Russia maintains a significant quantitative advantage in men and materiel over Ukraine despite international sanctions and the losses it has sustained on the battlefield after more than two years of heavy fighting, British military officials said this weekend.
Moscow is recruiting about 30,000 additional military personnel each month and can likely continue to absorb the punishing rate of casualties inflicted by Kyiv. Russia also has sufficient combat power in the theater to continue attacks aimed at wearing down Ukrainian forces, U.K. military intelligence officials said on social media in their latest assessment of the conflict.
Russian forces have continued forward after capturing the town of Avdiivka in the disputed Donetsk Oblast in February. British officials said they have “almost certainly” taken control of two more villages in the region — Toneke and Orlivka — and are continuing to contest others nearby.
However, sanctions imposed by the U.S. and other Western countries are having an impact on Russia’s defense industry, especially at the high end. While the Kremlin has increased production in key munitions heavily used in Ukraine such as artillery shells, its more advanced and complex weapons systems have been harder hit.
“These systems in production and development almost certainly have an increased reliance on foreign components and technology,” British military intelligence officials said Monday on X.
While sanctions are disrupting the Russian defense industry’s supply chain, they also complicate payment mechanisms to Moscow, leading to a noticeable decline in Russia’s arms exports. The Kremlin’s share of the global arms trade has fallen to 11% from 2019- 2023 compared to 21% from 2014-2018, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
• Mike Glenn can be reached at mglenn@washingtontimes.com.
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