Failed deterrence: Iran attack on Israel a second failure of Biden administration to stop conflict

ANALYSIS:

President Biden and his administration knew for days that Iran was preparing a major military strike on Israel, but they were unable to stop it.

It marked the second high-profile failure of the administration’s diplomacy-oriented policies over the past two years. In each instance, the administration could not deter a serious regional conflict despite advance warning of an impending attack.

In 2022, U.S. intelligence agencies provided extraordinary details of Russian military plans for the invasion of Ukraine. Still, the administration could not head off an invasion that set into motion the largest European conflict since World War II.

Those failures could have significant consequences. Fears are growing that China’s leaders will calculate that American power has declined to a point where Beijing’s military can act with impunity and launch a major regional conflict.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has vowed to take over the democratic-ruled island of Taiwan. At the same time, China’s hostility has grown toward Japan over the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea and the Philippines in the South China Sea.

Japan and the Philippines are U.S. defense treaty allies. A Chinese attack would likely pull the United States into a regional conflict in Asia for the first time since the Vietnam War.

Focus on Taiwan

Taiwan remains a critical flashpoint.

Retired Rear Adm. Mike Studeman, who until recently was the commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence, said he met recently with Taiwan’s leaders amid growing signs that China was preparing for either a blockade or all-out invasion of Taiwan within the next 10 years.

“The question wasn’t whether. The question was when,” he said of China’s potential move on Taiwan.

Critics say the administration’s deterrence failures result from weak policies that lack credible threats of military action or other punitive steps, such as imposing sanctions on the aggressor. The U.S. has imposed significant financial sanctions on Russia since it invaded Ukraine, but those steps appear to have little impact on the Kremlin’s decision-making.

For various reasons, foreign leaders in hostile states appear to conclude that the benefits of military attacks are worth the risks.

Even Mr. Biden’s direct warnings seem to have done little. The president signaled Friday that the U.S. expected an Iranian attack on Israel “sooner rather than later.” His primary public response was to send the Iranians a one-word warning: “Don’t.”

Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said the president’s warning clearly failed to deter Iran.

Mr. Biden said, “Don’t’ multiple times, and don’t isn’t a national security policy,” Mr. Pompeo said on Fox News. “It’s not even a deterrent.”

The president’s comment reflected what was said to be specific U.S. intelligence warnings that Iranian military forces were in the advanced stages of preparing for the massive attack on Israel, the key American ally in the Middle East. Most of the Iranian weapons were shot down before they reached Israel.

The Iranian attack was a response to Israel’s April 1 bombing of the Iranian Consulate in Damascus, Syria, that killed several Iranian military officials.

Iran said its attack was retaliation for a violation of its sovereignty.

Iranian terrorists linked to Tehran have been blamed for several other embassy attacks. U.S. intelligence agencies linked Iran to the 1983 bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut that killed 63 people, including several CIA officers.

Now, the world is watching for an Israeli counterstrike on Iran. Although the administration is pushing for diplomacy rather than escalation, Israeli military leaders have signaled that a response is forthcoming.

Critics say the president’s handling of the entire episode is another example of a failure of foreign policy.

“Witness a U.S. president who works a three-day week, struggles to read a teleprompter, and shouts more at conservative Americans than at America’s enemies,” said Hoover Institute fellow Victor Davis Hanson.

Russia brushes off U.S. warnings

In the months leading up to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, U.S. intelligence agencies penetrated the country’s military command and knew that Russian military leaders were deep in the planning stages for an invasion.

Yet the administration’s response was merely to provide the communist government in China with some of the intelligence in an attempt to head off the Russian invasion.

White House officials later acknowledged that the Chinese government shared U.S. intelligence previewing the Russian invasion with Moscow.

The administration’s approach to deterring Beijing appears to be a day late and tens of millions of dollars short.

The outgoing commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Adm. John Aquilino, warned Congress last month that the administration is not moving fast enough to deter China.

Congress authorized $1 billion for the administration to speed up weapons deliveries to Taiwan in September, but only $345 million worth of arms have been transferred.

Adm. Aquilino said the arms transfers are too slow.

“All parts of our government and our industry have to get together and move faster,” he said.

Rep. Mike Rogers, Alabama Republican and chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said administration policies have undermined and weakened deterrence against China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.

China, in particular, is drawing lessons on how the U.S. will meet its commitments to allies and partners in Europe.

“We must restore American deterrence,” Mr. Rogers said.

“It starts with this administration finally articulating a winning strategy,” he said.

Mr. Hanson said the president has severely weakened hard-won U.S. deterrence, beginning with the disastrous pullout of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in 2021. The Taliban took control of U.S. weapons after the American withdrawal.

Mr. Hanson said Mr. Biden either does not understand deterrence or does not believe in its utility. 

“Either way, the result has been a foreign policy disaster that exceeds the strategic calamity of the Carter administration,” he said.

The administration ignored a Chinese surveillance balloon that traveled unimpeded across the U.S. last year until public pressure forced a military downing over the Atlantic.

Critics also say the administration has failed to hold the Chinese government responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, which likely originated from a Wuhan laboratory where dangerous gain-of-function virus research was conducted.

On Ukraine, Mr. Biden sent the wrong signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin a month before the invasion by saying the Western reaction would depend on whether the attack is “a minor incursion” or major action.

On Iran, administration policy has been to seek closer relations with the regime in Tehran and a revival of the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The deal limited Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for economic sanctions relief. President Trump pulled the U.S. out of that deal in 2018.

As part of its diplomatic olive branch, Mr. Biden agreed to allow Iran to receive $50 billion to $100 billion in oil sanctions waivers.

As its deterrence policies have failed, the administration has taken steps that may have emboldened enemies of the U.S. and Israel, including rescinding the terrorist designation of Yemen’s Houthi rebels. The Iran-backed group is responsible for a monthslong campaign to disrupt commercial ship traffic in the Red Sea and other regional waterways.

Mr. Biden is accused of allowing presidential politics to impact his foreign policy decision-making. The administration’s public criticism of Israel over its war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip has steadily grown louder and more pointed to better align with some elements of the political left.