New poll shows Rep. Jamaal Bowman trailing primary opponent by 17 points

A new poll shows “Squad” member Rep. Jamaal Bowman struggling in his reelection bid for a third term.

Mr. Bowman, New York Democrat, trails Westchester County Executive George Latimer by 17 percentage points, according to a survey conducted by veteran Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. Thirteen percent are undecided.

Mr. Mellman is president of the pro-Latimer Democratic Majority for Israel, a political action committee.

Mr. Latimer’s lead expands to 21 percentage points, 56% to 35%, among Democrats who voted in at least three of the four most recent primaries.

Among Democrats who say they know both Mr. Bowman and Mr. Latimer, which is 76% of the district, Mr. Latimer’s lead increases 26 percentage points, 60% to 34%.

Mr. Latimer, a veteran legislator since the 1980s, is well-known in Westchester. Sixty-eight percent of Democrats in the district view his job in office positively, while only 18% view it negatively.

However, 36% of Democrats in the district view Mr. Bowman positively, while 55% hold a negative view of his job performance in Washington.

“This represents a dramatic deterioration in Bowman’s image. Since July of 2022, Bowman’s positive job ratings dropped by 14 points in a mostly overlapping district, while his negative ratings rose by a whopping 27 points,” Mr. Mellman said.

“The disappointment with Bowman is palpable, as are the plaudits Latimer has earned.”

The poll, which was conducted March 26-30, is based on the findings of a survey of 400 voters in New York’s 16th Congressional District representing the likely June 2024 Democratic primary electorate.

The survey uses a registration-based sample, with interviews conducted via landline, cell, and text-to-online. The margin of error for the sample as a whole is +/- 4.9% at the 95% level of confidence.

The Bowman campaign trashed the poll and accused Mr. Mellman of having no credibility.

“Mark Mellman not only had incorrect polls on this race in 2020, the candidate Mellman supported had to tell him to stop airing racist ads that darkened Rep. Bowman’s face,” campaign spokesman Bill Neidhardt told The New York Post. “He doesn’t have an ounce of credibility here, and his junk numbers back that up.”

Mr. Mellman spent over $1 million in ads boosting former Rep. Eliot Engel, the veteran Democratic lawmaker whom Mr. Bowman defeated in 2020.

Mr. Bowman, 48, is expected to face Mr. Latimer, 70, in the primary for the 16th Congressional District, which covers parts of Westchester and the Bronx, on June 25.

The Latimer camp told The Washington Times their campaign is grassroots and powered by the people of the Bronx and Westchester.

“The work is just starting because we understand that the poll that matters is on Election Day,” a campaign spokesperson said. “We keep gaining momentum because we’re talking about delivering real results, not rhetoric.”

Mr. Bowman is not the only Squad member trailing his most formidable primary opponent by double digits. According to a recent poll, Rep. Cori Bush of Missouri is 22 points behind St. Louis prosecutor Wesley Bell.

The New York Democrat is among several progressive members who are being targeted during this primary cycle by pro-Israel advocacy groups for his policy stances related to the foreign nation.

Mr. Bowman is known for loud political theatrics off the House floor and found himself in hot water when he pulled a fire alarm in the U.S. Capitol complex while the House was in session.

Mr. Bowman pleaded guilty in October to a misdemeanor, and agreed to pay a $1,000 fine and serve three months of probation.

His opponents have also criticized him for remarks deemed antisemitic.

A TikTok post showed him in November with pro-Palestinian demonstrators in New York saying, “There was propaganda used in the beginning of the siege.”

“There’s still no evidence of beheaded babies or raped women. But they still keep using that lie [for] propaganda,” he said.

Days earlier, he and other lawmakers were offered a Nov. 14 screening of the Hamas attack.

Mr. Bowman later walked back his comments. He said that the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas was a “war crime” and called for Hamas to release hostages held in the Gaza Strip.

“The U.N. confirmed that Hamas committed rape and sexual violence, a reprehensible fact that I condemn entirely,” he said.