economy. Among Whites who did not go to college, the figure rises to 74% for men and 71% for women.
And 59% of non-Whites disapprove of his handling of immigration.
Pulling all of this together, it is important to remember that more than half of voters do not have a college degree.
Neither Mr. Trump nor Mr. Biden advocates cutting the social safety net, which greatly assists working-class Americans, and neither man advocates higher taxes for lower- and middle-class families.
It’s unlikely that Democrats will win simultaneous control of the Senate, House and Oval Office anytime soon, so taxing the rich, while it may be good campaign fodder, is only a fanciful idea.
Affirmative action and DEI enforcement in the workplace, at least as it applies to race and ethnicity, will remain under assault. It doesn’t enjoy the support of many it is supposed to most benefit.
With an aging population and growing national security threats, projections that the budget deficit will reach more than 6% of gross domestic product in 2025 are optimistic. It may get much worse.
Either the Federal Reserve permits interest rates to rise to ration savings in favor of government spending — and crowds out money for investments in artificial intelligence, manufacturing and medical science — or it will print more money. The latter would create more inflation.
China appears intent on subsidizing exports of electric vehicles, batteries, and anything else it can to ameliorate the domestic malaise created by its property sector meltdown. Mr. Trump may be more vocal about raising tariffs, but Mr. Biden will feel pressure to act, too.
Immigration policy will be tightened in one way or another, but how we retreat from globalization will significantly affect living standards.
Indiscriminate industrial policies — for example, excessive subsidies for the automotive industry and other fields — and tariffs would breed inefficient production and technologically lagging products in the U.S. compared with China and elsewhere in Asia.
Immigration is importantly adding to skills in the American workforce and creating opportunities even for those who see newcomers as competition. If we slam the door too tight, it becomes another limiting wall, just like a Trumpian 60% tariff on China and an across-the-board 10% levy.
Progressives have been operating on the notion that non-Whites — regardless of their origin or experiences in this country — can be organized under the awning of identity politics.
That’s understandable. Their brain thrust at universities and think tanks profit from excluding White men — Jim Crow turned on its head.
That leaves an open door for some of the worst populist impulses.
• Peter Morici is an economist and emeritus business professor at the University of Maryland, and a national columnist.
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