Florida out of reach for Democrats despite abortion amendment: Poll

A new survey of Florida voters shows that the Sunshine State will likely remain a Republican stronghold in this year’s election — even with abortion on the ballot.

A plurality of voters — 42% — say in an Emerson College poll released Thursday that they plan to vote for an amendment enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution compared with 25% who oppose and 32% who are unsure.

But asked whom they’ll back in the races for president and the Senate, Republicans still come out on top despite abortion being a major galvanizing issue for Democrats that’s bolstered them in other states.

Presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump led President Biden 51% to 38%, along with 11% undecided.

Republican Sen. Rick Scott clocked in at 45% vs. 38% for his Democratic challenger, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Seventeen percent were undecided.

The Florida high court upheld a current 15-week ban, and the six-week ban was written so it would take effect after the 15-week provision was upheld.

Florida saw renewed focus from Mr. Biden and Democrats last week after the state Supreme Court upheld a 15-week ban on abortion, with the six-week ban signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis still taking effect May 1. The court also approved a ballot amendment on the November ballot that if approved would assure abortion access until a fetus can survive outside its mother’s womb, generally considered 24 weeks.

Thanks to abortion, Democrats argue the state is ripe for the taking after more than a decade of Republicans dominating statewide elections.

The last Democratic presidential candidate to win Florida was Barack Obama in 2012 during his reelection. That cycle was also the last time Florida voters elected a Democrat, Bill Nelson, to the Senate. Mr. Nelson lost reelection to Mr. Scott in 2018.

“Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden,” Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said in a recent strategy memo.

The Emerson poll found that a majority of voters — 67% — feel the six-week abortion ban is too strict vs. 43% who say the same about the 15-week ban.

Abortion access was the top issue for 10% of respondents.

The survey was conducted April 9-10 among 1,000 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. Roughly 32% were Democrat, 38.5% Republican and 29.5% independent/other.