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The toxic cocktail of terrorism and political instability sweeping across Africa is reaching a new peak, and hope for the tide to turn is hitting a new low.
Analysts say the U.S. and its partners are rapidly running out of viable options to stop what has been described as a raging wildfire of Islamic extremism moving through Africa’s Sahel region and elsewhere. A rash of military coups that have upended weak central governments, such as the recent upheaval in Niger, have worsened a dysfunctional situation.
Adding to the powder keg, Western forces are cutting back while Russia’s Wagner Group mercenary army and other foreign actors are expanding their reach. One of the Wagner Group’s stated aims is to help government forces contain the terrorist outfits operating with near impunity in some areas, but its fighters reportedly have launched raids on civilian noncombatants and, in some cases, used kidnapping and torture as tools of the trade. Such brutal actions deepen local resentment toward governments and their hired-gun Russian partners, fueling more political instability and creating an even bigger power vacuum that Islamic State and al Qaeda affiliates rush in to exploit.
Specialists are sounding the alarm as the vicious cycle spirals out of control and terrorist movements in Africa set a course for operations farther afield.
“There’s little cause for optimism that the tide is going to turn against al-Shabab or al Qaeda or the Islamic State groups that are in both the Sahel and in West Africa,” said Katherine Zimmerman, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who closely tracks extremist groups across Africa, the Middle East and beyond.
“What’s readily apparent is that the presence of these groups is interacting with the local conditions, particularly the local insurgencies, the weak governance and the few resources that most governments have on hand to improve the daily lives of their citizens,” she said in an interview. “Add on top of that the cost to try and counter these groups, [and] it’s an almost insurmountable challenge in the region.”
Downward spiral
The Sahel region, which includes parts of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, has become one of the world’s most fertile breeding grounds for ISIS, al Qaeda, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin and other extremist groups. In 2022, the region accounted for 43% of the 6,701 global deaths from terrorism, up from just 1% in 2007, according to the most recent Global Terrorism Index, produced annually by the Australia-based Institute for Economics and Peace.
More people died from terrorism in the Sahel last year than in South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa combined, the think tank said. Burkina Faso and Mali topped the list as the most deadly sites for terrorist violence.
Niger is becoming more dangerous despite more than 1,000 U.S. troops at two drone bases. In July, a military mutiny ousted Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum, though the Biden administration has not formally labeled the situation a coup.
Ms. Zimmerman said regional governments keep falling into a “security trap.”
“Which is the idea that if they’re able to combat these [terrorist] groups using security forces … increasing raids on insurgent positions, that will somehow deliver the stability they’re looking for. And it has not,” she said.
Until recently, Niger was one of the continent’s few bona fide democracies. The country marked its first peaceful power transfer from President Mahamadou Issoufou to Mr. Bazoum in April 2021. Before that era of democracy, Niger was marked by several decades of military rule and numerous coups.
The country is now experiencing the unexpected political upheavals of other regional players. At least six coups have been attempted in Sahel nations over the past four years, and four have succeeded. Mali has had two military coups this decade alone.
Ironically, some of those coup leaders appear to have had U.S. military training, fueling criticism that America’s security-focused approach to the Middle East and Africa ultimately creates as many problems as it solves.
In Niger, the coup has had a direct impact on security. Troops from France, the former colonial power that has long led the counterterrorism mission in the region, are withdrawing and will be gone by the end of the year. President Emmanuel Macron even ordered the French ambassador to Niger to return home immediately.
“We are ending our military cooperation with the de facto authorities in Niger because they no longer want to fight terrorism,” Mr. Macron said in an interview Sunday on French television. France will continue to offer military support to African governments fighting terrorist groups, he said, “but we only do it if it is at the request of democratically elected authorities and regional authorities.”
The presence of American forces in Niger and the U.S. ability to launch drone strikes could provide some sense of stability, but that has not assuaged fears that Niger will join Burkina Faso and Mali in offering relatively free rein for terrorist groups.
“There are now vast spaces in … Mali and Burkina Faso that can serve as the type of safe havens where terrorists have the time and space to plot more ambitious attacks,” Joshua Meservey, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, told a House hearing on Wednesday, even if those groups pose a “limited” direct threat to the U.S. homeland right now.
Converging factors
The increasing footprint of adversaries on the continent greatly complicates any U.S. response. China established its first foreign military outpost in Djibouti on the eastern African coast. The U.S. has a military presence nearby in Somalia, home to the al-Shabab terrorist network.
Those U.S. and Chinese outposts are far from the Sahel region, but Beijing has interests across Africa and has made massive investments on the continent as part of its Belt and Road initiative.
Those efforts and China’s interest in Africa’s vast energy resources and mineral deposits represent long-term challenges for the U.S.
The more immediate issue, particularly in the Sahel, stems from the Wagner Group’s role in the chaos. Even with the group’s founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, dead after a public clash with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the summer, Wagner forces play a significant military and economic role across the Sahel.
U.S. lawmakers note geopolitical repercussions, such as the security pact that Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso signed this month to aid the others in the event of internal rebellion or outside attack.
Rep. Michael McCaul, Texas Republican and chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said that pact is giving more power to the Wagner Group, which has helped prop up the military-run government in Mali and has offered to do the same in Niger.
“Now, after a military junta seized control from the democratically elected and pro-U.S. president, Niger has joined a security partnership with two other African countries governed by military rulers who took power in coups — including Mali, which is backed by Russian-controlled mercenaries,” Mr. McCaul said in a statement this month. “The Biden administration can no longer sit on the sidelines as one African country after another falls to military coups, Russian and Chinese malign influence, and an explosion of terrorist activities. We urgently need to articulate and implement a clear strategy that reverses these trends, starting with the long-overdue recognition that the Sahel is the new global epicenter of jihadist violence that poses a grave threat to America and our allies.”
The impact of Wagner Group mercenaries on the broader security picture cannot be understated. Witnesses at the House hearing Wednesday cited statistics from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project showing that 60% of the Wagner Group’s military engagements in Mali targeted civilian noncombatants. Such incidents seem to drive up local support for extremist groups that cast central governments and their foreign allies, such as Wagner, as dangers to innocent lives.
The Biden administration recognizes the scope of the problem. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visited Africa this week and spoke bluntly about the threats on the continent.
“Far too many Africans still face persistent threats from violent extremist organizations,” he said during a speech in Angola on Wednesday. “Terrorist groups like al-Shabab and ISIS deliberately target innocent civilians and wreak havoc on communities across the continent, and their cruelty propels waves of suffering and instability that spill across borders.”
Mr. Austin seemingly referenced Russian and Chinese actions in Africa by saying that “other countries may see African countries as proxies or even pawns.”
“But we see African nations as partners,” he said. “The Biden administration believes that the future is being written today in Africa. And we want to move forward together through growing partnerships rooted in mutual cooperation and mutual respect.”
• Ben Wolfgang can be reached at bwolfgang@washingtontimes.com.
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