China could invade Taiwan in less than a decade, former Navy intel chief warns

China’s military forces are preparing for an invasion or blockade of Taiwan and could take action in less than a decade, the former admiral in charge of U.S. Navy intelligence warned recently.

Retired Rear Adm. Mike Studeman, recently retired commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence, said in a broadcast interview that Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, Vice President-elect Hsiao Bi-khim and senior Taiwanese national security and military leaders voiced rising concern that China will invade the island when he met with them recently.

The leaders also expressed concerns the United States will “isolate and withdraw” from the international stage.

“They’re concerned about where the Chinese are going to go. We’re talking about whether or not there would be a major offensive against Taiwan, and when that would occur,” Adm. Studeman told the Cipher Brief in an interview from Taiwan last month.

For Taiwan’s leaders, the question about Chinese action is not whether it will take place but when, said the former admiral who retired in July and also was a China intelligence expert at the Indo-Pacific Command.

Adm. Studeman said there are various views on when a Chinese attack on Taiwan will occur. Chinese President Xi Jinping has not set an “iron countdown” for military action, but has ordered his military to have the capability to either invade or blockade the island by 2027, he said.

“We see all the [military] modernizations. The Taiwanese do, too. They’ve got more gray-zone [activities] all the time near their borders, balloons that fly over Taiwan near constantly,” Adm. Studeman said. Gray zone is a military term referring to aggressive activities short of armed conflict.

Taiwanese leaders are “very concerned” about the mounting military pressure, Adm. Studeman said, describing it as a “slow boil” that could convert very quickly into a blockade or invasion.

“They think that something is likely within single-digit years,” the admiral said.

Debate continues over when China will take military action, but “many more people are saying that the next five years are very dangerous years,” he said.

Military operations could take place in the last 2020s or early 2030s because Mr. Xi is “single-handedly” pushing for taking over Taiwan and may be tempted to act before other problems, like the declining domestic economy, prevent action, he said.

“So there’s deep concerns and it’s resulting in a lot of preparations,” Adm. Studeman said.

The White House national security strategy published in October 2022 said China was working to undermine the U.S.-led international order and warned the United States and the world are currently in “a decisive decade” as a result.

“We stand now at the inflection point, where the choices we make and the priorities we pursue today will set us on a course that determines our competitive position long into the future,” the document warns.

Mr. Xi said during a meeting with former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou this week that foreign interference cannot halt his drive to unify Taiwan one day with the mainland.

“External interference cannot stop the historical trend of reunion of the country and family,” Mr. Xi said.