OPINION:
Thanks to President Biden’s pressure on Israel, our principal ally in the Middle East is delaying actions in the Gaza Strip to finish off Hamas terrorists and responding to Iran’s direct attack.
On April 13, for the first time, Iran directly attacked Israel with about 300 drones as well as cruise and ballistic missiles launched from Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. More than 90% of them were shot down by Israeli, U.S., U.K., French (!) and Jordanian air defenses, many before they reached Israeli territory. Saudi Arabian forces reportedly shot down some of the drones or missiles coming from Yemen.
We are thus directly involved in the conflict.
The attack was Iran’s response to the April 1 strike on an Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria, which killed at least one top Iranian general from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and others. Iran blames Israel for that attack.
The Iranian attack failed, but it was a unique escalation. Iran had never before attacked Israel directly; instead, it has used its proxy forces such as Hezbollah, Hamas, or the Houthis in Yemen.
A day before the attack, Mr. Biden warned Iran not to attack Israel. Being irrelevant to Iran’s decisions, his statement was ignored.
Iran reportedly gave the Turkish, Iraqi and Jordanian governments three days’ warning of the attack, which the Biden administration insists it didn’t receive. That warning, however, could be the reason that U.S., U.K. and Jordanian forces had been able to agree to help Israel shoot down the drones and missiles.
Mr. Biden’s reaction to the attack was precisely wrong. He told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to respond militarily to the Iranian attack for fear of more “escalation.” Mr. Biden wants Israel’s response to be purely diplomatic.
In that, Mr. Biden’s position was exactly that of Iran. Maj. Gen. Mohammad Baghieri said that Iran “has achieved all its goals, and in our view, the operation has ended, and we do not intend to continue.” Iran has also threatened that it will, upon the slightest provocation, respond with weapons it has never used before.
The ineffectiveness of Iran’s April 13 attack was a huge embarrassment to Iran. Iran continues its belligerent statements because it wants to deter Israel from responding to that attack.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reportedly told Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that Israel has no choice but to respond militarily to the Iranian attack. Mr. Gallant is precisely correct.
Mr. Biden should, but won’t, reinstitute former President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign of economic sanctions against Iran. He’s too busy appeasing Iran with ransom payments and sanctions waivers. His latest sanctions effort will not affect Iran one bit.
We should not credit Iran with too much subtlety in its attack, but its three-day warning is enormously important. It shows that Iran wants to avoid open war with Israel (and the U.S.). Iran didn’t know how effective Israel’s defensive systems would be or that we and some allies would help shoot their missiles and drones down.
Israel must respond, but it must also carefully calculate how to do so. In this case, proportionality will be the key.
If Israel wanted to ignore proportionality, it could try to kill Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, or bomb the IRGC headquarters or even Iran’s parliament. But Israel won’t. When it responds — not if — it will choose one or more targets that will hurt Iran but not try to kill its leaders.
Those targets abound. Iran’s navy has ships in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. An Israeli cyberattack could cripple Iran, and its oil export facilities — especially its main facility on Kharg Island — are all vulnerabilities.
Destroying all or part of Kharg Island would cripple Iran’s oil exporting business, which — thanks to China’s purchases of Iranian oil — is keeping Iran’s economy afloat.
Israel may want to target Iran’s nuclear weapons sites, but those targets are too deeply buried for a small strike.
The question, now, is how long the Israelis will wait to appease Mr. Biden. Their attack on the Gaza city of Rafah has to happen if they are going to win the war Hamas started on Oct. 7. Unless that campaign is carried out, Hamas will survive and, by doing so, win the war.
Mr. Biden’s demand that Israel rely on diplomacy is absurd. Israel demanded and got an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council. As usual, the U.N.’s impotence was clearly displayed. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres wrote on X: “Now is the time to defuse and de-escalate. Now is the time for maximum restraint. Now is the time to step back from the brink.”
Iran has never, in the history of the ayatollahs’ regime, respected any diplomatic obligations. In 1979, it invaded our embassy and took our diplomats hostage. It continued its nuclear weapons program despite the 2015 deal then-President Barack Obama negotiated with Tehran.
Mr. Biden’s vacillation between pressuring Israel not to do what it must and defending Israel against attack leaves both Mr. Netanyahu and Ayatollah Khamenei wondering what, if anything, he will do next.
The only certainty is that the longer Israel waits to attack Rafah and to strike back at Iran, the harder and more dangerous it will be for Israelis to survive.
• Jed Babbin is a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and contributing editor for The American Spectator.
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