The purple runs deep in Wisconsin, where voters revel in flipping back and forth between Republicans and Democrats.
They went for Donald Trump in 2016 and Joseph R. Biden in 2020. They elected hard-line conservative Ron Johnson to the Senate in 2016 and gave left-wing Tammy Baldwin the nod in 2018. They ousted Republican Gov. Scott Walker in 2018 and gave Mr. Johnson another term in 2022, when they also reelected Democrat Gov. Tony Evers.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are at it again, with polls showing the state shaping up as one of the tightest races in the nation. The outcome is likely a predictor of who wins the White House this year, as it has been in the past four presidential elections.
“We polarized before it was cool,” said Joe Zepecki, a Wisconsin-based Democratic Party strategist.
Like other parts of the country, the metro areas of Wisconsin have turned a deeper blue and the most rural parts have turned a deeper red.
Barry Burden, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, warned against viewing Wisconsin as a microcosm for the rest of the nation because “it has fewer major urban areas and fewer voters of color than the rest of the United States.”
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“But it has a nearly perfect balance of Whites with and without college educations, rural voters, young urban professionals, and Black and Hispanic voters to keep the two major parties near parity,” Mr. Burden said. “The abortion issue is working to the advantage of Democrats, as is the more extensive campaign infrastructure Biden and his party have built within the state.
“The state Democratic Party is one of the best-funded state parties in the country, and the Biden campaign has already established dozens of field offices around the state while Trump has none,” he said. “The opportunity for Trump is that Biden is an unpopular incumbent and that Trump only needs to gain 20,000 votes to flip the state.”
Mr. Trump is set to return to Wisconsin on Tuesday for a campaign rally in Green Bay, marking his first visit to the state since the late summer of 2022.
The visit will coincide with the state’s primary, where voters will weigh in on the presidential race weeks after Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden clinched their respective party nominations.
The question is how many primary voters will cast ballots for candidates other than Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump.
Mr. Biden has made regular visits to Wisconsin since taking the oath of office. He returned last month to announce $3.3 billion in infrastructure funding for more than 40 states, including $36 million for a project in Milwaukee, which is hosting the Republican National Convention this summer.
Mr. Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in Wisconsin in 2016 by fewer than 23,000 votes and lost to Mr. Biden in 2020 by fewer than 21,000 votes.
During an appearance Monday on “The Dan O’Donnell Show,” Mr. Trump repeated his claim that he won Wisconsin in 2020 and Mr. Biden stole the election, triggering a response from the Biden campaign.
“After completely ignoring Wisconsin for nearly two years, Donald Trump is spreading the same lies that inspired a mob to assault police officers and try to violently overturn an election he knows he lost,” said Biden Wisconsin spokesperson Brianna Johnson. “Trump is reminding voters he has nothing to offer but resentment, revenge, and retribution — and no vision or plan to make life easier for Wisconsin families.
“Wisconsinites won’t stand for these dangerous and anti-democratic lies peddled by a self-obsessed loser,” she said.
Mr. Trump said Monday that he fought for Wisconsin farmers by scrapping the North American Free Trade Agreement and awarding the state a big shipbuilding contract.
“Wisconsin is very important to me,” he said.
The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump neck and neck in the state race.
The story is different in most of the other swing states.
Mr. Biden trails Mr. Trump by 3 to 5 percentage points in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, North Carolina and Georgia.
Mr. Zepecki said he is bullish about Mr. Biden’s chances in Wisconsin.
He pointed out that Democrats have won 14 of the past 17 statewide races and are benefiting from the growth of Dane County, a liberal bastion that includes Madison.
In the latest win for Democrats, Janet Protasiewicz won a seat in the state Supreme Court last year after she leaned into her pro-choice beliefs and railed against partisan gerrymandering that helped Republicans dominate the state Legislature. Her win gave liberals control of the state Supreme Court for the first time in 15 years.
The court-ordered legislative maps that Mr. Evers signed into law this year are supposed to make the fight for control of the Statehouse more competitive.
Ben Wikler, the state Democratic Party chairman, told The Associated Press that the maps could lead to “reverse coattails” for Mr. Biden.
“It drives up turnout among people who had been unlikely to vote in a way that can directly affect the number of votes we get for Biden-Harris,” Mr. Wikler said. “It’s why, I think, there are consequences far beyond the state Legislature of having the new state legislative maps drawn.”
Democrats have been running circles around Republicans on the fundraising front. Reports show that Democrats have raised $5.4 million this year, compared with $400,000 for Republicans.
Republicans have also been mired in intraparty fighting, including unsuccessful efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election.
Mr. Trump’s supporters have been pushing to recall state Assembly Speaker Robin Voss, the top Republican lawmaker, because he refused to support impeaching the state’s top elections official or push to decertify Mr. Biden’s 2020 win in Wisconsin.
The Wisconsin Republican Party did not respond to a request for comment.
• This article is based in part on wire service reports.
• Seth McLaughlin can be reached at smclaughlin@washingtontimes.com.
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