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The IRS could partially close and hundreds of thousands of federal workers would temporarily miss paychecks, but Social Security benefits would still be paid if the government shuts down as expected at midnight Saturday.
Mail would still be delivered, but travelers should expect longer airport lines. Visitors may be turned away at national parks when the government runs out of money at the end of the current fiscal year.
The impasse in Congress over funding for fiscal 2024 also would result in 1.3 million active-duty U.S. troops not getting paid until lawmakers approve new appropriations. They would receive back pay missed during the shutdown.
The operations of three special counsels wouldn’t be interrupted in their investigations of President Biden (classified documents), son Hunter Biden (firearms and tax violations) and former President Donald Trump (classified documents and 2020 election interference).
The government shutdown of 2018-2019 lasted 34 days and was the longest in modern history. Nobody knows whether this one would be longer.
Here are some of the expected effects of a shutdown:
Federal workers and troops
Each federal agency determines which workers are essential during a shutdown. All others are furloughed and sent home. The vast majority of federal employees would start missing their biweekly paychecks on Oct. 13. By law, they would receive back pay when the impasse is resolved.
Because new funding for the Pentagon hasn’t been approved, active-duty troops wouldn’t receive paychecks until the shutdown ends.
The IRS
The federal tax collectors haven’t released a contingency plan for the shutdown, but the IRS typically cuts back drastically on its operations. During the last shutdown, about 12% of IRS workers remained on the job.
The IRS could use some of its $80 billion in funding from last year’s Inflation Reduction Act to keep some services running, although officials haven’t announced their plans. Furloughs likely would prevent workers from helping resolve taxpayer disputes or answering phones.
Individual taxpayers and businesses that requested six-month extensions for their tax returns in April would still be required to file by Oct. 16.
Entitlements
Social Security checks would be delivered as usual because the benefit is tied to payroll taxes instead of annual appropriations. The agency also would continue to issue new and replacement Social Security cards.
Medicare and Medicaid benefits would continue, although the Social Security Administration would not issue replacement Medicare cards.
Food stamps could be delayed.
Travel
Most federal employees in travel-related jobs would remain at work without getting paid. The Transportation Security Administration would keep all but 4,000 of its 59,000 employees on the job. Air traffic controllers also would remain on the job without paychecks.
Air travelers can expect delays, as happened during the last shutdown when higher levels of no-show workers hit airports.
The State Department would continue issuing visas and passports in the U.S. and abroad, although building closures could affect some services.
Amtrak would continue to operate.
The border
Customs and Border Protection is treated as an essential law enforcement operation and would keep working during a shutdown. Ports of entry at the overwhelmed southern border would continue to operate, as would Border Patrol agents.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, Kentucky Republican, has questioned the wisdom of House Republicans forcing a shutdown over the issue of border security. He said the result would be Customs and Border Patrol workers trying to prevent smuggling and illegal migrant crossings without being paid.
Veterans and defense
Active-duty troops would remain at their posts, but most civilian Defense Department employees would be furloughed. Military burials, as well as tours at Arlington National Cemetery, would continue.
Veteran benefits, including health care, disability checks and pensions, would continue to be paid. Nearly all 414,000 employees at the Department of Veterans Affairs would continue working.
Head Start
The White House estimated that about 10,000 children would lose care services starting in October because of disruptions of programs such as Head Start, which could force some child care centers to close.
Postal Service
Mail delivery would continue, and post offices would remain open.
National parks
The National Park Service allowed at least some parks, roads, trails and open-air memorials to remain open during past government shutdowns, but without guides or maintenance such as the cleaning of restrooms. It’s unclear what the park service would do in this shutdown.
During the 2018-2019 shutdown, memorials on the National Mall in Washington stayed open without restrooms or visitor services. During the 2013 shutdown, the park service turned away millions of visitors at roughly 400 parks and other sites.
Federal Reserve
The central bank does not receive appropriations from Congress and would remain in operation. That means the Fed would have its next meeting on Nov. 1, when it could raise interest rates again.
• Dave Boyer can be reached at dboyer@washingtontimes.com.
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