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“Pragmatic.”
That’s how election analysts describe former President Donald Trump’s decision Monday against campaigning for a federal abortion ban and supporting the status quo of leaving the matter up to the states, now that the Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade.
Democrats are hoping to make abortion a pivotal issue against the Republicans’ prohibitive presidential nominee, especially in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and other swing states. They also believe it will sway key congressional races.
But Mr. Trump’s moderate stance, announced on his social media site Monday, could dampen abortion’s influence at the ballot box, where it shook up the 2022 midterm elections and pushed Democrats to victory in battleground races.
“It’s a mainstream and centrist position,” one pollster familiar with the thinking told The Washington Times. “He’s saying let the people and the voters decide.”
SEE ALSO: Trump defends new abortion stance in the face of sharp criticism from conservatives
Mr. Trump recently signaled he was ready to endorse a 15-week limit on abortion, but ultimately decided not to get behind any federal involvement.
In a four-minute address posted to Truth Social, the former president positioned himself and the Republican Party as pro-family and touted his role in helping to overturn the Roe decision, which he said took abortion limits “out of federal hands and brought it into the hearts, minds and vote of the people in each state.”
Aligning himself with President Reagan on the issue, Mr. Trump said he is strongly in favor of exceptions for rape, incest and the woman’s life, and delivered the message, indirectly, that his position is the most politically feasible.
“You must follow your heart on this issue but remember, you must also win elections to restore our culture and in fact, to save our country which is currently and very sadly, a nation in decline,” Mr. Trump said.
Mr. Trump’s statement comes nearly two years after a leaked Supreme Court draft decision signaled Roe would be overturned. The Dobbs ruling ended the federal right to abortion and sent the matter back to the states, where a number of conservative legislatures and governors immediately began imposing stricter limits.
Mr. Trump, in his statement, did not embrace those stricter abortion limits, or any federal involvement at all on the issue. He rejected the position of pro-life activists and others in his own party who want Congress to limit abortion nationally.
While his decision could hurt him with some of the nation’s most pro-life voters, it could help pave his path to a second term by making it harder for Mr. Biden to defeat him in key swing states where abortion is a top issue, among them Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
In Pennsylvania, abortion was a powerful motivator in the 2022 midterms, which were held a few months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe.
It helped elect Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro and Sen. John Fetterman that year, pollsters say, and Mr. Trump’s more moderate stance could dampen enthusiasm for Democrats this year.
Democrats plan on wielding the issue again to motivate their base in November, but Mr. Trump’s statement may make it a less effective tool.
“His message, if he continues with it, would sort of neutralize it,” said Berwood Yost, director of the Franklin and Marshall College Poll.
The election in Pennsylvania is expected to be extremely close. Mr. Trump won the state in 2016 and lost to Mr. Biden in 2020 by a margin of roughly 1%, or 80,000 votes.
Franklin and Marshall, based in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, released a poll last week showing Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump by 10 points in the state, while several other recent polls show the two tied or statistically tied in Pennsylvania.
In the Franklin and Marshall poll, 35% of Pennsylvania voters said abortion should be legal under any circumstances, while 54% said the procedure should be legal under certain circumstances.
More Pennsylvania voters (48%) said Mr. Biden aligned with them on abortion than Mr. Trump (35%) in the April poll.
Mr. Trump probably won’t close the gap entirely with Mr. Biden on abortion in Pennsylvania, but analysts say his endorsement of the status quo blunts some of the damage Democrats can do, particularly in swing states.
“It’s probably the safest position he could take for the general election,” said polling analyst Ron Faucheux. “It’s the path of least political resistance.”
Democrats signaled Monday they will continue to batter the GOP with the abortion issue in battleground states.
Mr. Biden said Mr. Trump is “scrambling.”
“He’s worried that since he’s the one responsible for overturning Roe the voters will hold him accountable in 2024,” the president said in a campaign statement. “Well, I have news for Donald. They will.”
In Michigan, Democrats framed Mr. Trump’s position as one that “re-ups his endorsement for state abortion bans,” and pointed to down-ballot Republican congressional candidates who back stricter limits who might send a national ban to Mr. Trump’s desk if he wins the White House.
Mr. Biden’s campaign team, in a press call, told reporters “it is a certainty” that Mr. Trump would sign a Republican bill to ban abortion nationally, as well as other measures that would threaten access to contraception and the use of IVF.
“The only thing standing between Americans and this vision being our country’s reality is Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in the White House,” said Biden-Harris 2024 campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez.
Mr. Trump has been edging toward his more moderate position for months. He blamed the party’s underperformance in the 2022 midterms on Republicans, whom he said mishandled the abortion issue by going too far on limiting the procedure and refusing to support exceptions, even if the woman’s life is threatened.
In September, he called Florida’s law banning abortions after six weeks of pregnancy “a terrible mistake,” in a dig against his then-GOP opponent, Gov. Ron DeSantis.
In Iowa, Mr. Trump’s creeping moderation was put to the test with one of the nation’s most evangelical voting blocs. He won the Iowa primary by a landslide, although a small group of core evangelicals rejected him.
“A second-trimester national law would still allow 94-95% of all abortions,” said Matt Wells, an Iowa evangelical and Trump opponent. “By leaving it to the states, he doesn’t risk the blowback. This doesn’t help him with anyone. This leaves you where you were at before the statement.”
Pro-life groups had urged Mr. Trump to take a strong stand on federal limits.
“We are deeply disappointed in President Trump’s position. Unborn children and their mothers deserve national protections and national advocacy from the brutality of the abortion industry,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. “Saying the issue is ’back to the states’ cedes the national debate to the Democrats who are working relentlessly to enact legislation mandating abortion throughout all nine months of pregnancy. If successful, they will wipe out states’ rights.”
At the same time, Ms. Dannenfelser said her group will “work tirelessly to defeat President Biden and extreme congressional Democrats.”
• Tom Howell Jr. contributed to this story.
• Susan Ferrechio can be reached at sferrechio@washingtontimes.com.
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