South Koreans head to the polls: President faces midterm judgment

A version of this story appeared in the daily Threat Status newsletter from The Washington Times. Click here to receive Threat Status delivered directly to your inbox each weekday.

SEOUL, South Korea — Wednesday’s National Assembly elections in South Korea are not just a fight for control of the chamber, but they are also a referendum on conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Adding spice, a vicious political fight is being reignited as a former foe returns to the arena against Mr. Yoon. This new third force, combined with the president’s dire approval ratings, may spell grim news for his machine, the People Power Party and for his remaining three years in power.

The PPP is already a minority in the unicameral, 300-seat National Assembly, occupying 114 seats while the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea holds 156. Analysts expect the PPP’s seats to be further reduced for the next four years after the April 10 results come in.

While that day’s vote is for lawmakers, not policymakers, the results will be closely watched in China and North Korea, as well as Japan and the U.S.

Mr. Yoon has dismayed both Beijing and Pyongyang by seeking to improve relations with fellow U.S. ally Japan — long a difficult political sell for most Koreans with memories of Tokyo’s 1910-1945 colonial rule of the peninsula. Mr. Yoon’s bold and unusual policy fueled long-held hopes in Washington for tightened trilateral strategic cooperation with its two allies in Northeast Asia.

Voter interest appears to be intense: Election officials said Sunday that early voting levels set a record on both Friday and Saturday. Already, more than 30% of South Koreans have opted for early balloting, the first time that mark has been reach since South Korea introduced the system a decade ago.

Regardless of the new Assembly’s composition, Mr. Yoon, whose single, five-year term commenced in May 2022, retains ultimate control over foreign, defense and North Korean policies — at least on paper.

But in practical terms, he could face weightier shackles on his freedom of action, given that the Assembly controls appropriations. Opposition lawmakers could also nix potential legislation aimed at formalizing the still-fragile partnership with Japan, while U.S. policymakers will have to consider its own relations with the opposition DPK.

‘Judgment day’ looms for Yoon

Wednesday is “’judgment day’ for the incumbent,” Heo Jin-jae, research director at pollster Gallup Korea, told foreign reporters in Seoul last week.

A report on the upcoming election by D&A Advisory, a U.S.-based Korean risk advisory firm, concurs. The PPP faces lost seats due to “the majority of the population’s dissatisfaction with the Yoon administration, rather than support of the opposition’s policies,” the analysis said.

The report, authored by a team led by ex-intelligence analyst Stephen Kinker, continued; “Policies have become less important in voters’ minds for this election, and the opposition has been framing this event as an opportunity to put Yoon’s administration on trial.”

The president, a prosecutor who had never held elective office before, has suffered perennially low approval ratings. Gallup data shows his “favorable” ratings only exceeded 50% in the first month of his presidency. Since then, they have ranged from 26% to 37% and currently sit at 34% approval.

Despite this, Mr. Yoon’s PPP has been polling very slightly higher than the DPK: 36% approval ratings vs. 31%, in March in a survey last month. The DPK has been weakened by high-profile defections of figures dissatisfied with party head Lee Jae-myung. Mr. Lee, a leftist firebrand, inspires strong passions both for and against his leadership.

But a wild card reemerged last month. On March 3, Cho Kuk, a foe from Mr. Yoon’s past, rose from his political grave with a new machine, the Rebuild Korea Party.

“A lot of those who supported the PPP saw [the political landscape] as a dichotomy between Hong Dong-hoon and Lee Jae-myung,” said Mr. Heo, referring to the two big party heads. “This advent of Cho Kuk and the RKP has really changed the game.” 

Neither Mr. Yoon nor Mr. Lee were especially popular in the 2022 presidential elections, but voters had no real choice beyond the major parties. They do now.

Mr. Cho and Mr. Yoon have a history. In 2019 Mr. Cho was appointed justice minster by then-President Moon Jae-in, who sought to reform the state prosecution. The appointment sparked a battle between Mr. Cho and then-chief prosecutor, Mr. Yoon, who received a major boost to his political profile by defeating Mr. Cho, who exited his position in disgrace amid allegations of family corruption.

Mr. Yoon was immediately courted by conservatives leaders, entered politics with the PPP, and won the 2022 presidential election — albeit with a victory margin of less than 1%.

Mr. Cho — a suave, former academic with a gift for public communication — represents for many a less extreme, more middle-class leftism than the DPK’s old-school boss, Mr. Lee.

In past elections, no “third force” has challenged the two main parties’ control. However, alternative parties have won 21.4%, 15.1%, 19.2% and 16.5% of the votes, Gallup numbers showed.

That is important. Many South Koreans vote predictably along regional, age and gender lines to the point where Mr. Heo broadly reckons the electorate is split between 40% conservatives and 40% liberals. That, however, leave 20% who are moderate, floating voters — and Mr. Cho may win them over.

Despite its late entry into the campaign, “The RKP has attracted a significant portion of undecided voters, as well as disenchanted [DPK] supporters, who have pledged to vote for [DPK] candidates in their constituencies and the RKP in the proportional representation race,” D&A Advisory wrote. 

Even if the RKP draws votes from the DPK, Mr. Cho has said he will vote with the DPK against Mr. Yoon’s PPP in the Assembly.

Regional stakes

Mr. Yoon has concentrated his energies on foreign policy, bolstering Seoul’s relations with Washington and with U.S. allies around the region.

He has won praise from the Biden administration with his unprecedented courtship of Japan. He has talked up the value of freedom and democracy and sided with the Philippines and Taiwan in their disputes with China.

This is unusual.

“In South Korea, right-left and conservative-liberal, mean something different than they do in the U.S. context,” said Mike Breen, author of “The New Koreans.” “Yoon has come out and said, ‘We are very democratic and stand side-by-side with other democracies.’ In the Korean context, that is quite radical.”

Mr. Lee, although on the left, is arguably more conservative than the rightist Mr. Yoon, Mr. Breen said. While the former’s policies are rooted in old-school nationalism, the latter’s are based on ideals.

That applies to South Korea’s stances toward both Tokyo and Pyongyang. The prior Moon government degraded relations with Tokyo, engaged Pyongyang and sought to negotiate a treaty that would officially end the Korean War 70 years after the fighting ended.

Mr. Yoon, by contrast, has reached out to Japan and adopted a hard line toward the North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s regime. The Yoon government has adopted a muscular defense posture and tough rhetoric toward Pyongyang, while showing zero interest in a peace treaty.

But many in South Korea say Mr. Yoon has concentrated on foreign affairs due to the weaknesses of his domestic political agenda. His image has suffered from perceived stubbornness, bad appointments, poor communication and even an unpopular wife.

That could matter, as electoral issues, particularly for the national legislature, are predictably local. “The economy is stagnant and people are struggling with livelihoods,” said Mr. Heo. “It’s a gloomy situation.”

North Korea has conducted a string of provocative weapons tests and the Kim regime regularly issues menacing statements targeting Seoul, but that appears to barely register in the current campaign.

“We are quite used to the threat,” Mr. Heo said. “Even if North Korea fired a missile tomorrow, we are relatively numb to these provocations.” 

If his PPP loses badly, Mr. Yoon could become a “lame duck” — South Koreans have adopted the American expression for late-term presidents — even in foreign policy.

Choi Jong-kun, a deputy foreign minister under the Moon administration, said that regardless of presidential ministerial control, foreign policy will be subject to Assembly oversight.

“We have a presidential system, but at the same time, a semi-parliamentary system as each minister or vice minister is required to be present at parliamentary sessions, and each standing committee is accountable to answering questions, and has to deal with the opposition,” he said.

During his tenure as vice minister, Mr. Choi estimated he spent 60% of his time dealing with Assembly matters.

A newly empowered, opposition-controlled Assembly could enact “budget constraints on foreign policy,” question aid to Ukraine, including South Korean ammunition sent via Washington, and demand a defense spending review, he suggested.

Moreover, further moves by Mr. Yoon to strengthen relations with Japan, such as legislative initiatives to end a protracted dispute over wartime forced-labor compensation, would be stonewalled, he said.

The DPK’s Mr. Lee has made clear his lack of interest in assisting Ukraine, speaking out against China or upgrading Japan ties.

Mr. Yoon’s excellent relationships with the U.S. could also be damaged.

“You will have a different landscape of public diplomacy from Washington’s perspective,” Mr. Choi said. “I think the DPK will receive more policy attention from Washington than before.”

Mr. Yoon could become personally vulnerable.

“All that is needed is for something to go wrong, and the opposition could easily find serious calls in the Assembly for impeachment,” Mr. Breen said.